Bitget UEX Daily Report｜U.S. Government Considers AI Equity Investment; Trump Warns of Federal Reserve Rate Hike Risks; Semiconductor Sector Plummets (June 8, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Trump Calls Fed Rate Hike a Mistake

• U.S. President Trump stated that raising interest rates would be a wrong decision as the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to preside over the first monetary policy meeting on June 16-17, emphasizing that current economic data is strong but does not necessitate a rate hike, and instead, a rate cut should be considered.
• Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations, no longer anticipating a rate cut from the Fed this year due to a strong labor market, pushing the rate cut timeline to 2027, and slightly raising the probability of a rate hike to 20%. Market Impact: Trump's statement intensified policy uncertainty, combined with strong employment data, raised market expectations for the Fed to maintain or increase rates, negatively impacting risk assets in the short term and pushing up bond yields.

International Commodities

Geopolitical Factors Affect Oil Prices and Shipping Costs

• Trump urged Iran to return to the negotiating table and hinted that Israel needs to accept the U.S.-Iran agreement; the toll for the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased compared to the early stages of the conflict.
• Crude oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical dynamics and macro data. Market Impact: The reduced toll may alleviate pressure on energy transportation costs, but geopolitical tensions still support oil prices; overall, this helps stabilize the commodity supply chain, but caution is needed regarding the potential impact of negotiation progress on prices.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. Government Explores Equity Stake in AI Companies

• Senior government officials held preliminary discussions with large AI companies, focusing on voluntary share transfers in exchange for public investment returns.
• OpenAI plans to significantly upgrade ChatGPT, transforming it into a "super app" to increase revenue and respond to competition. Market Impact: If this move progresses, it may strengthen the government's strategic influence on AI development while boosting the valuations of related companies, but it may also raise concerns about regulation and marketization, benefiting the AI-themed sector in the short term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,345/ounce, +0.3%~0.5%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $68.5/ounce, +0.5%~1.5%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $92.65/barrel, +2.3%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $95.5/barrel, +2.5%~2.9%
• U.S. Dollar Index: Approximately 100.08, +0.02%

Commodity Market Analysis: Spot gold traded around $4,300/ounce on Monday, having fallen nearly 5% last week due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, reaching a new low in over two months. Iran launched multiple rounds of missiles at Israel as a warning (Israel claimed to have intercepted all), coupled with the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz leading to energy supply disruptions, pushing oil prices up and exacerbating inflation concerns. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate hike (the probability of a December rate hike rose to about 70%), continuing to pressure gold prices. Short-term macro and geopolitical factors are intertwined, putting certain pressure on gold, but its safe-haven attributes still provide support.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,700, 24H +4.9%
• ETH: Approximately $1,700, 24H +8.5%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.27 trillion, 24H +4.4%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H approximately $685 million, with short positions liquidated at $558 million.
• BTC Spot ETF: As of last Friday's close, the BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $326 million in a single day.

According to JPMorgan analysts: Strategy may need to rebuild dollar reserves to restore investor confidence and reduce concerns about future Bitcoin sales. Strategy's recent sale of 32 Bitcoins "spooked" the market, with current dollar reserves only covering about 6.3 months of dividend payments. Analysts noted that Strategy currently holds 843,706 Bitcoins, with an average cost of $75,699, resulting in an estimated paper loss of about $11.5 billion at current prices. If the current purchasing pace is maintained, Bitcoin purchases could reach about $32 billion by 2026.

Analysts have turned cautious on digital assets, expecting the likelihood of cryptocurrency legislation passing this year to be below 50%. Bitcoin has traded below its estimated production cost (approximately $77,000) for most of the time, with total inflows into digital assets this year annualized at about $52 billion, roughly half of the 2025 level. Despite the cautious stance, analysts indicated that the current weak market sentiment could become a "bullish reversal signal" in the future. Whether positive developments can occur in the second half of the year depends on Strategy's clarity regarding its annual $1.7 billion dividend payment strategy and the passage of cryptocurrency market structure legislation.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 1.35%, at 50,866.78 points, with consecutive declines dragged down by employment data.
• S&P 500: Down 2.64%, at 7,383.74 points, showing a broad correction.
• Nasdaq: Down 4.18%, at 25,709.43 points, with clear downward pressure from technology and semiconductor sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Approximately $205, down about 6.2%
• Apple (AAPL): Approximately $307, down about 1.25%
• Meta Platforms (META): Approximately $593, down about 5.5%
• Tesla (TSLA): Approximately $391, down about 6.6%
• Amazon (AMZN): Approximately $246, down about 3.1%
• Microsoft (MSFT): Approximately $417, down about 2.7%
• Google (GOOGL): Approximately $365, down about 1.0%

