rate-cut

According to Jinshi News, the divergence among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates and the severity of inflation will be reflected in the meeting minutes released early this morning. This minutes will reveal the full picture of one of the most divided meetings within the Federal Reserve, with an increasing number of officials adopting a cautious stance, concerned about rising inflation, while the number of those inclined to cut interest rates is decreasing.Deutsche Bank analysts stated that although the minutes may seem somewhat outdated, they still help gauge the changes in the size of the camp advocating for a more neutral forward guidance.

According to Jinshi reports, multiple institutions have conducted forward-looking analyses on the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve. Wells Fargo and ING both expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December. ANZ believes the Federal Reserve may restart the rate cut cycle at the September meeting. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America pointed out that economic growth faces downside risks, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in its first rate decision of 2026, pausing the consecutive three rate cuts since last September, in line with market expectations.

An article recently published by Forbes quoted Bitget CEO Gracy Chen's latest views on ETF fund inflows and the impact of institutional capital. She pointed out that the core driver of the current Bitcoin price has shifted to U.S. market liquidity, rather than capital from Europe, the Middle East, or Asia. Funds from these regions are more inclined to flow into gold and the stock market, which also explains the strong performance of gold, AI-related U.S. stocks, and Chinese stock indices this year.Gracy Chen believes that once the U.S. government ends the shutdown in November, fiscal spending and market liquidity will restart; if the Federal Reserve pauses balance sheet reduction and initiates a rate-cutting cycle in December, a new bull market for Bitcoin may officially begin. As early as January this year, Gracy Chen boldly predicted, "BTC is expected to break through $130,000 and further surge to $150,000 to $200,000." Although this target has not yet been achieved, she emphasized that once the government shutdown ends and the Federal Reserve shifts to easing, it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin reaches $150,000, whether in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. "I have personally reloaded my positions and look forward to witnessing Bitcoin set new historical highs with everyone."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%, in line with market expectations, restarting the rate cuts that have been paused since last December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Credit Mutuel Asset Management strategist Francois Rimeu pointed out that the Federal Reserve is expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle this week, which may last until 2027. He stated that the weakness in economic activity and the labor market indicates a need for more significant monetary easing, with the terminal rate expected to be lower than previously anticipated, ultimately dropping to 3.1%. Additionally, the institution expects another rate cut this year, followed by two more cuts in 2026.

ChainCatcher news, in the coming weeks, the U.S. stock market will enter a critical period that will determine whether the latest round of rebounds can continue. Employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be released over the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors.The current stock market seems to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 index has just recorded its weakest monthly gain since March, while September has historically been its worst-performing month. Meanwhile, market volatility has nearly disappeared. The VIX, or fear index, has only touched the key level of 20 once since the end of June."It is correct for investors to remain cautious in September," said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "The Federal Reserve, after a long pause, is reopening a moderate rate-cutting cycle, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions." This long-term bullish analyst expects the S&P 500 to decline by 5% to 10% this fall, before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 points.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, PGIM Chief Global Economist Daleep Singh stated in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may hint at a more gradual rate-cutting strategy at the Jackson Hole meeting. Last week, U.S. CPI and PPI data showed that U.S. inflation remains stubborn, staying above 3%. PGIM expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 100 basis points by next year, which is about 50 basis points lower than current market expectations.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, Jamie Cox, the executive partner of Harris Financial Group, stated that while the U.S. labor market remains strong, it is gradually cooling down. Given the significant revision of the previous non-farm payroll report, I expect the Federal Reserve to restart its rate cut mode in July. Current wage levels are stable, but changes are likely in the coming months. The biggest variable in the job market is real estate—early warning signs have appeared in the housing market, and the cooling of the labor market will exacerbate this trend.

ChainCatcher news, U.S. Bank economists stated that the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts in January is clearly the baseline scenario. If the labor market stops gradually cooling down, the rate-cutting cycle may come to an end. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, SEI Investment Company's CIO Jim Smigiel stated that the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates, but the number of future rate cuts may be fewer than in the past.He said, "We believe that a rate cut is possible, but the facts indicate that we are closer to the end of the rate-cutting cycle than the beginning." While discussions about improving government efficiency and cutting costs are also on the agenda of incoming President Trump, the likelihood of rising inflation is much greater. "Essentially, the FOMC will be forced to cut rates again in December and then pause rate cuts in 2025 to avoid the appearance of a policy reversal shortly after a 50 basis point cut."

ChainCatcher news, Canadian benchmark bond yields are rising in tandem with U.S. Treasury trends, as financial markets bet that Trump will reapply inflationary pressure. The upward movement in yields is bound to complicate the Bank of Canada's efforts to revive the economy and prevent inflation from slowing too quickly.So far, the Bank of Canada has been the most aggressive in easing policies among the G7 central banks this year. Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at foreign exchange firm Corpay, said, "As the risks of rising import prices begin to materialize, the Bank of Canada is likely to slow the pace of easing." Measures by the Trump administration that could exacerbate inflation include imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods and significant tax cuts that could lead to an expanded deficit. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Vice President Li Dazhi commented on the 19th that the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle began in March 2022 and lasted until July 2023, during which a cumulative increase of 525 basis points occurred. After a period of fluctuations, U.S. inflation has largely confirmed a decline, and there are also signs of a slowdown in the labor market recently. Therefore, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which roughly aligns with market expectations. (Jin Shi)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve has begun a rate cut cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00%, marking the first rate cut since March 2020.