trendforce

According to the latest research by TrendForce, driven by rising prices of components such as memory, the material cost of the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro is expected to increase by about 38% year-on-year, making a retail price increase unavoidable. Apple may ease the extent of the price increase by sacrificing some gross margin to maintain shipment volume and market share. Analysis shows that the proportion of memory in the BOM cost of the last two generations of Pro models has risen from about 10% a year ago to about 34% in Q3 2026, and it is expected to exceed 40% in the first half of 2027. Memory has become the largest single cost item for the iPhone, replacing the traditional dominance of application processors and displays.TrendForce points out that Android manufacturers are facing greater profit pressure, especially mid-range and low-end models, with some brands potentially forced to significantly raise prices or discontinue loss-making product lines. Since early 2025, memory prices have increased by 5 to 7 times, and it is expected that global smartphone production will continue to be under pressure from the second half of 2026 to 2027. Apple may also adjust the pricing of older models in sync with the launch of new products to partially offset the impact of rising memory costs.

According to the latest supply chain survey by TrendForce, despite the United States implementing export controls on high-end GPUs, China's AI industry has not slowed down; instead, it is accelerating the construction of a domestic AI supply chain. The report points out that the supply structure of high-end AI chips in China is shifting from reliance on imported GPUs to a dual-track model of "domestic GPUs plus self-developed ASICs," with domestic solutions expected to capture nearly 90% of the Chinese high-end AI chip market by 2026.This year, the Chinese government is actively promoting the adoption of domestic AI chips, with policies prioritizing support for high-potential local manufacturers to significantly expand their market share in the high-end AI server market. Meanwhile, the domestic ecosystem is gradually maturing in key areas such as advanced processes, advanced packaging, and thermal management. TrendForce expects that, against the backdrop of an accelerated domestic substitution process, domestic chip manufacturers like Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, and Haiguang are likely to continue benefiting, and the related industrial chain will usher in structural growth opportunities.

According to the latest research by TrendForce, the tight supply of DRAM is expected to continue until 2027, and the uncertainty of the HBM4e verification schedule is prompting AI chip manufacturers to consider reducing the HBM configuration of their next-generation products. Starting from Q3 2026, NVIDIA has begun evaluating the HBM solution for Rubin Ultra, expanding from the original 12-Hi HBM4e to alternative options such as 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4, with the final specifications yet to be determined. Previously, due to the expected supply bottleneck of LPDDR5X lasting until 2027, NVIDIA decided to halve the SOCAMM capacity of the next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip module.TrendForce pointed out that the main reasons for the downgrade of Rubin Ultra from 12-Hi HBM4e include: the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 will limit the allocation of wafer capacity to HBM, and there is still uncertainty regarding the mass production schedule and yield ramp-up of 12-Hi HBM4e. It is expected that the HBM bit shipment volume in 2027 will increase by approximately 50-60% year-on-year, which will still be insufficient to meet the growth in demand. HBM suppliers will maintain pricing power throughout 2027, and HBM prices are expected to rise significantly. The final configuration will depend on the wafer allocation decisions of memory suppliers.

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, in June, the top three MLCC suppliers in Japan and South Korea (Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden) achieved a monthly shipment volume that reached a nearly five-year high, with 140 billion, 98 billion, and 40 billion units respectively, and the growth momentum continued into July. AI applications are the main driving force, with CSP manufacturers maintaining strong procurement demand for self-developed ASIC platforms such as Google TPU and AWS Trainium, driving continuous growth in demand for high-capacity, low-voltage, small-sized MLCCs.At the same time, Japanese and South Korean suppliers are accelerating the shift of production capacity from consumer-grade X5R to high-end X6S/X7R specifications, resulting in a severe squeeze on the production capacity of mid-to-high capacity (1µF-22µF) consumer-grade MLCCs, with mainstream inventory days generally falling below 30 days. The overflow effect of production capacity has led channels, agents, and second- and third-tier customers to urgently pull goods, significantly increasing order visibility for Taiwanese and mainland suppliers, leading to rising prices, with agents raising prices by an average of 20-25%, and spot market prices have soared to 2-3 times the original price. TrendForce pointed out that the consumer-grade MLCC market currently shows a structural mismatch of "weak end demand, strong channel pricing."