Bitget UEX Daily Report｜US-Iran conflict escalates, pushing up oil prices; earnings reports from tech giants are coming; Bitcoin continues to rebound to $65,000 (July 20, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated concerns about current inflation pressures in her latest speech. She pointed out that feedback from businesses and consumers indicates that price increase pressures remain significant, necessitating a more restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation. Mester stated that while recent inflation data has shown some decline, core service prices and housing-related costs remain sticky and are far from the 2% long-term target, making it difficult for the Fed to quickly pivot to easing in its policy path.

This statement adds significant debate space for the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of July, where there may be votes against maintaining interest rates unchanged. Coupled with previous hawkish remarks from other Fed officials, market expectations for the number and timing of rate cuts by the Fed this year have been further delayed.

Market Impact: The hawkish stance has reinforced uncertainty in the interest rate path, supporting a stronger dollar index in the short term and putting significant pressure on high-valuation growth assets (such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies). At the same time, it provides a long-term allocation logic for safe-haven assets like precious metals. Investors need to pay attention to subsequent economic data (such as PCE inflation and non-farm employment) as guidance for Fed decisions.

International Commodities

In the past 48 hours, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has escalated with multiple rounds of confrontations, resulting in an increase in U.S. military casualties, while Iran has taken a series of actions against regional facilities and key waterways. The conflict directly affects core areas of energy transportation, with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal suspending operations due to attacks, further exacerbating market concerns about global crude oil supply. Brent crude oil surged significantly in early trading, with WTI crude also rising, as geopolitical risk premiums quickly pushed oil prices higher.

Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums dominate the energy market, and short-term supply concerns combined with potential transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may drive oil prices to maintain a high volatility pattern. This trend not only directly benefits the energy sector but will also further exacerbate global inflation expectations through cost transmission, imposing additional constraints on the Fed's policy path. At the same time, rising risk aversion will also benefit precious metals like gold and silver. It is important to be cautious that if the conflict does not quickly de-escalate, the risk of a slowdown in global demand may limit the upside potential for oil prices, and it is advisable to continue tracking the evolution of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ dynamics.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Updates)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,000 / ounce, -0.43%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $56.5 / ounce, +0.87%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $83.5 / barrel, +2.91%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $90.35 / barrel, +2.45%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 100.78, +0.03%

Driving Factors Analysis: The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict combined with supply chain disruption risks has significantly pushed up crude oil prices, with risk premiums dominating energy market trends. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, has received some support under the backdrop of high oil prices and geopolitical tensions, but a moderately strengthening dollar and hawkish signals from the Fed have limited its gains. Overall, the interconnection between assets is evident: rising oil prices may intensify inflation concerns, further impacting Fed decision expectations, while the relative strength of the dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. In the short term, the market will continue to focus on diplomatic developments and dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors jointly shaping the volatility pattern.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $64,643, -0.28%
• ETH: Approximately $1,870, +0.59%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.28T, +0.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: $110 million liquidated in 24h, $65.8 million in short positions.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approximately $64,490, with a large number of short liquidation positions concentrated in the $65,000--$65,500 range above. If this range is broken, it may trigger concentrated short covering, further pushing prices upward. There is liquidation pressure for long positions around $63,500--$64,000, but the overall scale is weaker than the liquidity of short positions above, indicating that the short-term market still leans towards testing the liquidity area above $65,000.

Driving Factors Analysis: The cryptocurrency market has maintained relative resilience amid the tech pullback in U.S. stocks and geopolitical risks. Bitcoin has been oscillating around the $64,000 range, with signs of accumulation from institutions and whales providing support, while Ethereum's slightly stronger performance may benefit from ecological activities. The macro environment (dollar and oil prices) and Fed expectations continue to influence risk appetite, with ETF fund flows and leverage liquidation levels becoming important observation indicators. The overall trend is tilted towards oscillation, with limited short-term differentiation between BTC and ETH, focusing on the potential transmission of geopolitical easing or escalation on liquidity.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,146.42 points (-0.77%), short-term correction
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,457.69 points (-1.01%), dragged down by AI-related sectors
• Nasdaq: Closed at 25,520.24 points (-1.40%), with chip stocks leading the decline

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 202.81 USD, down -4.59 (-2.21%)
• AAPL: 333.74 USD, up +0.48 (+0.14%)
• MSFT: 393.82 USD, down -7.28 (-1.82%)
• GOOGL: 346.77 USD, down -7.69 (-2.17%)
• AMZN: 247.23 USD, down -2.66 (-1.06%)
• META: 646.01 USD, down -18.53 (-2.79%)
• TSLA: 380.84 USD, down -10.22 (-2.61%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Tech giants are under overall pressure, with the pullback of AI concept stocks evolving into broader risk aversion. Chip stocks like Nvidia are leading the decline, with concerns over capital expenditures (warnings from Bank of America) and valuation pressures becoming evident, while Apple remains relatively resilient. News about Meta and SpaceX's computing power rental has not fully offset spending concerns, showing clear differentiation: long-term narratives of AI infrastructure vs. short-term profit-taking pressures. With the earnings season approaching (Google, Tesla, etc.), the market is weighing growth prospects against execution risks.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Storage Sector has significantly corrected

