Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Non-farm payroll report is coming, if the hawkish stance strengthens, it may boost the dollar and suppress gold and the stock market; Bitcoin remains at $63,000 (June 5, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve officials intensively release hawkish signals, prioritizing inflation risks

• Several regional Fed presidents emphasize that the current policy choice is between maintaining patience or considering interest rate hikes to address inflation pressures, with inflation remaining the primary economic risk, while AI has not yet shown significant productivity gains in the short term.
• Next year's FOMC voting members point out that the labor market is relatively balanced, with no obvious signs of labor shortages observed. Market Impact: Hawkish statements increase uncertainty regarding the interest rate path, potentially supporting a stronger dollar while suppressing risk assets, especially the stock market and gold, as the market remains cautious ahead of non-farm data.

International Commodities

Easing expectations in the Middle East alleviate energy tensions, leading to a pullback in oil prices

• Trump stated that he does not rule out meeting with Iran if an agreement is reached, and previous U.S. strikes have destroyed relevant nuclear facilities, with potential supply recovery driving oil prices down.
• Precious metals are simultaneously pressured by a stronger dollar and a warming risk appetite. Market Impact: Short-term easing of geopolitical risks is bearish for energy prices, but long-term uncertainty still supports inflation hedging demand, with precious metal trends increasingly dependent on upcoming employment data.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. May non-farm payroll report to be released tonight at 20:30, with moderate growth expected

• An increase of about 85,000 jobs is anticipated, with the unemployment rate remaining stable; if the data meets expectations, it will continue the strong employment momentum.
• Other dynamics include Treasury Secretary Yellen defending inflation and tariffs, and a judge warning that tariff refund appeals may affect the process. Market Impact: Non-farm data will be an important basis for the Fed's next policy move; strong results may reinforce tightening expectations and be bearish for risk assets, while weak data could boost market sentiment.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Down 0.35%, around $4,459 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: Down 1.23%, around $72.93 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down 3.29%, around $92.86 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.24%, around $95.07 per barrel.
• Dollar Index: Down 0.23%, around 99.43.

Gold and the dollar both retreat, as the market begins to trade the combination logic of "geopolitical easing + interest rate cut expectations."
Spot gold fell 0.35% to around $4,459, while the dollar index dropped 0.23% to 99.43. Recently, market expectations for a U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have warmed, leading some safe-haven funds to withdraw from gold; at the same time, the weakening dollar provides some support for gold prices, resulting in an overall high-level oscillation pattern for gold. Analysts generally believe that the core driver of gold has gradually shifted from geopolitical risks to this week's non-farm employment data and Fed policy expectations. If employment data weakens, gold may still gain new upward momentum.

Oil prices have significantly pulled back, essentially reflecting that the geopolitical risk premium has been partially squeezed out, rather than a fundamental reversal in supply and demand logic.
WTI crude oil fell 3.29% to $92.86 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped to $95.07 per barrel. Reuters and several institutions have analyzed that the market is reassessing the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East, with a large amount of war risk premium previously factored into oil prices being released. Some analysts believe that this round of decline resembles a technical correction and a retreat of risk premiums rather than a collapse in demand, as global crude oil inventories remain tight, OPEC maintains its demand growth expectations for 2026, and risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been completely resolved.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: -0.21%, price around $63,200.
• ETH: -2%, price around $1,765.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: 0.3%, total market cap around $2.27 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours about $1.253 billion, with long positions liquidated about $970 million.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $397 million on June 3, continuing net outflows.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an outflow of $235 million, with net outflows reflecting cautious adjustments in institutional positions.

BTC slightly retreated to around $63,200, while ETH's decline expanded to 2%, with the overall market still in a risk appetite contraction phase. Recently, large-scale fund outflows have occurred in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, with cumulative outflows exceeding $1 billion since June, and institutional fund withdrawals have become an important factor suppressing BTC performance. Multiple market research institutions have pointed out that the core of this adjustment is not due to a deterioration in on-chain fundamentals, but rather a shift in the macro environment, an increase in preference for defensive assets, and a rebalancing of institutional positions.

QCP Capital, IG, and other institutions believe that the current market is experiencing a "Flow Shock" phase. Geopolitical risks pushing up oil prices, rising inflation expectations, and the Fed's delayed interest rate cut expectations have weakened the attractiveness of risk assets; at the same time, AI concept stocks and large IPOs continue to attract capital inflows, leading some institutions to adjust their positions away from the crypto market. Analysts generally believe that if ETF funds continue to see net outflows, Bitcoin still faces the risk of testing the $60,000 support level, but long-term institutional allocation demand has not completely reversed.

