Matrixport Research: Fiscal Uncertainty May Further Boost BTC Rise in Q3

Due to the impact of the new round of global tariff measures from the White House, the cryptocurrency market has also shown bearish signals today. Trump's actions have somewhat diminished the positive effects of "U.S. Cryptocurrency Week," the continued accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate accounts, and MicroStrategy's latest financing, exacerbating market uncertainty. Macroeconomic information and capital flows will be key focus areas in the near term.

June Core PCE Released, PCE Price Index Year-on-Year Below Expectations

According to Jin10 data, the U.S. June core PCE price index year-on-year is 2.8%, expected 2.70%, with the previous value revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The U.S. June core PCE price index month-on-month is 0.3%, expected 0.30%, with the previous value at 0.20%. The market's comparative performance is concerning; "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated on social media that core PCE inflation in June appears to be worsening and is not better than when the Fed began cutting rates last year, and in some indicators, it is even worse. The three-month annualized rate of the core PCE price index in June is 2.6% (compared to 2.3% in the same period last year). The six-month annualized figure is 3.2% (compared to 3.3% in the same period last year).

Reciprocal Tariffs Disturb the Market, Macro Uncertainty Intensifies

The new round of tariffs from the U.S. has triggered market panic, with President Trump signing an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the U.S. from 67 trading partners. White House officials stated Thursday evening that they hope to reach more agreements with various countries before the new tariff implementation date of August 7, providing countries with another window to attempt to negotiate lower tariffs. A senior government official said, "This is historic; this is a new trading system, and this is what I call the Trump round of negotiations."

Fiscal Issues as the Focus in September, Fiscal Uncertainty May Further Boost BTC

Each significant fluctuation in BTC has a clear catalytic effect, with price performance often closely related to actual capital flows. As Washington enters its summer recess (the House has adjourned since July 25, and the Senate is expected to follow suit around July 31), market attention will shift back to fiscal issues when Congress reconvenes after Labor Day on September 2. Historically, fiscal uncertainty has always been an important driver for the rise of hard assets, and BTC is at the forefront of this macro trend.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.