Key Indicators: (April 14, 4 PM -> April 21, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)

BTC increased by 3.6% against USD (from $84,450 to $87,500), while ETH decreased by 1.9% (from $1,620 to $1,590).

• Since the market tested the $75,000 pivot point after the election, a week has passed. This week, the coin price has remained entirely above $80,000 to $81,500, further confirming that this double bottom price is a strong support level. Our fundamental view is that the coin price will remain elevated in the range of $81,000 to $90,000 over the next few trading days or even weeks. If the coin price breaks above $91,000 to $92,000, the market will attempt to break through $100,000 and then reach new highs again. Conversely, if the coin price falls below $73,000 to $74,000, we will see the price realistically drop to $60,000 to $65,000.

• We remain bullish in the medium term and believe that the coin price will reach new highs in the coming quarters, with technical targets in the range of $115,000 to $125,000. However, the specific path and timing remain elusive.

Market Themes

• Overall, after experiencing a large-scale reallocation and deleveraging, various markets have shown more calm this week, while most of the "bad news" related to tariffs has already been released (including the latest announcement to restrict chip exports to China). Powell mentioned a cautious stance on interest rate cuts in his speech, pointing out the risk of higher inflation, but this was not well received by the market or Trump. Subsequently, reports over the weekend indicated that Trump stated he was "trying to remove Powell from office," triggering a new round of dollar selling on Monday after Easter, further damaging the credibility of U.S. assets. The VIX index continues to remain above 30, as the market remains very concerned that Trump and his administration will bring more unexpected news.

• Back to cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has broken its correlation with the S&P index or U.S. stocks for the first time since the end of February, ignoring the weak stock market and rising VIX index. It is more influenced by the weakening dollar and is rising in sync with gold and G10 currencies. Meanwhile, other altcoins have struggled to rise in the weak stock market environment. Therefore, Bitcoin's outperforming performance is more about diversifying away from the single dollar and related assets. If this trend continues, Bitcoin should have room for significant gains to catch up with gold's increase this year. We still maintain that in the current environment, Bitcoin can only truly enter the next phase after breaking its correlation with U.S. stocks.

BTC Implied Volatility

• After the actual volatility dropped sharply, the implied volatility also decreased significantly. As market positions became clearer and the coin price found balance in a very narrow range of $83,000 to $85,000, the actual volatility was locked in at over 30 for most of last week. The implied volatility fell sharply before the Easter holiday due to market selling, and then naturally adjusted back as the weekend ended and the coin price showed upward momentum.

• Although other markets remain more volatile than before, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from other assets, especially the S&P index. If this situation continues, it will further impact the long end of the term curve and lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's volatility. This is crucial for Bitcoin as a diversification alternative to the dollar and its assets.

BTC Skew/Kurtosis

• The short-term skew has gradually returned to flat from extreme downward bias, consistent with the coin price rising on Monday and the increase in actual volatility. Overall, the market feels more comfortable around the current levels, as despite a 5% increase in implied volatility on the expiration date within a day, the longer end has not been significantly affected, suggesting that the market has long positions in the current price area. We also see some long-term players starting to re-establish covered call positions as the coin price rises.

• As implied volatility pricing decreases and the coin price stabilizes in the technical range of $82,000 to $90,000, sellers on both wings have compressed the kurtosis significantly. However, if this range breaks, we expect to see a substantial increase in actual volatility (as well as implied volatility), so considering the technical indicators of the spot market and the very high fluctuations in actual volatility, along with the correlation between skew and spot, we still recommend holding wing positions.

Wishing everyone good luck this week!