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Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

Core Lightning, the Bitcoin Lightning Network software, issued an emergency warning due to the discovery of multiple real vulnerabilities in an AI report

According to CoinDesk, the developers of the Bitcoin Lightning Network payment software Core Lightning (CLN) issued an urgent warning to node operators after the team received a large number of AI-generated security reports, revealing several real vulnerabilities. The development team advised operators not to directly shut down the machine power but to restart the software in "--offline" mode, which stops communication with other Lightning Network nodes while still keeping it operational to continuously monitor the Bitcoin blockchain and protect the funds in the payment channels.The Core Lightning team began receiving a large number of AI-generated vulnerability reports since early August, some of which have been confirmed to be valid. Developers will keep the details confidential for two weeks to complete the patch development and plan to release a signed patch version for operators to verify the source. The source code and vulnerability details will be made public after the confidentiality period ends.This is the second AI-related security incident in the Lightning Network this month. Earlier in early August, BTCPay Server experienced a vulnerability that led to the leakage of credentials for some Lightning Network nodes and theft of funds. Additionally, the "Bitcoin Red Team," composed of 16 developers, used AI models to scan 390 Bitcoin code repositories at the end of July, discovering nearly 5,000 issues, 85 of which were rated as critical.
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