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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in a recent report that the performance trajectory of gold ETFs over the past 22 years may provide important references for Bitcoin ETFs. Both gold and Bitcoin ETFs are packaged products centered around "non-yielding assets," lacking dividends, interest payments, or government backing, with prices primarily driven by investor sentiment.The report states that the leading gold ETF, GLD, once topped the list of the world's largest ETFs, then experienced a prolonged period of stagnation lasting about eight years, but each cycle's peak has gradually risen. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs may similarly undergo a repetitive cycle of "rapid ascent—sharp pullback—prolonged recovery," with peaks gradually rising with each cycle.

ARK Invest released the Q2 2026 Bitcoin report stating that Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter, dropping below the realized price for short-term holders, the 200-day moving average, and the on-chain average, with the technical outlook remaining bearish. However, the proportion of loss supply rose to about 54%, and the supply of long-term holders increased to a historical high of about 14.85 million BTC, which ARK views as a potential signal of seller exhaustion.The report also pointed out that Bitcoin has not yet fallen back to the on-chain cost range of about $49,000 to $53,000, and the downside risk has not been fully released; the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in Q2 was about 71,000 BTC, and the preferred stock of Strategy, STRC, fell to a minimum of $74.57.

Miami-based payment infrastructure startup Cyclops announced the completion of a $20 million Series A funding round, led by Nava Ventures, with participation from Castle Island Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, Circle, Lasagna Ventures, and GPT Ventures.

Cryptoquant indicates that its 365-day PnL index signal continues to decline, showing that the current BTC cycle may not have reached its peak yet. BTC is currently trading at approximately $62,656, down about 50% from its historical high of around $126,000 in October 2025.Cryptoquant's bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12, 2026, marking the first bullish signal since March 2023. Cryptoquant stated that this indicator had shown false positives in 2022, and the green signal itself does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. A major whale bought BTC worth $98,900,000 at the low of $59,734 on June 5 and made a profit of $3,500,000 within two days after the market rebound. BTC has since maintained above $60,000, trading at approximately $62,550 at the time of writing.

According to BBX data, the cryptocurrency market was under short-term pressure yesterday due to geopolitical shocks, but institutional capital flows showed a clear divergence from price trends. The core dynamics are as follows:BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: $BLK) subsidiary iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: $IBIT) experienced a decline in Bitcoin on July 13 due to the renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran (with $253 million in leveraged positions being liquidated). However, according to CoinDesk's daily report, ETF capital flows maintained a net inflow trend, continuing the trend of capital returning after breaking a 10-day net outflow streak on July 4. On July 4, the single-day net inflow reached $221.7 million, the largest in nearly two months, with Fidelity FBTC attracting $166 million in a single day and ARK Invest ARKB attracting $91.8 million. Subsequently, IBIT exhibited a structural divergence of "price decline but no significant capital outflow" amid macroeconomic uncertainty, interpreted by analysts as a signal of institutional capital continuously accumulating at the bottom of the range rather than panicking. Today's June CPI will be announced at 8:30 AM ET; if inflation is lower than expected, it will provide the most direct macro trigger for a new round of daily net inflows into IBIT. Breaking the $64,000 resistance level for BTC will be a key technical node for the market to confirm a bottom rebound and for institutional capital to accelerate its return to IBIT. CryptoSlate analysis points out that this level is the starting point for "retesting the June 15 high of $67,250."SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SOFI) subsidiary SoFiUSD stablecoin (launched on May 27 as the first built-in stablecoin by a national bank in U.S. history, covering approximately 14.7 million members and supporting Ethereum and Solana chains) is facing a critical timeline for the implementation of the GENIUS Act: regulators must establish specific compliance guidelines for the customer identification program (CIP) rules in the GENIUS Act by July 18, 2026, determining which stablecoin issuers can legally operate within the U.S. This deadline is only 4 days away------if the CIP rules are implemented on time, SoFiUSD, as a stablecoin directly issued by a national bank regulated by the OCC (SoFi Bank, N.A.), is expected to automatically obtain the clearest compliance recognition, compared to Tether (USDT, registered in the British Virgin Islands) which has a first-mover compliance advantage under the U.S. regulatory framework; if the CIP rule details are vague or delayed, it will create short-term regulatory arbitrage opportunities for all non-bank stablecoin issuers. SoFi's Q1 cryptocurrency trading revenue was $121.6 million, with a net income of $852,000 after deducting costs from the cryptocurrency department.