• Representative stocks: Nvidia and others down over 2%, storage concepts have surged and then retreated
• Driving Factors: Concerns over AI capital expenditures combined with broader sell-offs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has entered bear market territory.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Evolution of Agentic AI Computing Power Demand Event Overview: Nvidia's official blog elaborates that with the rise of Agentic AI, post-training has become a core workload that continues to drive computing power demand from one-time purchases to long-term accumulation and iterative optimization. The next-generation Vera Rubin platform has achieved significant breakthroughs in architectural design, improving the processing efficiency of large-scale models to over four times that of the previous generation Blackwell, requiring only a quarter of the GPU count to complete equivalent tasks, significantly reducing overall energy consumption and deployment costs.

Market Interpretation: Institutions generally recognize the long-term structural upgrade of computing power demand as a positive—transitioning from traditional training to Agentic AI cyclical iteration will bring Nvidia a more stable and predictable revenue stream. However, in the short term, the stock price remains under pressure due to hawkish signals from the Fed, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, and overall profit-taking in the tech sector. The market's focus is on whether high valuations can be digested and whether there will be short-term fluctuations in AI capital expenditure rhythms.

Investment Insights: The platform iteration further consolidates Nvidia's competitive barriers in the AI computing power field, with strong long-term growth potential (especially after the implementation of the Agentic AI ecosystem). Investors are advised to closely track the production progress of Vera Rubin, customer capital expenditure guidance, and HBM memory supply conditions. In the short term, be cautious of macro risk appetite declines and fluctuations in capital expenditure cycles, suitable for gradual allocation of quality AI infrastructure leaders during pullbacks.

2. Meta Platforms (META) - Exploration of AI Computing Power Rental Event Overview: Meta is exploring the commercialization of its massive AI capital expenditures by renting out some computing power resources to leading AI companies like Anthropic, transforming its self-built data center capabilities into direct revenue sources. This move aims to enhance the return on investment for AI infrastructure and accelerate the monetization process of generative AI applications.

Market Interpretation: The market remains cautious about the return on investment from Meta's massive AI expenditures, fearing that high-intensity capital expenditures will continue to compress profit margins in the short term. After-hours stock prices fluctuated slightly, reflecting investors' trade-offs between the resilience of advertising business and long-term AI investments. Institutional views are divided: optimists believe that computing power rental can effectively hedge expenditure pressures and open new growth curves, while cautious investors worry that actual rental demand and pricing capabilities still need to be validated.

Investment Insights: The monetization path for AI computing power is an important attempt for Meta to alleviate capital expenditure burdens and enhance overall ROIC, warranting continuous tracking of actual contract implementations and revenue contributions. Combined with the recovery of its advertising business and advantages of products like Reels, the medium to long-term allocation value is prominent. In the short term, it is advisable to pay attention to quarterly capital expenditure guidance and disclosures of AI-related revenues, assessing entry timing during sector adjustments.

3. TSMC (TSM) - Expanding Investment in the U.S. Event Overview: TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in its Arizona factory, bringing the total investment in the U.S. to $265 billion. The CFO clearly stated that this move is primarily driven by the explosive global demand for AI computing power, aiming to enhance advanced process capacity and strengthen global supply chain diversification.

Market Interpretation: Despite significant positive fundamentals (long-term AI-driven demand + geopolitical risk hedging), the stock price is still overshadowed by overall sell-off sentiment in the tech sector, resulting in a market correction. The market is focused on the capacity ramp-up efficiency, yield control, and potential subsidy implementation of the U.S. factory.

Investment Insights: Geopolitical diversification and strong AI demand together provide long-term positive support. As a leader in advanced processes globally, TSMC will continue to benefit from the expansion cycles of clients like Nvidia and AMD. In the short term, follow the sector's volatility, paying attention to U.S.-China tech friction dynamics and quarterly revenue guidance, making it suitable for medium to long-term holding as a core allocation in the AI industry chain.

4. SK Hynix (SK Hynix) - Continued Tight Supply and Demand for HBM Memory Event Overview: As a leading global supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), SK Hynix recently stated that HBM3E and next-generation HBM4 capacities are already at full capacity, with demand from major customers (including Nvidia) far exceeding supply. The company is accelerating capacity expansion in its Korean and overseas factories to meet the explosive demand for high-performance memory driven by AI training and inference.

