$75 billion in risk asset redistribution: How will SpaceX's IPO affect US stocks and Bitcoin?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

In this SpaceX IPO, what’s most worth watching is not "the rocket company finally going public," but how it brings together U.S. stocks, AI, cryptocurrencies, and passive fund flows at the same table.

According to reports, SpaceX (SPCX.O) opened at an indicative price of $172 on its first day of trading, with an IPO issue price of $135 per share. This fundraising amounts to approximately $75 billion, with a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, nearly three times the size of Saudi Aramco's IPO in 2019, making it the "largest IPO in history" in the market's view.

Before the market opened on June 12, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose, and SpaceX was seen as one of the most important events of the day; pre-market quotes indicated that SPCX might open between $170 and $175, about 26% to 30% higher than the IPO price of $135. This suggests that the U.S. stock market is treating SpaceX as a "super growth stock with an AI + space + Musk premium," rather than just a space manufacturing company.

Bitcoin itself did not surge significantly due to SpaceX's IPO; the WSJ reported that Bitcoin was stable around $63,300 before the listing. However, the crypto derivatives market preemptively "speculated on SpaceX," with SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid pointing to an opening price of about $175, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $200 million. This means that while spot Bitcoin remained calm, on-chain/crypto traders treated SpaceX as the next high beta narrative target.

Large-scale funds are repositioning to grab shares

Is the $75 billion IPO the largest siphon in history? The answer is: if we only look at the primary market for IPOs, it almost is. $75 billion means that funds that might have stayed in stocks, ETFs, money market funds, crypto assets, or other tech stocks are being redirected to a new stock. More critically, reports indicate that SpaceX's subscription demand reached three to four times, with potential demand exceeding $250 billion, which means the market is not just "siphoning off $75 billion," but that larger-scale funds are repositioning to grab shares.

This siphoning may not immediately cause a decline in U.S. stocks, as it could also bring about a wealth effect: winners at the IPO will profit at the opening, index funds will expect buying pressure, and retail investors will chase new narratives, all of which will amplify risk appetite in the short term. However, the medium-term risk lies in the fact that if SpaceX is quickly included in major indices, retirement accounts, passive ETFs, and model portfolios will passively increase their holdings, making ordinary investors' asset allocations more concentrated in the AI/tech giant narrative. The Guardian's commentary also pointed out that SpaceX and the subsequent wave of AI IPOs may bind the financial future of American investors more deeply to AI assets.

The best historical mirror for this is the Coinbase listing in 2021. Coinbase went public directly on April 14, 2021, with an opening price of $381 and a fully diluted valuation of about $102 billion; on the same day, Bitcoin reached a then-high of about $64,800. However, this "crypto finance entering mainstream capital markets" highlight later became a short-term top signal: by May 19, 2021, Bitcoin had once dropped to around $30,000, nearly halving from its peak. Strictly speaking, from April 14 to May 19 is about five weeks, just under six weeks, but the direction of "nearly 50% drop about five to six weeks after listing" holds true.

Thus, saying that SpaceX will follow in Coinbase's footsteps does not mean that Bitcoin will inevitably crash as soon as SpaceX goes public; rather, it means that when a representative company of an industry enters the public market at an extremely high valuation, it often signifies that the narrative has been maximally priced. Coinbase was the "crypto exchange listing as the coming-of-age ceremony for the crypto bull market," while SpaceX resembles the "coming-of-age ceremony for the AI, space, and Musk ecosystem." Coming-of-age ceremonies are lively, but they do not guarantee that there won't be a hangover afterward.

SpaceX holding Bitcoin may be another institutional adoption milestone

The counterpoint is that Bitcoin is not entirely on the side of being siphoned off this time. According to WSJ and Business Insider citing SpaceX's S-1 filing, SpaceX's balance sheet holds about 18,712 Bitcoins, with a cost of approximately $661 million; estimated at around $63,300, the market value is close to $1.2 billion. This lends endorsement to the Bitcoin narrative: it is no longer just an asset of exchanges, mining companies, or crypto-native firms like Strategy, but appears on the balance sheet of the world's most watched tech/space giant.

However, this endorsement must distinguish between "symbolic value" and "financial weight." The $1.2 billion in Bitcoin, relative to SpaceX's valuation of about $1.77 trillion, only accounts for about 0.07%; it is enough to strengthen Bitcoin's image as a corporate treasury asset, but not enough to become a core pillar of SpaceX's valuation. Moreover, there are also divergences in research: some studies indicate that institutional adoption and ETFs will increase the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock indices, weakening its traditional role of "diversifying risk."

According to on-chain portfolio research for 2026, crypto investment returns are more determined by the timing of entry rather than the allocation model itself. Therefore, SpaceX's IPO is a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. On one hand, the $75 billion IPO may become a siphon for risk assets, causing some funds to flow from the crypto market to more mainstream and liquid AI/space stocks; on the other hand, SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC gives Bitcoin an endorsement from an institutional balance sheet.

In conclusion, the SpaceX IPO has a short-term bias towards "fund competition" in the crypto market, while in the medium to long term, it leans towards "narrative endorsement" for Bitcoin. If SPCX surges significantly after the listing, the market will say that funds are leaving cryptocurrencies and turning to AI + space; but if more non-crypto companies add BTC to their balance sheets in the future, SpaceX's 18,712 Bitcoins may be reinterpreted as another milestone in institutional adoption. This is what makes it fascinating: the same IPO can be both a siphon and a certification stamp.