A report released by the Bank of Korea on July 13 pointed out that the global semiconductor market is still in a state of supply shortage, and the chip supercycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to last for a long time, which refutes market concerns that the chip cycle has peaked.The central bank's analysis states that the current chip cycle is different from previous ones, primarily driven by competitive investments made by companies to respond to the fundamental changes in the industrial ecosystem brought about by AI. At the same time, due to the current market being dominated by customized products such as high bandwidth memory (HBM), the pace of supply expansion is more constrained than in the past.Recently, concerns over excessive investment in AI infrastructure and potential oversupply of memory chips have triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, with significant declines in the stock prices of South Korean chip giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In response, the Bank of Korea stated that although there remains uncertainty regarding the speed of AI technology adoption and profit prospects, major investment banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley generally predict that the global semiconductor market will maintain strong momentum at least through next year.

According to FN News, the Japanese convenience store chain Lawson will launch a pilot program for JPYC (yen-pegged stablecoin) payments at its Gateway City store in Tokyo in early August. This pilot is conducted in collaboration with digital asset wallet provider Hashport, aiming to enable consumers to make payments using smartphone e-wallets.This is the first time in Japan that stablecoin payments are being tested in connection with a POS system. By connecting to the POS system, purchasing data such as the quantity of goods and payment times can be integrated into the existing store management system for management. Lawson plans to verify the stability of the integration with the POS system and the time required for actual payments through this experiment before deciding whether to fully implement the system.

Sharplink Research Director Steven Ehrlich published an analysis pointing out that Ethereum started strong in July 2026, with an increase of about 11% so far this month. Historical data suggests that investors should pay attention to ETH's performance in July. Steven Ehrlich noted that the core advantage of ETH's July performance is not merely volatility, but the asymmetry between rises and falls: when July sees an increase, the average rise is about 43%, while in years of decline, the average drop is only about 5% (from 2020 to 2025).Historically, months of significant gains for ETH are usually driven by "Ethereum-specific catalysts + supply-demand imbalance." The current market environment also presents similar opportunities, such as: institutional infrastructure is being built, the Ethereum roadmap is continuously upgrading, and corporate funds are consistently increasing their holdings of ETH. Currently, Ethereum is entering a new development phase, where institutional adoption, technological upgrades, and capital allocation may become important factors driving ETH's market performance.

According to the analyst thechessONCHAIN on CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and the 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155.On June 2, the 30-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating a weakening market momentum, but both are currently still above the zero axis.

According to Bitcoin News, analyst @gaah_im reported that the Bitcoin miner cycle pressure composite index has fallen to a new low for 2026, entering the historically "undervalued" range. This indicator combines the Puell Multiple and the inverse miner capitulation index, both of which measure the dynamics of miner income and costs, and their synchronous signals have historically been strong indicators of Bitcoin cycle bottoms.Previously, this composite index has synchronized crashes that occurred near major Bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024. The only previous time this composite index touched 0 was during the capitulation period in 2015, when Bitcoin fell from about $300 to $160 within a week. This indicator is exhibiting similar behavior in 2026, marking that miner pressure has once again reached a historically rare level.

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of continuous outflows of institutional funds in the United States, Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, forming a clear divergence from the record outflows of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysis points out that this phase of divergence has historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds are withdrawing, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, similar to the capital redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles.On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating that on-site buying is not strong, large wallets continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term capital accumulation."