Market Interpretation: The mismatch in HBM supply and demand continues, becoming a significant bottleneck for AI infrastructure. Institutions believe that SK Hynix's technological advantages and market share increases in the HBM field will directly benefit from the shift in computing power demand from training to post-training for Agentic AI. Although short-term adjustments in the market may drag down performance, the fundamental support remains strong, and valuation attractiveness is gradually emerging.

Investment Insights: HBM memory is an indispensable high-barrier link in the AI computing power chain, with high long-term growth certainty for SK Hynix. It is advisable to closely track capacity expansion progress, HBM price trends, and cooperation dynamics with major GPU manufacturers. In the short term, it can be considered an important complement to the NVDA industry chain, positioning during sector pullbacks while paying attention to the synchronization of memory cycles and AI capital expenditures.

5. SPCX - AI Infrastructure Related Layout (or Specific AI/Computing Power Concepts) Event Overview: As an important player in the AI data center and computing infrastructure field, SPCX has recently made progress in liquid cooling technology, high-density server deployment, and edge computing solutions, actively connecting with hyperscalers' AI cluster construction needs.

Market Interpretation: As Agentic AI and large-scale model deployments accelerate, the demand for upgrading data center infrastructure continues to heat up. However, short-term macro uncertainties (hawkish Fed + geopolitical risks) have led to a decline in overall sector risk appetite, causing SPCX's stock price to adjust alongside tech stocks. Institutions are focusing on its differentiated advantages in energy efficiency optimization and supply chain stability.

Investment Insights: The trend of AI infrastructure extending from chips to full-stack data centers is clear, and SPCX's layout in liquid cooling and high-power deployment has long-term growth potential. Investors are advised to verify its order implementation status and gross margin improvement trends. With significant short-term volatility, it is suitable for combination allocation with core targets like NVDA and TSM, focusing on signals of Fed policy shifts and actual execution of AI capital expenditures.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Analyst Noname tweeted that Bitcoin will not hit bottom this quarter. Sideways oscillation indicates indecision, and at this price level, indecision often leads to a downward breakout before an upward breakout. It will take at least another quarter for the market to clarify. His predictions for the 2026 trend are as follows:

• July: False stability. Bear market trap rebound. Market reshuffling eliminates the indecisive.
• August: The real collapse begins. First test of the $50,000 area.
• September: Continued pressure. W-shaped bottom structure begins to form.
• October: The real bottom. Accumulation area. Personally, I will adopt aggressive strategies at this stage.
• November: Signs of recovery begin, bottom rebound starts.
• December: The first breakthrough of $100,000 since the bear market began.

1. According to reports from the Iranian Fars News Agency citing sources, the navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, and the strait will remain closed as long as the U.S. continues its provocative actions.

2. According to the Korea Herald, the second phase of South Korea's central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot project, the "Han River Plan," is about to officially launch. The Bank of Korea and commercial banks are making final preparations for real transaction testing of deposit tokens in the second phase.

3. The top 50 memecoins on the Robinhood platform involve approximately 164,500 traders, with about 63% of accounts in a loss state and only about 37% achieving profits.

4. Data: Tokens ZRO, KAITO, H, etc., will see large unlocks this week, with ZRO unlocking worth over $20 million.

5. SK Group Chairman and Chairman of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Choi Tae-won, stated at a media seminar during the Jeju Forum that global semiconductor demand will significantly increase next year, with demand in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector expected to rise by 60% to 100% compared to this year, and overall semiconductor product demand will also grow by at least 50% to 60%. However, the new supply next year is expected to be nearly zero, and the supply-demand gap may further widen.

6. Crypto KOL Ansem analyzed on the X platform that he has set a price alert of $750 on Zcash, which has been sideways for nearly a year. If it breaks to a new high, the next wave of this trend will be very strong. Ansem emphasized that he currently holds no long positions, but it would be a mistake not to build a position if it breaks.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-----------|----|-----------------|------| | Focus on U.S. Pre/Post Market | U.S. | Tech Giants Earnings (Google, Tesla, etc.) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecasts

• U.S.-Iran Situation Development: Continue to monitor the impact of diplomatic and military dynamics on the energy market.
• Fed Officials' Speeches: Potential hawkish statements continue to shape interest rate expectations.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts believe that the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict injects significant risk premiums into the crude oil market, and the short-term upward trend in oil prices is expected to continue, but caution is needed regarding the actual degree of supply disruption. In the U.S. stock market, the earnings week for tech giants will become the focus, with institutions like Bank of America warning that if capital expenditures from the Mag7 slow down, it may trigger a broader correction, advising attention to valuation and execution risks. The cryptocurrency market shows resilience amid macro uncertainties, with institutions optimistic about long-term narratives but short-term volatility increasing. Overall, geopolitical factors dominate commodities, while monetary policy expectations and corporate earnings drive equity markets, and investors should remain cautious and focus on key data verification.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.