SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240418): Continuous Outflow from ETFs, Halving Enters Final Countdown

2024-04-19 10:54:23

Collection

Yesterday (17 APR), due to strong auction demand, U.S. Treasury yields collectively pulled back slightly from their highs, with the ten-year yield returning below 4.6%, reported at 4.575%. The two-year yield, sensitive to interest rate policies, was reported at 4.924%, indicating a cooling of risk sentiment...

Yesterday (17 APR), due to strong auction demand, U.S. Treasury yields collectively pulled back slightly from their highs, with the ten-year yield falling back below 4.6%, reported at 4.575%. The two-year yield, sensitive to interest rate policies, was reported at 4.924%, indicating a cooling of risk sentiment. The U.S. stock market remains less optimistic, with all three major indices closing lower, and the SP 500 index declining for the fourth consecutive day. The risk sentiment in the stock market has shifted dramatically over the past two weeks, which has also put pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In the realm of digital currencies, ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days. In addition to ongoing sell-offs from Grayscale, Cathie Wood's ARKB, the third-largest Bitcoin spot ETF in the market, has also experienced outflows. Some analysts point out that outflows can be a sign of product maturity, as users may be looking to reduce risk exposure during BTC's volatility cycles or simply taking profits.

Source: Farside Investors

Additionally, Google Trends data shows that the search volume for the term "Bitcoin halving" has reached 45 recently and is expected to reach 100 in the near future (indicating that the term has reached "peak popularity").

Source: Google Trends Data

From a price perspective, it was another tough night for bulls last night, as BTC broke below the important technical support level of $62,000, with the market now praying for the next level of support at $59,000. However, the number of liquidated contracts last night was significantly reduced compared to before, and the high leverage concentrated on BTC has been greatly reduced, which is somewhat indicative of a healthier market.

Source: SignalPlus

In terms of options, the IV level of ETH has slightly increased overall, with a significant net inflow of Long Puts for 19 APR/31 MAY observed in trading; for BTC, the short-term IV has slightly risen due to yesterday's volatility and the impending halving event. In terms of trading, a large calendar Call Spread of 1875 BTC*2 (buying May 80,000 and selling September 90,000) has attracted market attention, expressing expectations for market direction post-halving.