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has released a report stating that the cryptocurrency market is entering the final stage of the current bear market cycle. Analysts pointed out that as of June 10, Bitcoin has been 252 days since its peak in 2025, with a decline of about 51%. In the previous three market cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its bottom 384 days after peaking; if history repeats itself, this round of decline may bottom out around the end of October. The report cautions that this model is not an accurate timing tool, and macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical risks still exist, but the reflexive nature of the cryptocurrency market suggests that historical cycles may self-reinforce.Cantor suggests that investors shift their focus from speculative activities to networks with the ability to accumulate lasting value, identifying Hyperliquid as a typical case of fee-driven token economics. Bitcoin remains the benchmark currency asset, Ethereum is the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance, and Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each have differentiated advantages but still need to prove sustainable value. Cantor has also included digital asset treasury companies Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies in its research coverage, giving them a buy rating, with target prices of $7.9 and $0.9, respectively.

The semiconductor research institution SemiAnalysis has released a latest analysis indicating that Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has clearly become the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer. Although its production capacity and cash flow are continuously growing, the institution believes that Changxin Memory still faces multiple challenges in equipment, technology, and market, and will not end the current storage "super cycle" in the short term.In terms of specific challenges, export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (such as EUV, advanced etching, and TSV tools) severely restrict Changxin's expansion into more advanced processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) fields; although domestic equipment (such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, etc.) has alleviated some pressure, it cannot fully resolve the integration and yield bottlenecks across multiple process links, resulting in its technology still lagging behind leading manufacturers by several generations. Additionally, Changxin's market share is currently still highly concentrated in the Chinese domestic market, with global expansion limited by geopolitical factors and customers' willingness to diversify their supply chains.In response to market concerns that Changxin might "impact the global market with cheap chips," SemiAnalysis clarified that there is currently a severe structural shortage in the DRAM market, and the increase in Changxin's production capacity may even struggle to fully meet domestic demand in China. In fact, the prices of Chinese memory chips are also soaring significantly, in line with the global upward trend, and Changxin is similarly a beneficiary of the shortage premium. Therefore, Changxin Memory should be viewed as a long-term structural competitive force, and in the current context of accelerated AI demand and constrained supply, it cannot shake the fundamental super cycle dominated by leading manufacturers in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

According to CoinDesk, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the significant decline in the crypto market in the first half of 2026 does not have a single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting funds to AI, and the typical four-year cycle of crypto may collectively lead to the continued decline of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 last October and has since fallen by about 50%. At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin opened near $89,000, briefly rose to just above $96,000, and then dropped to around $60,000.In the long term, the crypto industry will continue to develop, and the demand for fintech will increase as the number of transactions continues to rise, so they are not concerned about the industry itself or short-term price fluctuations. They stated that emerging industries like AI are absorbing "hot money" from the crypto sector, but in the long run, this could be a positive factor. When discussing prediction markets, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that the rapid growth of prediction markets as tools for price discovery and liquidity is a good thing for the public.Regarding regulation, Zhao Changpeng stated that separate bills like the U.S. Clarity Act are important but more tactical matters that will not determine the long-term growth of the crypto industry. He hopes the Clarity Act can pass and believes that if U.S. legislation is delayed, other countries may take the lead in advancing rule-making.Zhao Changpeng also mentioned that if the U.S. Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterm elections, there may be a review of Trump's support for the crypto industry and his pardons for crypto executives. Zhao Changpeng stated he "has nothing to hide" and is willing to cooperate if relevant parties seek information. When discussing political influence, Zhao Changpeng said he tries to stay away from U.S. politics but believes that any anti-crypto individuals may now lose a significant number of votes.

The Chief Information Security Officer of Slow Fog, 23pds, stated that researchers have exposed a high-risk vulnerability in CI/CD called Cordyceps, affecting the open-source repositories of major companies such as Microsoft, Google, Apache, and Cloudflare. Attackers do not need corporate accounts or any system permissions; they can simply register a free GitHub account, submit a malicious PR, and leave a comment to forge approvals, steal server keys, and push malicious code, completely taking control of the corporate code repository.