BIT Research: After the meeting between the Chinese and American heads of state, the market has begun to reprice "long-term competition."

The current market is in a macro repricing phase dominated by geopolitical factors and policy expectations. At the beginning of the China-U.S. summit, the market interpreted it as a signal of easing relations, leading to a rise in tech stocks, a weakening dollar, and a simultaneous increase in Bitcoin. The market initially expected relief from tariff pressures, stabilization of the AI supply chain, and a decrease in geopolitical risks related to Taiwan and Iran, resulting in a rapid rise in risk-on sentiment.

However, as details of the meeting were gradually disclosed, the market realized that the previous optimistic pricing lacked sufficient support: there was no substantial easing of tariff policies, no breakthroughs in AI export controls, and no significant progress on the Iran and Taiwan issues. Inflation concerns further evolved into expectations of policy tightening, leading to renewed selling pressure on bonds and precious metals.

From a long-term perspective, this meeting still reflects several noteworthy clues: the marginal weakening of the dollar's dominance, diversification of global reserve asset allocation, restructuring of AI and semiconductor supply chains, and the deepening strategic competition between China and the U.S. in cutting-edge technology fields such as low Earth orbit satellites and space.

From Risk-On to Repricing: The Market Begins to Return to Inflation and Geopolitical Logic

Before the meeting, the market was trading on the "easing relations" logic. Tech stocks and commodities rose, the dollar weakened, and Bitcoin rebounded, indicating a clear recovery in market risk appetite. Particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, the market initially expected that the U.S. might show goodwill by approving Nvidia's chip sales to China, thereby promoting easing on broader issues. However, as the results of the meeting were further digested, market sentiment quickly cooled. There was no substantial easing of tariff pressures, and the approved chip sales such as Nvidia's H200 had not materialized; meanwhile, Beijing continued to promote domestic AI alternatives and reduce reliance on external AI chips.

More importantly, key geopolitical risks such as those related to Taiwan and Iran had not been resolved. As a result, the market recalibrated to account for the risk that oil prices and inflation pressures might persist longer, leading to a continuation of the global bond sell-off and rising real yields, which also weighed on the performance of gold and silver. In the short term, this meeting was favorable for oil prices but negative for gold and sovereign bonds; Bitcoin once again demonstrated its characteristics as a "macro liquidity asset."

The issue is that Bitcoin has not been priced as a "structural safe-haven asset" in the short term, but is still primarily influenced by real yields, risk appetite, and liquidity conditions, performing more like a high beta Nasdaq rather than "digital gold." This also means that in macro events like the China-U.S. summit, Bitcoin often behaves more like a risk asset rather than a traditional safe-haven asset.

From Agricultural Procurement to Space Competition: The Long-Term Competitive Landscape Continues to Deepen

In addition to macro pricing, this meeting further reflects that the long-term competitive framework between China and the U.S. has not changed. In terms of agricultural procurement, China committed to purchasing at least $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually from 2026 to 2028, slightly above the lower end of market expectations but below the optimistic scenarios some traders had previously bet on.

However, the market's reaction was limited. The reason is that China's new import demand remains limited, and Brazilian agricultural products continue to squeeze U.S. suppliers due to price advantages; at the same time, since the first round of the trade war under Trump, Beijing has been continuously promoting diversification of agricultural import sources to reduce reliance on U.S. agricultural products. Some of the favorable outcomes had already been priced in. China had previously committed to purchasing 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans, so the additional space that could be released from this meeting was relatively limited. In contrast, fertilizer stocks became one of the few moderately benefiting sectors, supported by agricultural procurement commitments and boosted by supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict.

Meanwhile, U.S.-China technological competition is further extending into the fields of low Earth orbit satellites and space infrastructure. China is building a low Earth orbit satellite constellation to rival Starlink, but it still lags behind SpaceX in scale and capability. The market believes that if SpaceX secures more capital support through an IPO in the future, its expansion speed may further widen the gap with Chinese competitors.

Overall, while this meeting released some phase-specific results, including moderate trade commitments and the continuation of subsequent dialogue mechanisms, structural contradictions have not truly eased. The U.S. and China seem to be "managing competition" rather than "resolving competition": both sides maintain sufficient contact to avoid further escalation of the situation, but this is far from enough to change the long-term direction. In this context, the trends of diversification of global reserve assets, restructuring of AI supply chains, and the long-term nature of geopolitical risks continue. For the market, the truly important variables are no longer just the meeting itself, but the repricing of global liquidity, real yields, and the long-term strategic competitive landscape.

Some of the views above are from BIT on Target, contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.