retracement

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Renowned trader Killa updated his views on the recent rapid surge of Bitcoin, stating that the next target for Bitcoin could reach the $88,000 range; however, if it quickly falls below $80,000, it may test the low of $70,000. Based on volume analysis, this scenario is currently unlikely.Killa, a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

According to the Daily Economic News, the July quantitative private equity industry experienced a systemic drawdown, with several institutional products seeing a monthly net value decline of over 20%, turning year-to-date returns from positive to negative. Specifically, among the 9 displayed products under Huansquare Quantitative, 8 have recorded negative returns year-to-date, with all monthly declines in July exceeding 20%, and the maximum drawdown reaching 22.15%; among the 14 products displayed by Mingcong Investment, 9 have recorded negative returns year-to-date; in Jiukun Investment's 15 products, 14 still have positive returns year-to-date, but the monthly drawdown is also significant. In contrast, Yanfeng Investment has shown relatively stable performance.Regarding this drawdown, multiple institutions believe that this round of adjustment is more due to emotions and trading structures rather than the end of the AI industry trend. Freshwater Spring Investment pointed out that AI is still rapidly developing in terms of model capability enhancement, cost reduction, and the diffusion of application scenarios. Referencing experiences from the internet era, it is normal for there to be fluctuations during the advancement of technological waves. Institutions believe that AI investment is gradually transitioning from the previous focus on computing power infrastructure in the "first half" to "intelligent equity" in the "second half"—that is, a phase where the cost of intelligent usage continues to decline and application scenarios are accelerated in unlocking, providing opportunities for supply chain companies that can offer cost-effective solutions for leading model companies and large cloud vendors.

According to a report by Galaxy Research, the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin remains effective, but the volatility of each cycle is narrowing.The report points out that the peak-to-trough declines in the cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2021 were 85%, 84%, and 77% respectively, while the maximum drawdown in this cycle from the peak in October 2025 to now is only 51%.Due to the relatively mild peak in this cycle, Galaxy believes that the bottom of this cycle will also be relatively shallow, with the baseline scenario expected to be in the range of $40,000 to $46,000, potentially before the fourth quarter of 2026.The report emphasizes that only 8 months have passed since the peak, which is far less than the 12-13 months typically required for the formation of a historical cycle bottom, and most cycle bottom signals have not yet appeared, indicating that the bottom of this cycle has not yet formed.