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Placeholder Partner: The current market resembles an early bull market opportunity; long-term investors are advised to systematically accumulate tokens

Co-founder Chris Burniske stated that long-term investors should not repeatedly struggle with entering or exiting the market, but should systematically accumulate tokens over time, and not confuse long-term investing with short-term trading. He suggested using his most successful investment targets as a reference, calculating target holdings based on the total supply of network tokens.He gave an example that the total supply of ETH is about 120 million tokens. If one previously held 10 ETH, based on the network holding ratio, the total supply of SOL is about 636 million tokens, corresponding to about 53 tokens; the total supply of TIA is about 1.16 billion tokens, corresponding to about 97 tokens. If one wishes for the TIA network share to reach 10 times the original ETH holding share, approximately 970 TIA would be needed. For ZEC, since its supply is similar to BTC, the ideal BTC holding quantity can be used as a reference for accumulation targets.Regarding the current market, he noted that many crypto assets have fallen 20% to over 40% from their highs, while BTC has dropped less than 10%. He is more inclined to believe that BTC's previous relative resilience has led to significant adjustments in assets with lower risk appetite, making the current situation more like an opportunity in the early stages of a bull market rather than a warning signal of a bull market trap. He also reminded that one should consider the possibility of further price declines, suggesting to invest remaining cash in batches and determine the investment ratio based on the probability of local bottoms at different price levels; even if some preset price levels are not reached and cash remains, it can still be acceptable.

first_img Anthropic co-founder: AI is expected to boost the US GDP by nearly 50%

Jack Clark, co-founder and head of public interest at the artificial intelligence company Anthropic, stated on Saturday at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting in Bangkok that the rapid enhancement of AI capabilities will bring about more rapid transformations. The company's internal models predict that under certain conditions, by 2030, AI is expected to boost the U.S. economic output by nearly 50%. He emphasized the need for international cooperation to establish "extraordinary and stringent rules" for this technology, noting that the window for policymakers to take action is narrowing.Clark mentioned that the potential size of the U.S. GDP is expected to reach $44 trillion, currently just above $30 trillion, with this forecast based on the assumption of continued technological advancement. He warned policymakers that increasing evidence points to a "technological singularity," where the pace of AI development will exceed human control, and advancements in not only AI but the entire scientific field will accelerate in the coming years. He stated that despite recent incidents of uncontrolled AI systems escaping testing environments and breaching websites and databases, AI is still under human control, but the window for building safety measures is closing, with only a few years remaining.As Clark made these remarks, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO, expected to go public in November. Recent reports indicate that its IPO valuation expectations have been lowered to the $1.5 trillion range, down from the previous market expectation of about $2 trillion. He also mentioned that AI could serve as a force multiplier for scientific discovery, and more countries could participate in AI development by building data center computing infrastructure; AI is causing job losses in areas like call centers and customer service, while promoting employment in fields such as scientific research.

"Bitcoin Jesus" Roger Ver renounced his U.S. citizenship to avoid taxes, and ten years later was pursued for nearly 50 million dollars in expatriation taxes

According to Reuters, earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a deferred prosecution agreement with "Bitcoin Jesus" Roger Ver, under which his fraud and tax evasion charges will be dismissed in exchange for a payment of up to $49.9 million in fines.Roger Ver, one of the earliest Bitcoin evangelists, bought a large amount of Bitcoin in 2011 for less than $3 million. In February 2014, to avoid high tax burdens, he acquired citizenship in the Caribbean nation of Saint Kitts and Nevis and renounced his U.S. citizenship the following month. At that time, he and his companies held at least 131,000 Bitcoins, valued at over $70 million based on the price at that time. He believed that by changing his nationality, he could put an end to the high tax burden in the U.S.However, the U.S.'s stringent "exit tax" completely thwarted his plans. According to U.S. tax law, eligible expatriates must treat their global assets as if they were "sold the day before expatriation" and pay capital gains tax. Although Ver reported and paid $1.03 million in taxes, he not only failed to report his personal holdings of Bitcoin but also severely undervalued his company's assets. Ten years later, the IRS confirmed his fraudulent tax evasion (which is not subject to the statute of limitations), ultimately forcing him to pay back up to $49.9 million in taxes, fines, and interest, which is 48 times the amount he reported paying in taxes that year.

Vitalik compared the mining costs of BTC and the inference costs of AI: the former has electricity costs accounting for nearly half, while the latter relies more on capital expenditures for computing power

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared that the cost of Bitcoin mining is roughly half derived from capital expenditures on computing power equipment and the other half from electricity consumption; in contrast, the cost of AI inference is almost entirely dominated by capital expenditures on computing power. This difference reflects the distinct cost structures of the two computing businesses. Bitcoin miners need to continuously pay for electricity and determine their profit margins based on mining machine efficiency, coin prices, and network difficulty changes; AI inference, on the other hand, relies more on investments in expensive hardware like GPUs, as well as equipment utilization and computing efficiency.The industrial boundaries of both are also changing. As the demand for AI computing power grows, some Bitcoin mining companies are beginning to shift their existing electricity resources and data center facilities towards AI and high-performance computing businesses, hoping to transition from pure mining to computing infrastructure services. Some mining companies are leveraging previously allocated electricity capacity for mining to enter the AI data center market. However, transformation does not mean that cost pressures disappear: mining operations are more directly exposed to fluctuations in electricity prices and Bitcoin prices, while AI computing businesses must bear risks related to GPU procurement, depreciation, and underutilization. Both types of businesses compete for electricity and computing resources, but ultimately, profitability depends on how these resources are converted into revenue.

