Bitget UEX Daily Report | Negotiations remain unresolved as oil prices rebound; Cook steps down as CEO in September; Waller promises strict independence of monetary policy (April 21, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Kevin Warsh's Nomination Hearing Transcript Exposed

• The opening remarks of Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor nominated by Trump, were disclosed ahead of today's hearing, clearly committing to maintaining strict independence in monetary policy and warning that the Federal Reserve should not excessively expand its functional boundaries;
• Warsh emphasized that "inflation is a choice," stating that price stability is a core responsibility, and independence mainly relies on self-discipline rather than external intervention;
• Market Impact: If the hearing goes smoothly, his stance may strengthen expectations for a rate cut path, but political doubts may push up long-term rates, benefiting risk assets in the short term while increasing volatility in the dollar and bonds.

International Commodities

Stalemate in US-Iran Negotiations and Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices Strongly Rebound

• Trump denied the possibility of extending the ceasefire agreement, Iranian representatives plan to negotiate in Pakistan but have not confirmed attendance, the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with at least 26 ships breaking through and several turning back, Kuwait announced force majeure on oil exports;
• WTI crude oil rose nearly 9% at one point, Brent crude oil rose nearly 8%, and ultimately closed up nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day increase in over two weeks;
• Market Interpretation: Geopolitical risk premiums once again dominate pricing; if negotiations make progress, the pressure for oil price correction will increase, providing short-term support for the energy sector but adding uncertainty to global inflation.

Macroeconomic Policy

IDC Predicts Global Smartphone Shipments Will Plummet 13% by 2026

• IDC data shows that global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 13% year-on-year to about 1.1 billion units in 2026, with a 4.1% decline in Q1, and low-end models being the most affected;
• Samsung and Apple are relatively resilient due to their high-end product lines, but overall industry demand is becoming conservative;
• Analysts point out that weak consumer electronics demand may drag down the tech supply chain, combined with Li Qiang emphasizing the construction of new energy bases, which is favorable for green technology transformation in the long term but suppresses semiconductor and consumer electronics valuations in the short term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up 0.1%, reported at $4,825;
• Spot Silver: After a nearly 4% drop during the session, it recovered most of the losses, reported at $79.8;
• WTI Crude Oil: Down 1.12%, reported at $86.43;
• Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.61%, reported at $94.9;
• Dollar Index: Reported at 98.08, failed to rebound, turned down during the session and could not escape a one-and-a-half-month low, with risk aversion and rate cut expectations jointly suppressing it.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H increase of 2.19%, reported at $75,958, strongly rebounded after maintaining key support for several days, showing resilience under geopolitical risks;
• ETH: 24H increase of 1.63%, reported at $2,320, strengthened alongside Bitcoin, with ETF fund dynamics providing additional support;
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Increased by about 1.5% in 24H, total market cap approximately $2.63 trillion, with BTC's dominance maintained at 57.6%;
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $281 million in 24H, with short positions liquidated at about $196 million;
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Dense liquidation of short positions in the range of 76k--78k, with prices nearing the trigger zone, once broken, it may easily trigger a continuous short squeeze. Long positions below have basically been cleared with no significant replenishment, and short-term declines lack liquidation drivers, with the structure still leaning bullish.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $17.6 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $21.5 million yesterday;
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an inflow of about $2.45 billion and an outflow of about $2.295 billion, with a net inflow of $155 million.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 49,442.56 points, down 0.01%, with a slight pullback from high levels;
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,109.14 points, down 0.24%, with a pause in the continuous upward momentum but still near historical highs;
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,404.39 points, down 0.26%, ending a 13-day winning streak, with profit-taking pressure evident in the tech and AI sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Slightly down 0.4% to $225.8 due to CEO transition news, with the market focusing on the smoothness of the transition;
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.3% to $412.5, with stable cloud business but adjusting with the market;
• Google (GOOGL): Down 0.8% to $158.2, with limited uplift from AI chip collaboration news;
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 0.5% to $185.6, highlighting resilience in e-commerce and AWS;
• Meta (META): Down 1.1% to $520.4, with strong advertising business but high valuation pressure;
• Nvidia (NVDA): Down 0.6% to $138.2, with sustained AI demand but overall sector profit-taking;
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 1.2% to $248.7, with attention on autonomous driving progress. Core Reason Summary: Geopolitical uncertainty triggers profit-taking at high levels, with the AI theme remaining a major driving force, and changes in Apple's leadership becoming a market focus.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy and Fertilizer Sector rose over 3%

• Representative Stock: Dow Chemical (DOW) rose over 3%;
• Driving Factors: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push up oil prices, directly benefiting the energy and chemical sectors.

