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raze

Billionaire Dan Loeb refutes the AI bubble theory: The AI investment craze is far from peaking, and massive capital expenditures will yield returns

According to BusinessInsider, billionaire investor and hedge fund founder of Third Point, Dan Loeb, stated in a podcast that current market concerns about the "bubble theory" of artificial intelligence (AI) are greatly exaggerated, and the development stage of the AI industry is completely different from that of the internet bubble period.Loeb pointed out that technology giants, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, have collectively exceeded $700 billion in capital expenditures this year, which may reach $1 trillion next year, with the vast majority allocated for AI infrastructure development. He stated that to believe these capital expenditures will not yield returns is equivalent to thinking that companies are "burning money for no reason," but currently, these companies have strong profitability and ample cash flow, allowing them to support investments with their own balance sheets.Loeb emphasized that this is different from the situation during the internet bubble when "valuations detached from fundamentals," and does not constitute a traditional valuation bubble. He also mentioned that AI companies like Anthropic are experiencing rapid revenue growth and accelerated product applications, indicating that the industry is still in the early stages of expansion.Reports indicate that Anthropic's latest financing valuation is nearing $965 billion, with annualized revenue jumping from $14 billion to $47 billion, further strengthening market confidence in the commercialization potential of AI.However, there are still some investors in the market, including Michael Burry, who express concerns about the overheated valuations of AI, believing that massive investments may struggle to yield corresponding returns. Loeb, on the other hand, stated, "We haven't even scratched the surface of AI development," and believes that we are still in the early stages of long-term growth.

4E: 464 million bitcoins "awaken," DAT company's craze heats up, market faces a test of unlocking wave

According to 4E observations, on-chain analyst James Check's latest data shows that approximately 4.64 million bitcoins (worth over $50 billion) have been transferred from dormant wallets this year, setting a historical high. This wave of "sleeping whales" awakening is considered an important driver of the recent BTC consolidation, as the active selling pressure from long-term holders has weakened upward momentum. Analysts point out that although the funding situation remains robust, market confidence is becoming cautious in the short term, with a slight increase in exchange inflows, indicating that investors are adjusting their position structures.On the other hand, this week several major tokens are experiencing significant unlocks. According to Tokenomist data, projects such as APT, LINEA, AVAX, CONX, and ARB have collectively unlocked over $200 million worth of tokens. Among them, LINEA's single unlock accounts for over 16% of its circulating supply, becoming the focus of attention this round. Institutions generally believe that the supply pressure this week may exacerbate the volatility of some tokens in the short term, especially for projects with lower liquidity in the secondary market.Meanwhile, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are rapidly emerging as a new capital force. Since 2020, the number of DAT companies has increased from 4 to 142, with 76 added just this year, accumulating a total investment of $42.7 billion in crypto assets. Among them, Strategy remains the largest holder, accounting for about 50%. However, DAT company stocks have generally seen significant surges at the beginning of their listings (BitMine once skyrocketed over 3000%) followed by noticeable corrections, indicating that market sentiment is still primarily driven by short-term speculation.4E Commentary: The "awakening wave" of Bitcoin reflects the asset restructuring and confidence reassessment of long-term holders; meanwhile, the unlocking cycle and new capital forces will jointly shape the liquidity landscape and risk appetite in the next phase.

Opinion: The craze for crypto treasury companies is fading, and excess returns are hard to replicate

ChainCatcher news, Ledn co-founder and CEO Adam Reeds believes that recent market dynamics indicate that digital asset treasury companies eager to hoard coins are facing a turning point.Adam Reeds stated that Bitcoin treasury companies were once a revolutionary innovation in the industry, but the ability to achieve threefold returns may be fading. Over the past five years, MicroStrategy has increased by 24 times, while Bitcoin has increased by 10 times, making such excess returns difficult to replicate.Adam Reeds believes that signs of a cooling trend have persisted for a week, indicating that the crypto treasury craze, primarily modeled after Strategy, is waning. The total market capitalization of DAT companies has fallen below $150 billion, and the cumulative market capitalization of Bitcoin treasuries has dropped from $165 billion a month ago to $134 billion (despite Bitcoin's relatively stable price). The stock price of Strategy has also fallen from a high of $455 in July to $359 this Friday, and the stock price of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has seen a monthly decline of over 30%.Adam Reeds pointed out: "What is truly fading is the ability to create unique value propositions. Most DAT company CEOs claim that their sole goal is to increase the per-share cryptocurrency holdings, but it remains unclear whether they have unique management teams and whether they possess excellent capital operation capabilities."
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