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BTC $74,166.55 -2.17%
ETH $2,017.12 -2.71%
BNB $646.64 -1.45%
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SOL $82.18 -1.68%
TRX $0.3677 -2.04%
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ZEC $542.33 -4.95%

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Wintermute: The key support level for Bitcoin is in the range of $75,000 to $76,000, and the market structure has not completely deteriorated

Wintermute stated that the macro environment improved significantly last week, with Brent crude oil dropping 9% due to easing tensions in Iran, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.5%, and U.S. stocks rising for the eighth consecutive week to reach a historic high, alleviating inflationary pressures driven by energy.However, consumer-level concerns have not dissipated, as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell to a historic low of 44.8, and one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI for May reached a four-year high, with input costs rising to their highest level since 2022, indicating a resurgence in commodity inflation.The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting also signaled that "if inflation remains stubborn, further tightening of policy may occur," and the market has not fully priced in the hawkish expectations. In the tech sector, Nvidia reported "explosive" earnings: Q1 revenue reached $81.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85%, with data center business growth of 92%, and announced a $80 billion buyback and a 25-fold increase in dividends.More critically, its Q2 guidance has already assumed zero revenue from Chinese data centers, indicating stronger actual AI demand. However, the market reacted unusually coldly, with after-hours stock prices barely moving, reflecting that AI trading has entered a "perfect pricing" phase, where simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough to drive the market.This serves as an important warning for risk assets, including the crypto market—if AI momentum weakens, weak consumption, sticky inflation, and a potentially hawkish Federal Reserve will re-dominate market narratives. Compared to the strength of U.S. stocks, the crypto market has clearly lagged. BTC hovers around $76,000, and ETH has fallen to $2,140, neither following the rise of risk assets.In the past two weeks, over $2 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, with institutional funds noticeably cooling, and marginal risk appetite has shifted back to AI stocks rather than crypto assets. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, hitting a new 10-month low, while the few assets that have remained strong against the trend are HYPE, which saw a single-day ETF inflow record of $25.5 million and signs of large institutional wallets continuously accumulating.The current market structure has not completely deteriorated; long-term holders are still increasing their positions, and trading platform reserves remain low, but the capital flow that determines short-term prices is turning negative. The key support level for BTC is currently between $75,000 and $76,000; if it falls below this range, the market may quickly test the $70,000 to $72,000 area; if it holds, there is still a chance to challenge $80,000 again.

Gate Ventures: The market is entering a phase of structural repair, with capital inflows focusing on leading assets and infrastructure sectors

According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, there has been a significant style shift in global stock markets, with funds rotating from growth sectors to value and defensive assets. The Dow Jones Index rose by 2.22%, and labor market data remains resilient. Macroeconomic indicators show a divergence, with the composite PMI preliminary value rising to a two-year high of 54.4, but input cost pressures still exist. Coupled with the ongoing impact of high interest rates on real estate activity, the economy overall presents a structural state of coexistence between expansion and pressure. The cryptocurrency market has slightly retreated, with BTC down 0.5% and ETH down 1.6%; the total market capitalization declined by 0.4%, remaining flat compared to last week, and market sentiment is in a moderate recovery phase.At the asset and industry level, the top 30 assets averaged a rise of 4.2%, with HYPE and ZEC leading the performance, influenced by factors such as ecosystem expansion, liquidity improvement, and easing regulatory uncertainty. In terms of industry dynamics, on-chain infrastructure and the compliance process continue to advance, with active financing and product iteration in areas such as prediction markets, on-chain derivatives, and payment networks. In terms of investment and financing, a total of 24 transactions were completed last week, disclosing a total financing amount of approximately $532.6 million, with infrastructure and DeFi being the main sectors of flow, and Kalshi securing a single financing of $200 million.Additionally, Variational completed a $50 million Series A financing, AEON completed $8 million in pre-seed financing, while infrastructure and social blocks recorded 12 and 6 transactions, respectively. Overall, against the backdrop of macro volatility and market divergence, capital allocation continues to trend towards long-term infrastructure and real application scenarios.

Trump Media transferred 2,650 BTC to Crypto.com, with a Q1 loss of $405.9 million. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $2.26 billion in two weeks, and IBIT holdings decreased to about 800,000 coins

According to BBX data, corporate Bitcoin reserves are under pressure, intertwined with the continuous outflow of ETF funds, leading to an overall cautious sentiment in crypto concept stocks. The core dynamics are as follows:Trump Media & Technology Group, Corp. (NASDAQ: $DJT) transferred 2,650 BTC (approximately $205 million) to a Crypto.com exchange address on May 22. The company's official statement described this as a "transfer rather than a sale," part of an expanded trading strategy, but the actual disposal method remains to be confirmed as of the report deadline. On-chain data shows that the funds have arrived at the Crypto.com exchange address. Previously, the company transferred 2,000 BTC (approximately $175 million) to Crypto.com about four months ago. The Q1 2026 financial report (May 9, CoinDesk) indicates that as of March 31, the company held 9,542.16 BTC (with a fair value of $647.1 million, and a purchase cost of approximately $1.13 billion); after this transfer of 2,650 BTC, Arkham's on-chain estimate of the remaining holdings is about 6,889 BTC (approximately $532 million). The Q1 financial report also disclosed a net loss of $405.9 million (compared to a loss of $31.7 million in the same period last year) and revenue of only $871,200. The company originally purchased 11,542 BTC at an average price of about $118,522, with a total purchase cost of approximately $1.37 billion, and the current holdings are still significantly discounted compared to the cost; during the same period, the company withdrew its ETF applications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana from Truth Social.The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded over $2.26 billion in net outflows in the two weeks ending May 23, ending a streak of seven consecutive weeks of net inflows. During this period, Bitcoin fell from about $82,500 (the recent high on May 6) to $74,305 (on May 23), a decline of about 10%, marking the lowest point since April 20. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: $IBIT) under BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: $BLK) has seen its holdings decrease from a peak of about 812,000 BTC to about 800,000 BTC, still accounting for approximately 62% of total assets in U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. CoinDesk analysts attribute this round of outflows to high U.S. Treasury yields (with the 10-year yield touching 5.01%) and systemic deleveraging driven by geopolitical pressures, rather than a weakening belief in Bitcoin's long-term logic.
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