Airlines and Cruise Sector fell over 3%

• Representative Stocks: Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) fell nearly 3.5%, American Airlines (AAL) fell over 4%;
• Driving Factors: Geopolitical blockades affect shipping expectations, compounded by profit-taking pressure.

Semiconductor Sector shows divergence

• Representative Stocks: Marvell Technology rose nearly 6% (rumors of AI chip collaboration with Google); Broadcom (AVGO) fell nearly 2%;
• Driving Factors: AI collaboration news boosts some stocks, but the overall sector adjusts with the Nasdaq.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Apple (AAPL) - CEO Transition Plan

Event Overview: Apple officially announced on April 20 that Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, 2026, transitioning to Executive Chairman, with Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering John Ternus taking over as CEO and joining the board. This is the largest leadership change since 2011, stemming from the company's long-term succession planning. Ternus has led hardware engineering since 2013 and has been deeply involved in the development of M-series chips, Mac product lines, and AI hardware. The market is closely watching the AI device strategy (such as the rollout of Apple Intelligence) and ecosystem continuity during the transition period. Market Interpretation: Wall Street institutions generally view this as a smooth and orderly handover. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley emphasize that Ternus's hardware background will accelerate the integration of AI hardware and ecosystems, maintaining a "buy" rating and slightly raising the target price, believing this move can alleviate investor concerns about innovation slowing after Cook's era, but short-term observation of supply chain and new product rhythm is needed. Investment Insight: A smooth transition at the top is expected to stabilize market confidence and strengthen AI hardware catalysts. Investors are advised to focus on earnings reports and new product launches around September to capture potential valuation re-evaluation opportunities while paying attention to hardware supply chain interlinkages.

2. Amazon (AMZN) - Additional Investment in Anthropic AI

Event Overview: Amazon announced an additional $5 billion investment in Anthropic, further deepening its generative AI infrastructure layout. This move not only strengthens its leading position in cloud computing but also directly drives AWS business growth expectations. As the developer of the Claude model, Anthropic's collaboration with Amazon has expanded from initial investment to large-scale computing power and cloud service integration. Coupled with the acceleration of corporate digitalization under geopolitical risks, it highlights Amazon's strong positioning in the AI capital expenditure race. Market Interpretation: Wall Street analysts highly recognize the long-term driving role of the AI theme. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both maintain a "buy" rating and raise the target price, believing that AWS's resilient demand will offset short-term macro pressures, and accelerated capital expenditures are expected to translate into sustainable profit growth, with room for valuation expansion remaining. Investment Insight: Accelerated AI capital expenditures will provide Amazon with a strong growth engine. It is suitable to closely track AWS performance during earnings season, as allocating this stock can effectively capture medium- to long-term opportunities driven by cloud computing and AI infrastructure.

3. ExxonMobil (XOM) - Direct Beneficiary of Oil Price Rebound

Event Overview: The ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed international oil prices up nearly 6%. As one of the world's largest energy giants, ExxonMobil's oil production, refining, and upstream businesses directly benefit from geopolitical premiums. Kuwait's force majeure declaration further exacerbates supply chain tensions, and the company's recent performance guidance has already implied energy price elasticity. Market Interpretation: Institutions like UBS have upgraded the overall rating of the energy sector, emphasizing the direct support of geopolitical risk premiums on profits. XOM's valuation has significant defensive attributes, and in a high oil price environment, cash flow and dividend attractiveness are further enhanced, but caution is needed regarding the risk of corrections from negotiation progress. Investment Insight: Short-term oil price fluctuations provide significant trading elasticity for energy giants. Medium- to long-term investors need to continuously track global energy transition policies and OPEC+ dynamics. XOM is suitable as a defensive allocation to buffer against geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.

