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hot_img UBS: It will be difficult for China to develop EUV lithography equipment comparable to ASML's top-tier products within the next ten years; mass production of DUV may take two to five years

According to Bloomberg, UBS analysts expect that China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities may struggle to make sufficient progress in the next decade to develop solutions that can truly replace ASML's cutting-edge EUV lithography technology. UBS analysts wrote in their report, "The stage they are currently at seems comparable to ASML's in 2004." Based on patent application activities, especially in the fields of light sources and laser subsystems, China's current technological maturity is roughly equivalent to ASML's level 15 years before it began mass production of EUV equipment.UBS also expects that China is likely to have the capability for mass production of immersion DUV lithography machines within the next two to five years. Although immersion DUV is not as advanced as EUV, it remains an indispensable tool in chip manufacturing. ASML's immersion DUV machines are priced at nearly $90 million, while EUV equipment costs over $200 million each. China is one of ASML's largest markets, but due to export restrictions, ASML is prohibited from selling EUV equipment to China. UBS pointed out that considering the yield and capacity gaps and regulatory restrictions, Chinese lithography equipment is unlikely to be applied overseas. An ASML spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. The report is based on UBS analysts' predictive views, and actual progress will depend on industry dynamics.

hot_img Domestic immersion DUV lithography machines have started small batch production, with plans to deliver about 5 units this year

According to a report by The Information citing informed sources, a Shanghai state-owned company whose name has not been disclosed has begun producing domestically-made immersion DUV lithography machines, planning to manufacture about 5 units this year and increase to about 20 units by 2027. The first batch of equipment will be delivered to major foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and ChangXin Technology, but the equipment still needs to undergo verification for accuracy, stability, and production line compatibility, a process that may take several months or even longer.Currently, most components of the equipment come from domestic sources, but some key parts still rely on Japan, and the performance and manufacturing quality lag behind ASML. In comparison, ASML is set to deliver about 131 immersion DUV lithography machines as early as 2025. Although domestic equipment has made the leap from prototype testing to small-scale production, there is still a significant gap before it can replace ASML on a large scale. Previously, Reuters reported that the U.S. is considering tightening restrictions on the export of lithography equipment to China and on maintenance services in China, and the delivery of domestic equipment coincides with this backdrop.
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