Summary: The seven major tech giants faced widespread pressure, with NVIDIA and Tesla both dropping over 6%, and Meta falling over 5%, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected May non-farm employment data (adding 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 85,000). This data significantly raised market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December (from about 50% to around 70%), compounded by inflation concerns triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and significantly suppressing high-valuation growth stocks. The enthusiasm for AI themes cooled in the short term, further amplifying selling pressure in the sector, despite some companies like NVIDIA having positive news such as deepening cooperation with the South Korean supply chain, which still struggled to counter the adjustment trend driven by macro factors.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector down over 10%

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology down over 13%, Intel down over 11%, AMD down nearly 11%.
• Driving Factors: The cooling of the AI boom combined with strong employment data raised rate hike expectations, triggering a sell-off in growth stocks.

CAR-T Therapy Concept rose against the trend

• Representative stock: Johnson & Johnson up over 2%.
• Driving Factors: The defensive attributes of the pharmaceutical sector became prominent.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. NVIDIA (NVDA) - Deepening Cooperation with South Korea

Event Overview: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently visited South Korea, meeting with senior executives including SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, SK Hynix CEO Lee Seok-hee, and Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Han Jong-hee, and attended a dinner to discuss cooperation details. The company announced a multi-year technical collaboration with SK Hynix to jointly develop memory technologies for products such as the Vera Rubin AI platform, Vera CPU, RTX Spark, and Jetson Thor, focusing on advancing HBM4 high-bandwidth memory and customized storage solutions to accelerate trillion-parameter model inference and AI factory upgrades. Huang emphasized South Korea's key role in the memory sector and stated that this visit would bring numerous business opportunities to South Korea while exploring broader cooperation in robotics and telecom network AI applications. This move is an important step in NVIDIA's supply chain diversification and capacity assurance strategy, as South Korean companies currently hold about 70% of the global HBM market. Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions believe that this deepened cooperation not only solidifies NVIDIA's dominant position in the AI hardware supply chain but also accelerates the mass production of the Vera Rubin platform through HBM4 certification with Samsung and SK Hynix, potentially alleviating concerns about a chip shortage. Analysts pointed out that in the context of sustained high demand for global AI infrastructure, such strategic alliances will further enhance NVIDIA's competitive barriers, although short-term sector selling pressure remains. Investment Insight: In the long run, strong demand in the AI infrastructure and robotics sectors will continue to drive NVIDIA's growth, and investors should pay attention to supply chain execution progress; however, caution is needed regarding the impact of the macro interest rate environment on valuations, and it is recommended to gradually position in fundamentally leading AI leaders.

2. Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Flex (FLEX) - Inclusion in S&P 500

Event Overview: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the inclusion of chip manufacturer Marvell Technology (MRVL) and electronic manufacturing services provider Flex (FLEX) in the S&P 500 index, effective at the opening of U.S. markets on June 22, while removing Pool Corp and Campbell's. This move significantly enhances the weight of the information technology sector in the benchmark index, reflecting the strong performance of both companies in the AI data center field in recent years. Marvell has benefited from revenue growth in data centers, achieving a high market capitalization; Flex has gained recognition for its electronic manufacturing capabilities. This inclusion will attract inflows from passive funds and actively managed funds constrained by indices. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view the liquidity improvement and valuation re-evaluation effects brought by index inclusion positively, as such events historically tend to accompany short-term stock price boosts. Analysts emphasize that Marvell's layout in AI-related chips and Flex's synergy in manufacturing will benefit from the continuation of the AI capital expenditure cycle. Investment Insight: Inflows from passive funds typically provide short-term support for related stocks, making it suitable to focus on liquidity and valuation enhancement opportunities; long-term investors should assess holdings in conjunction with trends in AI data center demand.

3. Meta Platforms (META) - Financing Discussions

Event Overview: According to reports, executives at Meta Platforms are internally discussing the possibility of issuing new shares worth hundreds of billions of dollars to support an AI capital expenditure plan of up to $145 billion by 2026 (previously raised guidance). This move aims to address the high capital demands of AI infrastructure construction, while competitors like Alphabet have already resorted to equity financing to meet similar expenditures. The company subsequently denied some details of the reports, but the backdrop of expanding AI investment is clear. Currently, Meta is in a heavy investment phase in AI, with capital expenditure growth significantly outpacing revenue growth, raising market concerns about free cash flow and equity dilution. Market Interpretation: Investment banks believe that although short-term financing news has intensified valuation pressure, it reflects Meta's strong commitment to long-term AI layout. Institutions point out that with robust growth in advertising business support, if AI investments yield efficient returns, it will bring a new round of growth momentum for the company, but execution efficiency and competitive landscape should be closely monitored. Investment Insight: Focus on the ability of capital expenditure to convert into actual revenue, as the long-term AI ecosystem layout still holds value; it is recommended that investors assess the risk-reward ratio amid volatility and avoid excessive chasing.