4. Google (GOOGL) - New TPU AI Chip Collaboration

Event Overview: Google and Marvell Technology's rumored AI chip collaboration has materialized, with the next-generation TPU chip accelerating deployment, which is expected to further consolidate its leading position in AI computing power. This move continues Google's Cloud and AI infrastructure strategy, directly addressing the GPU market landscape dominated by Nvidia. Amid the decline in global smartphone shipments, enterprise-level AI demand has become a new growth point. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe that strong demand for AI infrastructure will boost cloud business and advertising revenue. Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic rating, pointing out that TPU collaboration can reduce reliance on external chips and optimize cost structures, highlighting the resilience of tech giants' supply chains in a geopolitical risk environment. Investment Insight: The AI theme continues to catalyze, and it is recommended to pay attention to sector rotation opportunities brought by chip supply chain interlinkages. GOOGL, as a core player in AI computing power, is suitable for capturing the growth dividends from the synergy between cloud services and hardware in medium- to long-term layouts.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. The spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT under Morgan Stanley bought 215 BTC four hours ago, worth $16.43 million. It currently holds 1,820.6 BTC, valued at $138.1 million.

2. Bloomberg reports that the market industry is increasing lobbying efforts in Washington to respond to growing regulatory pressures. Companies like Kalshi are hiring lobbying teams to address potential congressional crackdowns on the industry. In Q1 2026, industry lobbying expenditures reached at least $1.84 million, a historical high, up over 60% year-on-year.

3. Russell Thompson, Chief Investment Officer of cryptocurrency asset management firm Hilbert Group, stated that global liquidity is expected to tighten by 20% to 25%, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. Even if the Iran issue is resolved quickly, risk assets are unlikely to sustain rebounds without external policy support.

4. The Block reports that multiple DeFi security incidents in the past three weeks have led to industry losses exceeding $600 million, with the Kelp DAO vulnerability incident (loss of $292 million) further exacerbating the downturn, bringing DeFi TVL down to about $82.4 billion, the lowest level in a year.

5. According to Bitcoin Magazine, Michael Saylor's Strategy Bitcoin holdings have officially surpassed BlackRock's related Bitcoin holdings. Data shows that Strategy currently holds 815,061 BTC, while BlackRock holds 802,823 BTC.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|--------|------| | 20:30 | USA | March Retail Sales | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 22:00 | USA | March Existing Home Sales | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 22:00 | USA | March Business Inventories | ⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

Tuesday (April 21)

1. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman ★★★★★
2. U.S. March retail sales data will be released: Observing the impact of consumer resilience on the economy and the Fed's assessment.
3. Several companies will release Q1 earnings before the market opens (such as MMM.US, RTX.US, UNH.US, etc.), focusing on how earnings performance boosts sector sentiment.

Wednesday (April 22)

1. Google Cloud Next conference opens (April 22-24)★★★★
2. Tesla TSLA will release Q1 earnings after the market closes ★★★★★ (the first among the tech giants to release, with the market highly focused on delivery volumes, profit margins, AI 5 chips/Optimus robots, and SpaceX-related guidance, with extremely high volatility.)
3. Other major earnings reports: Boeing (BA), GE Vernova before the market opens; IBM after the market closes.

Thursday (April 23)

1. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 will be released: Observing how labor market data guides Fed policy expectations.
2. Intel INTC will release Q1 earnings after the market closes★★★★ (focusing on chip demand and AI-related dynamics, which may have a significant impact on the semiconductor sector.)

Overall Operational Advice: The Kevin Warsh hearing and Tesla earnings report will be core events driving market sentiment. If the earnings report and AI guidance exceed expectations, it could boost risk appetite, but Fed hawkishness or US-Iran tensions may limit gains. Focus on structural opportunities in financial, technology, industrial, energy, and semiconductor sectors while maintaining flexible positions.*

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs' trading chief warned that U.S. stock leverage is at a five-year high, CTA buying momentum has exhausted, and geopolitical risks have reignited, indicating short-term correction risks are present; Hedge fund CIO Eric Peters believes the current "generational top market" still has room, with the S&P 500 potentially rising another 35%-40%, driven by AI infrastructure, foreign capital inflows, and energy exports, advising early positioning in gold and U.S. Treasuries to hedge against subsequent interest rate zero risks. Institutions like JPMorgan point out that the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations has pushed up oil prices and energy stocks, but has not changed the core trend of upward revisions in U.S. stock profits, maintaining an optimistic range for the S&P 500's 2026 target. Overall, short-term volatility is increasing, but the medium- to long-term "AI + rate cuts" logic remains dominant, suggesting investors focus on defensive sectors and quality growth stock rotation opportunities while controlling positions.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication only, and does not constitute any investment advice.