Will the market stabilize after Trump's intervention?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

Many people did not wait for Altcoin Season, but seemed to have waited for Trump Season.

Today (March 2nd evening Beijing time), Trump posted on Truth Social (a social media platform similar to Twitter, created by Trump Media Technology Group) announcing that the U.S. will advance a crypto strategic reserve including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, etc., ensuring that the U.S. becomes the world's crypto capital. As shown in the image below.

Affected by this news, the cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump began to rise rapidly, with ADA increasing by about 80% in less than an hour. Meanwhile, the overall sentiment in the crypto market also started to warm up, with various altcoins following suit. As shown in the image below.

Thus, the same scene appeared again, with many people starting to shout that the bull market has arrived, and some KOLs also shifted from bearish to bullish, continuing to recommend various altcoin projects for everyone to hop on.

Early this morning, I saw partners in the group discussing this matter, and one partner jokingly said: "A fierce operation like a tiger, the rise and fall all depend on Trump."

So, what will happen in the market next?

First, let’s simply describe the feeling of today’s market: it’s like a young person who was about to rest on the sofa after a climax, but suddenly an old guy ran in and gave him a shot of adrenaline, so the young person got hyped again, continuing to play music and dance. At this moment, the audience who was originally planning to leave and some new viewers who didn’t understand the situation ran back to watch.

In the previous article, we mentioned three main factors that might affect the market's next trend: narrative, economy, and policy. As shown in the image below.

As for the current market, we have not seen any new narrative stories or internal innovation drivers (as for the so-called innovative OdinFun that many partners have been promoting on social platforms in recent days, I personally will not comment or participate, but this does not affect people's short-term speculation and PvP), and there are no new stimuli in the macroeconomic aspect. Therefore, today’s market rise relies more on Trump’s post, which is a kind of expectation in terms of policy. Additionally, this Friday (March 7th Eastern Time), the White House will hold its first cryptocurrency summit, where Trump will deliver a speech.

In short, Trump’s statement today, combined with the upcoming cryptocurrency summit expectations, seems to have jointly reversed the extreme panic sentiment that has spread in the market over the past few days.

Last year, Bitcoin was able to rise to $100,000 mainly due to the drive of ETFs and the expectation of a "crypto-friendly president" like Trump. If the Trump administration can introduce more favorable policies in the coming time this year, it certainly does not rule out the possibility of delaying the so-called bull market process, for example, extending the expectation of "the bull market ends in the first half" to "the bull market ends in the second half."

Especially since Trump mentioned "other valuable cryptocurrencies" in his post, this seems to give people new imaginative space. If everyone has been scrolling social platforms (like X platform) these days, they will definitely continue to see some KOLs recommending various altcoins that might be included in the U.S. national reserve list. My personal suggestion here is that if your risk tolerance is not that high and you have a long-term investment plan, then it’s actually fine to just hold onto your Bitcoin.

Now, although many people are starting to look bullish again, as we mentioned above, we still need to pay attention to both narrative and economy, and not let Trump’s temporary pump cloud our judgment. Especially this week, which is bound to be a volatile week, because besides the White House's first cryptocurrency summit, there are also unemployment and non-farm payroll data to be released (March 7th at 21:30 Beijing time), and developments in the tariff war also need to be monitored.

In the article a few days ago (February 28th), we mentioned Black Friday. I wonder if we will break the Black Friday curse this week?

At the end of that article, we also mentioned: last year, the crypto market formed a positive variable because of Trump, and now it has generated a negative variable because of Trump. Isn’t it interesting? In fact, the development of the market itself is a continuous unpredictability.

And now, the market has once again generated positive energy because of Trump; the market is just that interesting!

But no matter how the market changes, we will definitely continue to maintain a long-term optimism, while also always keeping a sense of awe towards the market. It’s still that saying: the market is unpredictable, we cannot control the market, the only thing we can control is our own positions.

Additionally, when I write articles now, I try to indicate the time, because some are in Beijing time and some are in Eastern Time. With more time references, it can sometimes lead to information confusion. Currently, the time difference between Beijing time and Eastern Time is 13 hours, but soon we will switch to daylight saving time (daylight saving time runs from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November), and then the time difference calculation will be more convenient, and I won’t have to keep marking the time.