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ADA $0.2546 +1.94%
BCH $449.66 +1.46%
LINK $9.41 +1.36%
HYPE $43.79 -3.92%
AAVE $113.32 +6.53%
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nomina

Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a nominal value of 1.97 billion dollars are set to expire today

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that today 23,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $70,000, and a nominal value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point of $2,150, and a nominal value of $370 million.The current rebound in the crypto market has been declared over, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $70,000 threshold. In the past week, $75,000 has often been mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of options expiring at this price by the end of the month. The final breakthrough failed, falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement, and from the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated positions, making it an absolute resistance level. The lower levels of $65,000/$62,000/$60,000 are all areas of dense positions and can be considered as support for a decline.This week, the implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) of major expiration options have remained basically unchanged, with the main expiration IV for BTC at 50% and for ETH at 70%. The RV continues to decline, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to rise continuously. Only options accounting for 5% of the total positions are expiring, continuing to hit record lows. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to the price decline, the skew has decreased across the board, and the market is still in a bear phase, with bullish forces being very weak.

Data: BTC and ETH options with a nominal value of 8.9 billion dollars will expire tomorrow, and options market data shows that bottom-fishing strength is beginning to emerge

According to data from Greeks.live, 116,000 BTC options will expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.76, a maximum pain point of $75,000, and a nominal value of $7.9 billion. 206,000 ETH options will also expire this Friday, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, a maximum pain point of $2,200, and a nominal value of $980 million.Greeks.live analyst Adam stated that the current cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, with the entire February trend weakly oscillating above $60,000. Tomorrow, options representing 20% of the total open interest will expire, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin's open interest reaching a peak in recent years. Thanks to a rebound in the past two days, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased this week, with BTC's main expiry IV at 47% and ETH's main expiry IV at 65%. The downward price trend has eased somewhat, but market confidence is still lacking.In terms of trading, large bullish options dominate the market, with a significant amount of medium to long-term bullish trades following yesterday's rebound. From the main options data, the Skew has also rebounded comprehensively, indicating a bottom-fishing force in the market. Adam added that the market is still in a bear phase, with no new funds entering the cryptocurrency space and no obvious hotspots, while pessimistic sentiments are prevalent on social media, suggesting that bottom panic may not have arrived yet.
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