q4

Most institutional investors believe that Bitcoin still has room for further decline, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, and the shift of funds towards areas like AI may still exert pressure on BTC prices. David Grider, a partner at Finality Capital, stated that the firm expects the market bottom in this cycle may not appear until the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes that Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in the range of $45,000 to $55,000. Even among some investors who believe the market is close to the bottom, there is a general expectation of no strong rebound in the short term.Research shows that most funds are currently increasing cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and adopting more market-neutral, hedging, and derivative strategies to cope with volatility. Meanwhile, institutional funds continue to focus on fundamentally strong areas such as DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets, rather than purely allocating to Bitcoin. Institutions generally believe that the high interest rate environment, liquidity contraction, geopolitical risks, and the flow of funds towards growth sectors like AI are the main downside risks facing the current market. In addition, some funds have also identified the leverage financing model of Strategy and the development of quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle.Regarding the year-end trend, the funds surveyed did not provide a Bitcoin target price above $100,000. Some institutions expect BTC to fluctuate in the range of $40,000 to $80,000 within the year and believe that improvements in interest rate cut expectations, a recovery in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act may become important catalysts for market recovery.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea announced that it will launch a pilot program for blockchain deposit tokens in Sejong City in the fourth quarter of 2026, to replace traditional government procurement card payments.The project has been approved under the 2026 regulatory sandbox program, allowing institutions to pay business promotion expenses in the form of tokenized deposits. Token payments can preset spending limits and available industry ranges, helping to reduce the need for manual audits and lowering transaction fees for small businesses by removing intermediaries such as card networks.This is the second application of deposit tokens in fiscal operations, following the completion of the first pilot in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure subsidy program. If the pilot proves effective, the Ministry of Finance of South Korea plans to further promote the program.

According to Caixin, with the official implementation of new regulations on loan assistance and the slowdown in consumer credit demand, multiple consumer loan assistance platforms showed a consistent trend in the fourth quarter of 2025: revenue and loan issuance scale declined year-on-year, and net profit fell sharply.As the loan assistance business enters a contraction phase, various platforms are seeking "overseas expansion" and investing in the "crypto space" as a second growth curve. It is reported that platforms such as Lexin and Yirendai have already laid out overseas businesses, with Southeast Asia and Latin America becoming the main battlegrounds. Weixin Jinke has been continuously investing in the blockchain industry over the past two years.

According to market news, the Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company LM Funding America announced its financial performance data. The company mined 22 BTC in the fourth quarter of 2025 and held 354.7 Bitcoins as of February 28, 2026, including 174 Bitcoins held in the Galaxy Digital digital asset receivables account, with a total mining hash rate of approximately 782 PH/s.

According to The Block, digital asset management company CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin miners are facing ongoing pressure to break even while accelerating their transition to AI. CoinShares' research director James Butterfill noted that the weighted average cash cost for publicly listed mining companies to mine one Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025 has risen to approximately $79,995.The price of computing power has further dropped from $36 to $38 per PH/s/day to about $28 to $30 in the first quarter of 2026, meaning miners are still under more pressure. The report also pointed out that a triple negative difficulty adjustment at the end of 2025 is the first since July 2022, with publicly listed miners' Bitcoin reserves decreasing by more than 15,000 coins from their peak, with Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot all having sold, and MARA separately announced the sale of 15,133 Bitcoins on Thursday.Regarding price outlook, Butterfill stated that a rebound in Bitcoin price to $100,000 "is not unrealistic," at which point the price of computing power is expected to rise to about $37 per PH/s/day; if it reaches the previous high near $126,000, it could reach about $59. If Bitcoin remains below $80,000 in the long term, the price of computing power will continue to decline with rising difficulty, but the exit of loss-making capacity may stabilize returns.In terms of the AI transition, Butterfill expects that publicly listed mining companies are rapidly accelerating their shift to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, driven primarily by the higher and more stable returns in these fields compared to Bitcoin mining. By the end of this year, the revenue share from AI for publicly listed mining companies is expected to rise from the current approximately 30% to as high as 70%.

According to official news, GameStop announced its financial performance for the fourth quarter and the full year ending January 31, 2026. Fourth quarter net sales were $1.104 billion, compared to $1.283 billion in the same period last year; net profit was $127.9 million, compared to $131.3 million in the same period last year. As of the end of the fourth quarter, cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $9 billion, with Bitcoin and related receivables valued at $368.4 million.In addition, the company's full year net sales were $3.63 billion, compared to $3.823 billion in the same period last year; net profit was $418.4 million, compared to $131.3 million in the same period last year.

SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that the current Bitcoin bear market can be explained by the four-year cycle theory and long-term holders selling at the psychological price level of $100,000. He pointed out that while the inflow of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs has made the four-year cycle "milder," it has not completely eliminated this traditional cycle, and the collective belief of market participants can create a self-fulfilling prophecy.He predicts that Bitcoin will exhibit a volatile trend for most of 2026, with a rise beginning in the fourth quarter as part of a new bull market cycle. Scaramucci mentioned that market participants, including himself, had generally expected Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 by 2025, driven by the pro-crypto agenda of the Trump administration and a warming regulatory environment, but the market crash in October completely shattered this consensus.He used the example of Bitcoin's performance in early 2023 following the FTX collapse in November 2022 to illustrate that the market often moves in the opposite direction of mainstream sentiment, with bull markets typically starting during periods of "extreme apathy and lack of interest." The current bear market is considered a "normal" adjustment consistent with past corrections.

Jack Dorsey's payment company Block, Inc. has just disclosed that it acquired an additional 340 bitcoins in the fourth quarter of 2025, worth $22 million.

