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Citigroup: The reasons for interest rate hikes have disappeared, expecting the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in October

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

The UK FCA has released the final framework for cryptocurrency regulation, with a mandatory licensing system set to take effect in October 2027

According to The Block, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) finalized a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework on Tuesday, with a mandatory licensing regime set to take effect on October 25, 2027. The framework covers prudential requirements, market abuse regulation, and stablecoin standards, applicable to crypto trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, lending and staking service providers, as well as some DeFi companies with identifiable controlling entities.Businesses can apply for authorization between September 30, 2026, and February 28, 2027, and existing anti-money laundering registrations will not automatically convert. Regarding trading platform rules, the FCA requires UK-qualified crypto asset trading platforms to conduct due diligence, meet entry standards, and publish disclosure documents, while removing the previous exemption that allowed fungible crypto assets to be listed without disclosure documents. Market abuse rules cover insider trading and market manipulation.For stablecoins, the FCA has removed the obligation to forecast the redemption of reserve assets, allowed limited group internal custody arrangements, and reduced the K-SII capital ratio for stablecoin issuance from 2% to 1%. Crypto assets on qualified platforms will be subject to a unified 40% net risk exposure requirement and a 40% counterparty default volatility adjustment. FCA's Director of Payments and Digital Finance, David Geale, stated that the framework is an important milestone for crypto regulation in the UK, providing regulatory certainty while allowing businesses to maintain innovation space.

The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to intensified selling of tech stocks, with Bitcoin briefly falling to a new low since October 2024

According to the Financial Times, affected by the intensified sell-off of tech stocks, Bitcoin has fallen to a 20-month low, and market risk sentiment continues to weaken. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $60,000, with an intraday decline of up to 5.4%, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. Over the past two years, traders have regarded $60,000 as an important support level. This round of decline occurred after a sell-off of large tech stocks this week. Traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will respond to inflation by raising interest rates, which may suppress risk appetite and prompt investors to reassess overvalued assets and turn to relatively safe assets.In recent years, the correlation between crypto assets and stock movements has been high, but this relationship is currently under pressure. Bitcoin and Solana have fallen 32% and 47% respectively this year, and even a rebound in the stock market has not led to a significant recovery. Part of the reason is that retail investors' demand for cryptocurrencies has decreased, turning instead to chase the volatility of AI-related stocks. Gerry O'Shea, Global Market Insights Director at crypto asset management firm Hashdex, stated that as large public offerings and AI stocks become the market focus, market sentiment remains weak. Analysts currently do not believe there are significant catalysts in the crypto market.The U.S. capital markets are still digesting the world's largest IPO, SpaceX, which went public on Nasdaq earlier this month, with AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic also expected to follow suit. Meanwhile, the important U.S. digital asset regulatory bill, the Clarity Act, remains stalled in the Senate, facing strong opposition from the banking sector and has not yet garnered enough bipartisan support.

OneBullEx May Member Day has started, OBE points can be exchanged for USDT at a 1:1 ratio, with a prize pool reaching 300,000 USDT

According to the official announcement from OneBullEx, the platform's May Member Day event has officially started. This time, it continues to offer a 1:1 exchange of OBE points for USDT, with a prize pool reaching 300,000 USDT. The event will take place on May 11 from 11:00 to 20:00 (GMT+4), divided into 10 exchange sessions, with approximately 1,500 exchange slots available for each session, on a first-come, first-served basis, until all slots are filled.It is introduced that users need to consume 20 points for each exchange participation. After completing the exchange, the corresponding USDT rewards will be directly credited to their accounts. Users participating in this event must have at least 500 points in their accounts, and the specific amount credited and participation rules are subject to what is displayed on the event page.It is reported that OneBullEx has designated the 11th of each month as a fixed Member Day, continuously strengthening user participation and platform activity through mechanisms such as point exchanges, task incentives, and community interactions. As the May Member Day continues, the 1:1 exchange of OBE points for USDT is further entering a periodic operation, and Member Day is gradually becoming an important benefit scenario within the OneBullEx points system.
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