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GOOGL $321.67 -1.04%
MSFT $524.91 +0.72%
META $642.91 -0.53%
NVDA $211.60 -0.44%
TSLA $372.89 -0.23%
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CoinShares: Bitcoin shows resilience, but inflation pressure in the United States still limits market upside potential

CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin has shown relative strength this week against the backdrop of renewed volatility in the risk asset market, primarily due to a rebound in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for the AI narrative and is instead focusing more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.The poor performance of some U.S. corporate earnings reports has triggered significant stock price fluctuations, which have also affected Bitcoin to some extent, but it still demonstrates strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals in the U.S. remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting on October 28. The market's expectations for another rate hike in December remain high, with the related probability close to 83%.The weakness in the housing market provides some room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that inflation remains a key factor limiting a shift in policy. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility due to exceeding market expectations; in contrast, maintaining interest rates and continuing to release hawkish signals would be easier for the market to digest. Overall, the current market remains in a state of intertwining bullish and bearish factors. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's enhanced ability to withstand stock market volatility, and the cooling housing market all provide some support for the market; however, inflationary pressures have not yet dissipated, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy. The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is expected to remain highly influenced by interest rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single industry or market catalysts being relatively limited.

Analysis: Brent crude oil continues to stay above 100 dollars, macro pressures may limit Bitcoin's upward potential

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

Chairman of the Financial Services Commission of Korea: Taxation on virtual assets must fully consider multiple factors, the digital asset bill has entered the final negotiation stage

According to a report by the Korean News Agency, Lee Won-ik, Chairman of the Financial Services Commission, stated during a comprehensive inspection at the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee regarding the taxation of virtual assets to be implemented next year, "Various circumstances need to be fully considered." On the same day, People Power Party member Song Yeon-sik questioned whether to abolish or postpone the taxation, stating that the nature of digital assets and policy direction have not yet been determined, and that the "Basic Law on Digital Assets" should be prioritized. Lee Won-ik responded that the relevant legislation on digital assets is in the final negotiation stage and discussions will be promoted as soon as possible; regarding taxation, opinions from various parties are diverse, and collection of opinions is still ongoing.The taxation of virtual assets in South Korea was introduced in 2020 through amendments to the Income Tax Act, having been postponed three times previously. The government is currently advancing administrative procedures according to the timeline for implementation in January next year, but some in the industry and even within the ruling party believe that due to unclear standards and insufficient infrastructure, the timing for implementation is not yet mature.

Trump stated that there will be no attack on Iran before the midterm elections, and there is still no breakthrough in the US-Iran negotiations

U.S. President Trump stated that there will be no bombing of Iran before the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the U.S. is evacuating some non-emergency personnel from Saudi Arabia, reducing troop strength at some bases in the Middle East, and increasing aircraft carrier and amphibious forces. The Israeli military reportedly deployed dozens of fighter jets near the Iranian border this week before turning back, and the target list for strikes is also being updated.The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency government employees and their families only within Saudi Arabia, citing attacks on Saudi civilian targets related to Iranian-backed Houthi forces. Additionally, reports indicate that U.S. military forces have quietly reduced troop levels in Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait in recent days. The Wall Street Journal states that the U.S. is dispatching another aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with a third carrier strike group coming from the Pacific, and is sending an amphibious assault ship carrying Marines. If the new forces arrive and existing vessels are not rotated out, the total number of U.S. naval vessels in the region is expected to exceed 24, currently around 20.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly continuing to advocate for a large-scale strike against Iran, and U.S. officials even suspect that Israel is deliberately provoking Iran to fire. Israeli Channel 12 cited U.S. sources stating that earlier this week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling aircraft flew over Syria and Iraq, approaching the Iranian border, with a flight path highly similar to that of an attack on Iran, turning back before entering Iranian airspace, which Israel claims was a drill and a deterrent. Pakistan, Qatar, and others are intensifying mediation, but the U.S. demands discussions on the nuclear program, while Iran hopes to first discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with no breakthroughs in negotiations yet.

first_img BitGo established an innovation department, BitGo Labs, initially focusing on the integration of AI and cryptocurrency

BitGo announced the establishment of a new research and innovation department, BitGo Labs, aimed at designing, launching, and validating the next breakthrough applications in the digital asset space. BitGo stated that this department focuses on use cases that can only be achieved through cryptographic technology, such as interest rates and yields that traditional systems cannot provide, and utilizes AI to complete builds in months rather than years.Initially, BitGo Labs will focus on the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency. BitGo pointed out that the AI economy still requires cryptographic financial infrastructure to handle micropayments, achieve instant settlements, and ensure asset security. At the launch of the department, several related projects were introduced, including the consumer application Gokubu, which uses AI-driven card optimization for user spending and is now live, allowing users to be assigned personalized AI financial assistants to help them obtain better rewards and transaction value.BitGo stated that in addition to the initial projects, BitGo Labs will also release research reports, protocol prototypes, and reference implementations, and collaborate with developers, scholars, and institutions in the cryptocurrency and AI communities. BitGo CEO Mike Belshe previously stated in an interview that AI agents are likely to use stablecoins as their native currency, and human control over AI will last longer than some predict. This statement responded to Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes' view that digital currencies like stablecoins cannot serve as the native currency for AI agents because they cannot be directly converted into computing power.
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