SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240529): IBIT Surpasses GBTC

Yesterday (28 MAY), Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari made hawkish remarks: although the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, he does not believe this possibility can be ruled out, and he expects that there will be no more than 2 rate cuts this year. Additionally, affected by weak U.S. Treasury auctions, U.S. Treasury yields rose during the session, with the two-year and ten-year yields at 4.956% and 4.564%, respectively. The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.55%, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq up 0.59%.

Source: Investing

In terms of digital currencies, the focus is first on ETFs. Yesterday, the net outflow of GBTC reached $105.2 million, but at the same time, IBIT with an inflow of $102.5 million supported the market. Thus, the holding situation of Bitcoin ETFs has reached a historic turning point. According to data recorded by HOLD 15 Capital, yesterday BlackRock's IBTC surpassed Grayscale's GBTC to become the largest Bitcoin spot ETF by net asset value.

Source: Twitter; Farside Investors

On the other hand, following yesterday's news, former Mt.Gox CEO Mark Karpeles stated that Mt.Gox is operating normally and will not immediately sell Bitcoin; Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn also believes that most Bitcoin will be held rather than sold immediately, which alleviated market panic over sudden news, causing the price to gradually stabilize back to around 59000. From the options market, it can also be seen that the overall IV level of BTC has basically retraced yesterday's gains, decreasing by 1-2% Vol, and RR has also rebounded. However, before today's settlement, the price suddenly dropped sharply to around 67700, indicating that the market remains cautious about potential selling pressure.

Source: TradingView

Source: Deribit (as of 29 MAY 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH trades

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC trades

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade