SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240216): BTC upward momentum weakens, ETH continues to break through
The bullish sentiment in the market for BTC quickly weakened as it approached the $52,000 mark, with the price maintaining slight fluctuations (-0.08%) over the past 24 hours, causing the implied volatility surface of options, including ETH, to steepen, with the front end dropping by about 1.5-2.5% Vol.
Yesterday (15 FEB), the U.S. January retail sales month-on-month recorded -0.8%, lower than the expected -0.1%. After the data was released, the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell below 4.2%, but then rebounded, currently reported at 4.267%. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate policy, returned above 4.6%, reported at 4.607%. The Nasdaq/S&P/Dow closed up 0.3% / 0.58% / 0.91%.
Although Chicago Fed President Goolsbee calmed market sentiment after the unexpectedly high CPI figure in January, according to Jin10, Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated in a speech yesterday that due to the strong U.S. labor market and economy, the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, warning that it is still unclear whether inflation will move towards the Fed's 2% target. His expectation is that the inflation rate will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than the market bets suggest.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: Binance & TradingView
In the cryptocurrency sector, the bullish sentiment for BTC quickly weakened as it approached the $52,000 mark. Over the past 24 hours, the price has maintained slight fluctuations (-0.08%), causing the implied volatility surface of options, including ETH, to steepen, with the front end down about 1.5-2.5% Vol. From the trading distribution, a game can be observed in the 23 FEB 52000 vs 48000 Put Spread, with selling pressure slightly prevailing. Meanwhile, there is still a large bullish strategy being established at the far end, represented by the 29 MAR 24 65000 vs 75000 Call Spread (720 BTC per leg). On the other hand, ETH's upward momentum continues, closing the day at 2819.22 (+1.53%), with a large number of stop-loss orders for in-the-money call options near 2300/2500 on 23 FEB and 2650 on 1 MAR.
Source: Deribit (as of 15 FEB 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, a large number of in-the-money stop-loss orders for ETH in the short term
Data Source: Deribit
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