In terms of market sentiment, 24-hour liquidations reached $1.253 billion, with long position liquidations accounting for over 77%, indicating that previous leveraged long positions are still being concentratedly cleared. Multiple analysis institutions have pointed out that the current decline reflects more of a high-leverage position liquidation rather than panic selling by long-term holders. If the pace of ETF outflows slows down, and if non-farm employment data is weaker than expected, reinforcing interest rate cut expectations, the crypto market may welcome a phase of technical rebound.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 1.73%, at 51,561.93 points, benefiting from the continuous positive sentiment driven by easing expectations in the Middle East.
• S&P 500: Up 0.41%, at 7,584.32 points, with defensive sectors providing support.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.09%, at 26,830.96 points, with sector-driven factors causing chip stocks to drag down overall performance.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.31%, closing at $311.23, benefiting from the overall market sentiment recovery.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Up 0.17%, closing at $429.52, with steady progress in AI layout.
• Google (GOOGL): Up 3.68%, closing at $368.59, performing outstandingly.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 1.51%, closing at $253.79.
• Meta (META): Up 0.74%, closing at $627.57.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Up 1.94%, closing at $218.66, with sustained AI demand.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 1.24%, closing at $418.45, affected by sector differentiation.

Large tech stocks continue to rebound overall, as the market refocuses on the AI capital expenditure cycle rather than short-term macro disturbances.
Google (GOOGL) surged 3.68%, becoming the strongest performer among the seven giants. Analysts believe that Google has been continuously increasing its investment in AI infrastructure, while improvements in cloud business growth have led the market to reprice its position in the generative AI competition. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) also rose in tandem, reflecting investor optimism about the long-term growth trend of enterprise-level AI services and cloud computing demand. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 1.94%, primarily benefiting from sustained demand for AI servers and computing power, with multiple institutions expecting its data center business orders to remain visible for several quarters ahead.

The market is currently distinguishing between "AI beneficiaries" and "AI investors," with valuation digestion capacity becoming key to stock performance.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and other institutions have recently pointed out that the AI capital expenditure cycle is still in an expansion phase, but the market's requirements for tech giants have shifted from "increasing investment" to "delivering returns." Companies like Google and Nvidia, which can directly reflect the commercialization results of AI, are more likely to attract funding, while Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META), although maintaining upward trends, have relatively limited gains, indicating that investors are still waiting for AI products to monetize and contribute to profits.

Tesla (TSLA) fell 1.24% against the trend, reflecting a market focus returning to fundamentals rather than the AI narrative.
Analysts believe that Tesla currently faces issues such as slowing demand for electric vehicles, pressure on profit margins, and uncertainty regarding the commercialization timeline of Robotaxi. Although Musk continues to emphasize autonomous driving and AI strategies, some institutions believe that related expectations have been sufficiently reflected in the stock price, with short-term funds more inclined to flow into AI infrastructure and cloud computing targets with stronger performance certainty.

Sector Movement Observation

The semiconductor sector shows significant differentiation (some stocks have sharply pulled back, with the SOXX index down about 2.1%)

• Representative stocks: Broadcom (AVGO) fell about 12.6%, closing at $418.91; Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose about 3.8%-4.9%, performing relatively strongly.
• Driving factors: Despite Broadcom's Q2 revenue reaching $22.19 billion, strong growth in AI semiconductor revenue, and Q3 guidance exceeding expectations, management maintained its 2026 AI semiconductor sales forecast without further upward adjustments, leading to investor disappointment and profit-taking, dragging down the entire chip sector. Market divergence mainly focuses on growth slope rather than fundamental deterioration—analysts emphasize that the long-term demand logic for data centers and custom AI chips remains solid, with expectations that AI revenue will exceed $100 billion by 2027. Deutsche Bank and other institutions view the pullback as a "wrongful kill" opportunity. Meanwhile, some AI-related stocks, like Google, have risen against the trend due to commitments to infrastructure expansion, highlighting the characteristic of funds rotating from overvalued targets to specific catalyst stocks within the sector. Overall, this differentiation reflects investors' cautious assessment of the pace of AI capital expenditure realization and a repricing of supply chain and competitive landscape.

1. Broadcom (AVGO) - Conservative AI Guidance Triggers Market Sell-off

Event Overview: Broadcom's stock price plummeted about 12% after announcing quarterly results, despite strong revenue and significant growth in AI revenue, as management did not raise the annual AI semiconductor sales guidance, leading to investor disappointment. Wall Street analysts believe this is due to management's consistently conservative stance, rather than issues like market share loss or demand delays. Deutsche Bank and other institutions predict that Broadcom's AI revenue could reach $125 billion in fiscal year 2027 (about 25% above current guidance), further jumping to about $190 billion by 2028, while also raising long-term revenue and EPS forecasts by about 15%. This adjustment reflects the market's confidence in the long-term explosive potential of AI infrastructure. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view this pullback as a "wrongful kill," emphasizing that the long-term demand for data centers and custom AI chips remains strong, and Broadcom's position as a key supplier is solid, with short-term emotional sell-offs not changing the fundamental trajectory. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility provides a potential entry window for long-term investors optimistic about AI infrastructure, but close monitoring of the actual pace of AI capital expenditure realization and industry competitive landscape is necessary to avoid short-term uncertainty risks under high valuations.