Google Quantum Chip Breakthrough: Reducing Key Computation Error Rate, Early Bitcoin Wallet Quantum Risks Under Attention

Google stated that its Willow quantum chip reduces the error rate in preparing the special states (Magic States) required for quantum computing by about 40 times through a method called "Cultivation." The related research was published this week in Science, which is expected to lower the hardware costs of future large-scale quantum computers and draw more attention to the potential threat of cracking Bitcoin wallets.Magic States are a key resource needed to perform certain quantum computing operations, and their preparation process consumes a significant amount of hardware. Google's experiment achieved about 99.99% state fidelity, but only about 8% of attempts passed the screening. Researchers indicated that future experiments need to be scaled up and issues such as real-time operation and error correction need to be addressed. In March of this year, Google estimated that under specific hardware assumptions, future quantum computers might only need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits to crack the cryptography used in Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets.For Bitcoin, some early wallets' public keys have been public since their mining, theoretically making them targets for future quantum attacks; while wallets with undisclosed public keys may face different attack conditions. However, this breakthrough does not mean that quantum computers are capable of cracking Bitcoin. Google's previous cost estimates for attacks assumed the use of efficient Magic States preparation schemes, so this result cannot simply be understood as a 40-fold reduction in the cost of cracking Bitcoin. Research is still in the advancement stage of quantum hardware and error correction technology, and the complete equipment and engineering capabilities required for actual attacks have not yet been realized.

Circle: Revenue in the first half of the year was 1.4 billion USD, with nearly 60% used for partner and transaction costs

On October 16, Circle announced that in the first half of 2026, the on-chain settlement amount of USDC exceeded $36 trillion, and Circle minted and redeemed over $315 billion of USDC during the same period, averaging about $1.7 billion per day. The company stated that as of June, USDC accounted for approximately 77% of the global stablecoin trading volume, an increase from 60% a year ago.More attention from the market is focused on the income distribution of USDC. Circle disclosed that the company generated approximately $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of the year, of which about $819 million was allocated to USDC distribution partners and transaction costs, accounting for about 59% of the revenue; another approximately $473 million was invested in licensing, banking partnerships, settlement liquidity, compliance systems, product development, and multi-chain deployment, accounting for about 34%. According to the announcement, for every $1 of revenue Circle earns, it ultimately retains only about 7 cents in net profit.This announcement may be in response to market concerns regarding "the monopolization of reserve income by stablecoin issuers." Circle stated that partners can share corresponding reserve income by holding and expanding their USDC balances on their platforms; currently, more than 150 trading platforms, wallets, banks, fintech companies, payment platforms, and enterprises have formed economic interests tied to the growth of USDC. Circle also mentioned that Binance signed a five-year commercial agreement with it in September and invested $100 million in Circle.On the product side, Circle announced the expansion of its free redemption mechanism: all Circle customers can still redeem USDC for free through traditional banking channels, with the funds typically arriving within two business days; customers who make payments through the Circle Payments Network or use eligible products such as Arc, Circle Mint, and Circle Wallets will be able to enjoy free, near-real-time redemption capabilities.

first_img SEC approves the listing of exchanges for binary options based on KPI as the underlying asset

On October 13, Paul S. Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), issued a statement announcing that the Commission voted that day to approve a proposed rule change by a certain securities exchange, allowing for the listing of binary options based on specific key performance indicators (KPIs) reported by certain stock issuers.According to the approval order, these binary KPI options will be listed and traded on the securities exchange, classified as cash-settled, European-style, standardized options, and recognized as NMS securities, protected under securities law. Their listing and trading methods will be largely similar to existing standardized non-binary options and will be subject to the exchange's rules regarding customer accounts, margin, trading halts, auction mechanisms, market maker designations and quoting obligations, order types, validity periods, and order instructions.The approval order only covers the aforementioned specific binary option contracts traded on exchanges that comply with securities law and the listing and trading of standardized securities options, and does not involve similar products that are based on the same KPIs but have different structures. The statement also noted that the approval order does not address or exclude the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over contracts based on the same KPIs but designed to fall under its jurisdiction.

first_img On-chain options protocol Derive this year transacted 14.2 billion USD, accounting for nearly 75%

OAK Research researcher Lilian Aliaga wrote that the on-chain options protocol Derive (formerly Lyra) has a nominal trading volume of $14.22 billion since January this year, approximately 2.6 times that of the entire year of 2025, accounting for nearly 75% of the on-chain options nominal trading volume and 88.1% of the paid premiums. The nominal trading volume in September was $3.43 billion, and it has exceeded $1 billion in the first week of October.The article states that Derive completed its V3 migration on October 6, 2026, abandoning its own chain and opting for zero-knowledge applications to settle directly on Ethereum, planning to become an options engine accessible to other applications. V3 introduces mutually isolated risk domains, including Prime covering BTC and ETH, an independent HYPE domain, an Alt domain covering SOL, XRP, ZEC, and DOGE, and an RWA domain covering tokenized gold.According to the article, Derive launched V2 in December 2023, replacing automated market makers with an order book as the main source of liquidity, and will launch portfolio margin in February 2024; Lyra will be renamed Derive in August 2024, and DRV will be launched in January 2025. In October 2025, FalconX became the publicly confirmed institutional market maker quoting on Derive, with collateral retained on its own side and positions represented on-chain in fxUSDC.
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