According to Businesswire, Nasdaq-listed SUI treasury company Sui Group Holdings released its 2025 performance report, which shows a net loss of $221.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, or a diluted loss per share of $5.52, compared to a net loss of approximately $91,000 for the fourth quarter of 2024, or a diluted loss per share of $0.01.As of February 23, the company's SUI token holdings increased to 108,368,594 tokens, nearly all of which are staked, with an average daily yield of about 5,000 SUI. The company also disclosed that it has completed the repurchase of 7,801,042 shares of common stock under the previously approved $50 million stock repurchase plan, accounting for 8.8% of the issued common stock.

According to CoinTelegraph, MARA Holdings (MARA) reported a net loss of $1.31 billion for the full year of 2025, compared to a net profit of $541 million in 2024, despite its revenue increasing from $656.4 million to $907.1 million.The company posted a net loss of $1.71 billion in the fourth quarter, with a diluted loss per share of $4.52, while the same period last year saw a net profit of $528.3 million, or a diluted earnings per share of $1.24.In terms of production, MARA mined a total of 8,799 bitcoins in 2025, with 2,011 bitcoins mined in the fourth quarter. As of the end of 2025, it held 53,822 bitcoins.The company stated that its fourth-quarter net income was impacted by a negative change of $1.5 billion in the fair value of digital assets and digital asset receivables. MARA's stock has fallen 46% over the past six months.

According to CoinTelegraph, TeraWulf (stock code: WULF) released its financial report for 2025, showing that as of December 31, TeraWulf's annual revenue increased from $140.1 million in 2024 to $168.5 million in 2025.In the fourth quarter, the company's total revenue was $35.8 million, which included $26.1 million from digital assets and $9.7 million from high-performance computing (HPC), down from $50.6 million in the third quarter, with analysts previously expecting an average of $44.1 million. Additionally, the company's Q4 loss per share was $1.66, compared to a loss of $0.21 per share in the same period last year.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, 13F filing institutions have collectively reduced their holdings in Ethereum spot ETFs, with hedge funds concentrating their selling due to the collapse of basis trade returns; traditional/long-term funds are increasing their positions against the trend, with Harvard's endowment fund being the largest new buyer this season.

According to Zero Hedge citing Bloomberg terminal data, Jane Street increased its holdings in the iShares Silver ETF SLV by a record 20.6 million shares in the fourth quarter, making it the largest holder of this ETF.Zero Hedge states that investors should be aware of the potential financial engineering and market manipulation behind the fluctuations in silver prices.

According to NVIDIA's Q4 financial report, the company's earnings per share for the quarter were $1.62, exceeding Wall Street analysts' expectations of $1.53 per share.The total revenue for the quarter was $68.13 billion, a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 75% increase year-over-year, surpassing analysts' forecast of $66.2 billion in revenue.NVIDIA's revenue for the full fiscal year 2025 grew by 68%, reaching a record $193.7 billion. In the previous two years, NVIDIA's quarterly revenue performance has consistently exceeded Wall Street's expectations.CEO Jensen Huang stated in a statement, "Our customers are racing to invest in AI computing." This outlook helps alleviate market concerns about an AI investment bubble. Huang has repeatedly downplayed concerns about the sustainability of growth in AI hardware spending. Wednesday's report provided some evidence that short-term worries may have been exaggerated.

The stablecoin USDC issuer Circle announced its performance for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025, which includes:The amount of USDC in circulation is $75.3 billion (as of the end of the period), a year-on-year increase of 72%;The on-chain transaction volume of USDC reached $11.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 247%;Total revenue and reserve income reached $770 million, a year-on-year increase of 77%;Total revenue and reserve income for the fiscal year 2025 is $2.7 billion, an increase of 64%;The net loss from continuing operations for the fiscal year 2025 is $70 million, mainly impacted by $424 million in equity incentive expenses related to the initial public offering (IPO), while the net profit from continuing operations for the fiscal year 2024 was $157 million;The adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year 2025 is $582 million, an increase of 104%.Circle stated that it is building an economic operating system for the internet, realizing various emerging possibilities from frictionless cross-border payments to intelligent artificial intelligence.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on X platform that institutional investors submitting 13F reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reduced their Bitcoin ETF positions in the fourth quarter of 2025, with investment advisory firms and hedge funds being the two largest categories of institutions by position size, becoming the main sellers in the market.Overall, the reporting institutional investors that submitted 13F reports sold a total equivalent to approximately 25,000 Bitcoin worth of ETF shares in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to Bloomberg, hedge funds that once fueled the U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) craze are rapidly withdrawing.Data compiled by CF Benchmarks, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the crypto trading platform Kraken, shows that the total allocation of Bitcoin ETFs held by the largest hedge funds has decreased by 28%. Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, wrote in a research report on February 19: "The dominant theme over the past two quarters has been hedge funds' de-risking operations. The spike and subsequent drop in October seem to have triggered systematic reductions." Brevan Howard significantly adjusted its position in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, becoming the largest seller of this spot ETF in the fourth quarter. Its holdings decreased by about 86% to 5.5 million shares, reducing the value of its spot position from approximately $2.4 billion to $275 million. Bitcoin prices have fallen alongside macro risks, and at certain stages, the declines were even greater, undermining the logic previously presented to institutional investors—that Bitcoin could hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, or stock market pressures.

According to quiverquant data, financial giant Jane Street increased its holdings by 7,105,206 shares of IBIT in Q4 last year, valued at $276 million. The company currently holds 20,315,780 shares of IBIT, valued at $790 million.There were previous community rumors that Jane Street was allegedly suppressing Bitcoin prices through high-frequency trading at 10 AM Eastern Time every morning. Additionally, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased their holdings by over 2.37 million shares of IBIT in Q4 last year.