SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240311): BTC Soars Before Closing, Officially Announcing the Arrival of the 70,000s Era

Last Friday (8 MAR), the U.S. non-farm payrolls for February saw a significant increase of 275,000, but at the same time, the previous value was drastically revised down by 167,000, making the report appear weak; the unemployment rate surged from 3.7% to 3.9%, and the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly wages dropped to 0.1%. The market began to reassess the possibility of an economic recession, putting downward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield currently at 4.078% and the two-year yield fluctuating slightly at 4.488%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar, this week’s focus is on U.S. CPI data

Source: Binance & TradingView, BTC successfully broke through 70K

In the cryptocurrency sector, although BTC experienced a pullback after reaching $70,000 yesterday, a surge before today’s close officially marked BTC standing above the $70,000 threshold, setting a new historical high, while ETH also reached $4,000. The implied volatility of options skyrocketed again with the price breakthrough, rewriting recent historical highs, with BTC's implied volatility rising by 20% to nearly 100%. Overall, it also reversed the ETH Vol Premium, drawing the market's attention back to it. In terms of trading volume, BTC's trading in the past 24 hours has been relatively lackluster, and a new round of trading after the breakout has yet to arrive; for ETH, before surpassing $4,000, retail investors mainly traded a large number of March call options short, and after the close, large trades became active, trading 16,250 sets of April 4000 vs 5000 Call Spread, maintaining an optimistic outlook on ETH's upward potential.

Source: Deribit (as of 11 MAR 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit

Data Source: Deribit

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade