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Analyst: Waller rekindles the possibility of a rate hike in September, but the key still depends on the September non-farm payroll and CPI data

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.

4E: The decline in US stocks continues, the cryptocurrency market rebounds, and the market rekindles expectations for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year

ChainCatcher news, according to 4E monitoring, the U.S. tariff policy on its three major trading partners has been implemented, and investors' concerns about the escalation and expansion of the trade war have intensified. U.S. stocks opened lower across the board on Tuesday, with the three major indices at one point dropping nearly 2% in the early session. However, as the U.S. Secretary of Commerce hinted that Trump might lower tariffs on Canada and Mexico, coupled with investors betting again that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates due to recession risks, the decline in U.S. stocks eased. Ultimately, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.55%, the Nasdaq fell 0.35%, and the S&P 500 index dropped 1.22%. Large tech stocks initially fell collectively but turned to gains at midday, with some individual stocks closing higher.The cryptocurrency market followed the decline of U.S. stocks after their opening, with Bitcoin briefly dropping to a low of 81,500. However, as the decline in U.S. stocks narrowed, the market also began to rebound. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was reported at 87,500 USD, up 4.25% in 24 hours. Ethereum, after falling below 2,000 USD, returned above 2,100 USD, with a 24-hour increase of 5.8%. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been significantly influenced by information, with high volatility, increased operational difficulty, light trading, and no significant changes in on-chain activity.In the forex and commodities sector, following Trump's implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the U.S. dollar index fell over 0.9% during the day, hitting a three-month low; crude oil has fallen for three consecutive days, with U.S. oil reaching a new low since December last year; rising safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar supported an increase of over 1.2% during the day.The escalation of trade tensions has heightened market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. After the U.S. fulfilled its threat of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, investors increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, for the first time since mid-December last year. Additionally, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce hinted that Trump might announce a grace period for tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods as early as the 5th, and the market is closely watching whether this event will bring about a turnaround.
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