4. Eli Lilly (LLY) - New Generation Weight Loss Drug Trials

Event Overview: Eli Lilly announced the results of the Phase III clinical trial for its new generation weight loss drug Retatrutide. This drug, administered once a week, can achieve significant weight loss (up to 28.3%) in obese adult patients while reducing the severity of moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea by 60.6% and alleviating knee osteoarthritis pain by up to 73.1%. Trial data will be presented at the 2026 American Diabetes Association conference, demonstrating its multi-indication potential in treating obesity and related complications, far exceeding the performance of existing drugs. The company is advancing multiple TRIUMPH series trials to lay the groundwork for future regulatory approvals. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view its differentiated competitive advantage in the weight loss drug market positively, with multiple positive clinical data reinforcing investor confidence, and analysts expect this drug to become Eli Lilly's next growth engine. Investment Insight: The long-term growth story driven by pharmaceutical innovation remains solid, and attention should be paid to subsequent approval progress and commercialization; in the short term, it can be considered as a defensive sector allocation choice.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. According to CoinDesk, NYDIG's Global Research Director Greg Cipolaro stated that the decline in Bitcoin does not have a single cause but is due to multiple overlapping factors. The AI sector continues to siphon funds from the cryptocurrency market, as investors prepare for large tech IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., requiring institutions to raise cash or reduce existing positions. The U.S. Treasury claimed to have seized approximately $1 billion in Iranian-related crypto assets, raising concerns about government intervention in the digital asset market. Quantum computing threats have again become a focus, and Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, while negligible in supply terms, has a larger psychological impact.

Cipolaro noted that on-chain indicators show several metrics are approaching historical lows, with the MVRV ratio dropping to 1.2 and the proportion of profitable supply recently falling below 50%. However, the current 53% drawdown is far below the previous cycle's levels of 75%-90%, with only 242 days since the peak. This suggests that either institutions have fundamentally altered Bitcoin's cyclical behavior or the market has not truly entered a capitulation phase.

2. Trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that he has basically exited the cryptocurrency market recently and is focusing his efforts on stock market research and trading. He believes that compared to the current crypto market, the stock market offers more investment opportunities and is more intellectually challenging and valuable for research. He will maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward the crypto market until highly attractive risk-return opportunities arise.

3. Ethereum co-founder and Consensys executive Joe Lubin recently responded to market controversies arising from budget cuts, personnel departures, and structural adjustments at the Ethereum Foundation. He stated that these changes are not a crisis but necessary optimization adjustments. In the future, the foundation will narrow its functions, focusing on maintaining the core technology and underlying principles of the network, remaining absolutely neutral, while other institutions will handle ecological expansion and institutional cooperation.

4. On-chain analyst PlanB expressed on the X platform that from the ETH/BTC ratio chart, Ethereum's overall performance over the past decade has significantly lagged behind Bitcoin. Data shows that the current ETH/BTC ratio is about 0.026, equivalent to levels in March 2016, indicating that ETH has returned to a value position relative to BTC from ten years ago. During the Bitcoin bull market in 2023/2024, ETH did not see significant increases, a situation also seen in 2017 and 2021, indicating that even now, Ethereum lacks upward momentum relative to Bitcoin.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|----------|-----| | TBD | U.S. | Follow-up on relevant economic data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Federal Reserve Meeting Preparation: Meeting on June 16-17, focus on Warsh's statements and policy signals.
• Apple Developer Conference: Kicking off the next morning, focus on AI-related updates.

Institutional Views:

Strong May non-farm employment data (adding 172,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations) significantly altered market expectations for the Fed's path, pushing interest rate futures to show an increased probability of rate hikes and leading to a substantial pullback in U.S. stocks, particularly in tech. Analysts point out that while the resilience of the labor market supports economic growth, it also exacerbates inflation concerns, prompting institutions like Goldman Sachs to delay rate cut expectations. In this context, AI and growth stocks face pressure, but signals of geopolitical easing and corporate cooperation news provide some buffer. Investment banks generally believe that short-term volatility will increase, recommending a focus on defensive sectors and fundamentally strong AI leaders; the rebound in the crypto market shows resilience, but ETF outflows and macro data still pose challenges. Overall, the market is shifting from a "rate cut trade" to a "higher for longer" scenario, and investors need to remain flexible and focus on data-driven decision-making.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.