The shadow of tariffs has temporarily lifted, is the bull market's horn sounding again?

Original Title: https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5207099
Original Author: Azuma, Odaily 星球日报

As the tariff negotiations between China and the United States make new progress, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is rapidly warming.

From last night to this morning, the market has once again experienced a significant rise. According to OKX market data (as of 9:30), BTC broke through 115,000 USDT, reaching a high of 115,590 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.02%; ETH approached 4,200 USDT, hitting a high of 4,194.84 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.88%; SOL reclaimed the 200 USDT mark, peaking at 205.09 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 5.58%.

In addition to BTC, ETH, and SOL, the altcoin market has finally seen a decent recovery, with some tokens showing impressive gains. For example, the consistently strong ZEC reached 368 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 30.03%; influenced by the renewed enthusiasm for AI concepts, VIRTUAL hit 1.5761 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 22.25%; popular protocols like PUMP, PENDLE, and ENA also performed well, with 24-hour increases of 17.64%, 10.06%, and 9.22% respectively…

Due to the overall market uptrend, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has rapidly rebounded. CoinGecko data shows that the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has returned to 3.984 trillion USDT, with a 24-hour growth of 3.5%, just one step away from reclaiming the 4 trillion USDT mark. The panic sentiment among cryptocurrency users has also significantly dissipated, with today's fear and greed index reaching 51, shifting from "fear" to "neutral."

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced liquidations of 421 million USDT, with the vast majority being short liquidations, amounting to 345 million USDT. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC saw liquidations of 169.7 million USDT, while ETH saw liquidations of 110.7 million USDT.

Tariff Clouds Temporarily Lifted

From a news perspective, the most direct reason for the rapid market recovery is undoubtedly the new achievements in the tariff negotiations between China and the United States.

From October 25 to 26, the Chinese side's lead negotiator, Vice Premier He Lifeng, met with the U.S. side's lead negotiators, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and Trade Representative Tai, in Kuala Lumpur for U.S.-China economic and trade consultations.

Li Chenggang, China's international trade negotiation representative and vice minister of commerce, stated after the consultations that both sides had reached a preliminary consensus on several important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, and the next step would be to fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures.

After the talks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen told U.S. media that after the two-day discussions in Kuala Lumpur, both sides reached a "very substantive framework agreement," laying the groundwork for a meeting between the leaders of the two countries. The U.S. side has "no longer considered" imposing a 100% tariff on China. U.S. Trade Representative Tai also stated at a press conference that the U.S.-China trade negotiations were productive, covering various topics, and both sides were discussing the final details of a trade agreement proposal, which could almost be submitted for review by the leaders of both countries.

Since Trump suddenly reignited the tariff issue earlier this month, clouds have loomed over the cryptocurrency market and even the global financial market. On October 11, the market experienced a historic crash, and as the related tensions gradually eased, the market naturally began to warm up again—this seems to be another classic example of Trump's "raise high and put down lightly" strategy, but in the fluctuations, wealth has undergone a significant transfer.

This Week's Focus: Interest Rate Decision

The focus of the market for the upcoming week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Thursday morning—on October 30 (Thursday) at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; subsequently, at 2:30 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the overall and core inflation indicators for September, both of which were below expectations, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to further advance interest rate cuts—U.S. September unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 3%, a slight increase from last month's 2.9%, marking the highest level since January 2025, but the increase was slightly lower than the market's general expectation of 3.1%; September adjusted CPI month-on-month recorded 0.3%, an increase lower than market expectations and the previous value of 0.4%. The U.S. September unadjusted core CPI year-on-year recorded 3%, lower than market expectations and the previous value of 3.1%; September adjusted core CPI month-on-month recorded 0.2%, also lower than market expectations and the previous value of 0.3%.

After the CPI data was released, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice more this year. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is currently reported at 97.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 2.7%; the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by December is 95.5%.

"Insider" Whale Movements: Continuing to Be Bullish

Putting aside all uncertain traditional influencing factors and abstracting the market trend into a very simple question, the most influential individual recently is undoubtedly the whale that has maintained a 100% win rate since the drop on October 11.

HyperBot data shows that the "whale with a 100% win rate since 10.11" currently holds 13x BTC long positions and 5x ETH long positions, with unrealized profits of approximately 17.54 million USDT, and has not yet taken profits. Three hours ago, this whale even added 1,868 ETH long positions. Currently, the total value of this whale's holdings is approximately 339 million USDT, with BTC long positions valued at about 171 million USDT, at an opening price of 110,680 USDT; ETH long positions valued at about 168 million USDT, at an opening price of 3,929 USDT.

Clearly, this whale continues to be bullish. Whether it's insider information or technical analysis, closely following this whale's rhythm may be the optimal solution to navigate the current market.