2. Anthropic - Secretly Submits IPO Application, Highlighting AI Capital Intensity

Event Overview: Anthropic co-founder pointed out that high computing costs are the main driving force behind the IPO, and the company has secretly submitted IPO documents while calling on top global AI laboratories to pause cutting-edge R&D to avoid resource waste. Its Claude model capabilities are rapidly improving, seeking broader financing support through public markets. This dynamic highlights the funding needs of pure AI players in scaling expansion. Market Interpretation: Investment banks are optimistic about the overall financing heat in the AI sector, with Anthropic's valuation potential being enormous, forming the core of the 2026 IPO boom alongside OpenAI and SpaceX, reflecting the industry's transition from early innovation to commercial maturity. Investment Insight: The IPO boom marks an acceleration in the commercialization process of AI, and investors can pay attention to subsequent roadshow details and valuation pricing, but must be wary of execution risks and market volatility under high growth expectations.

3. SpaceX - Goldman Sachs Predicts Huge AI-Related Capital Expenditure

Event Overview: SpaceX has launched its IPO roadshow, with Goldman Sachs predicting that its capital expenditure will reach $360 billion by 2028, with about 80% allocated to AI-related fields, and revenue expected to grow significantly to $474 billion by 2030 (with AI business accounting for two-thirds). This forecast is far higher than the company's revenue level of $18.7 billion last year and reflects deepening cooperation with AI giants. Market Interpretation: The unique combination of AI and aerospace technology has gained market recognition, with a strong long-term growth story, and investment banks emphasize its competitive advantages in the intersection of Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure. Investment Insight: As a potential super IPO candidate, SpaceX is worth long-term tracking, but investors need to cautiously assess execution certainty under high valuations and the impact of the macro environment, suitable for higher risk appetite allocations.

4. Ciena (CIEN) - Strong Performance Yet Profit-Taking Occurs

Event Overview: Ciena's Q2 revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, and EPS rose by 290%, both exceeding expectations, and the company raised its annual guidance, yet its stock price still fell over 13%. The market believes that despite strong performance, the surprise magnitude was limited, and the profit margin guidance for Q3 remained basically flat, failing to further boost valuations that had already priced in AI and data center demand. Market Interpretation: Investor profit-taking sentiment dominates, reflecting a reassessment of subsequent growth slopes and profit margins, but the overall demand logic for AI optical networks remains solid. Investment Insight: The performance validates industry trends, but valuation pressure is significant, suitable for monitoring subsequent quarterly growth realization, with long-term benefits still expected from the expansion of data center interconnect demand.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox stated on platform X that security researcher Taylor Hornby discovered a serious forgery vulnerability in the Zcash Orchard pool on May 29, 2026, allowing attackers to mint unlimited counterfeit ZEC without detection. Hornby disclosed the vulnerability to the Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL), which coordinated an emergency response across the ecosystem, with the vulnerability fix completed on June 2.

2. CME Group CEO Terry Duffy expressed "great concern" over the recent approval of perpetual contracts by U.S. regulators. Duffy stated that perpetual contracts have almost no practical use for institutional investors but expose retail traders to excessive risk. He expressed "complete disagreement" with the CFTC's decision to approve the first batch of crypto perpetual contracts after a rapid review and stated he had called the CFTC chairman to express his concerns.

3. On June 4, Eastern Time, the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (code: HYPG) officially listed on Nasdaq. Currently, there are a total of three U.S. HYPE spot ETFs trading. According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (June 4, Eastern Time), the total net inflow of the HYPE spot ETF reached $12.1494 million.

4. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee is preparing legislation to build a cryptocurrency tax structure, which could be released as early as Friday, followed by hearings early next week. Committee Chairman Jason Smith will prioritize establishing a digital asset tax framework, with the Treasury Department also involved in the process.

5. According to The Block, Chainalysis' latest report shows that as the gray market for peptide compounds used for weight loss and anti-aging explodes, leading sellers are turning to Bitcoin and stablecoins for transactions. In Q1 2026, the value of cryptocurrencies flowing into this field increased by 159% month-on-month, reaching $32 million. Chainalysis noted that the annualized scale of the peptide market has exceeded $100 million, as traditional banks and credit card institutions prohibit transactions of prescription-level compounds, making cryptocurrencies a pillar for payments.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|--------------|-------| | 20:30 | U.S. | May Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment Rate | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

June 5 (Friday)

1. U.S. May Non-Farm Payroll Report (NFP): The market expects an increase of about 115,000 to 130,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of about 4.2%, and average hourly wage growth as a key inflation indicator.★★★★★

Important Event Forecast

• Event: U.S. May Non-Farm Data Release - Focus on the impact of employment growth and wage data on Fed policy.
• Event: Tencent AI Industry Application Conference - Expected to release new smart products.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that today's non-farm data will serve as a market barometer. If employment data is strong and wages accelerate, it may reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, driving the dollar stronger and suppressing gold and the stock market; conversely, it would benefit risk assets. Currently, oil prices are pulling back due to easing geopolitical expectations, but long-term uncertainties remain; the crypto market is dragged down by continuous ETF outflows, with leveraged liquidations exacerbating volatility, suggesting attention to BTC support around $65k. The AI IPO wave (such as SpaceX, Anthropic) provides support for long-term themes, but short-term macro data dominates sentiment. Overall, the market is in a cautious balance driven by data, with volatility expected to remain high.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.