$75 billion in risk asset redistribution: How will SpaceX's IPO affect U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

In this SpaceX IPO, what’s most worth watching is not "the rocket company finally going public," but how it brings together U.S. stocks, AI, cryptocurrencies, and passive fund flows at the same table.

According to reports, SpaceX (SPCX.O) had an opening indicative price of $172 on its first day of trading, with an IPO issue price of $135 per share. The fundraising amount is approximately $75 billion, with a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, nearly three times the size of Saudi Aramco's IPO in 2019, making it the "largest IPO in history" in the market's view.

Before the opening on June 12, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose, and SpaceX was seen as one of the most important events of the day; pre-market quotes indicated that SPCX might open between $170 and $175, about 26% to 30% higher than the IPO price of $135. This indicates that the U.S. stock market is treating SpaceX as a "super growth stock with an AI + space + Musk premium," rather than just a simple aerospace manufacturing company.

Bitcoin itself did not surge significantly due to SpaceX's IPO; the WSJ reported that Bitcoin was stable around $63,300 before the listing; however, the crypto derivatives market preemptively "speculated on SpaceX," with SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid pointing to an opening price of about $175, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $200 million. This means that while spot Bitcoin remained calm, on-chain/crypto traders viewed SpaceX as the next high beta narrative target.

Large-scale funds are repositioning to seize shares

Is the $75 billion IPO the largest siphon in history? The answer is: if we only look at the IPO primary market, it almost is. $75 billion means that funds that might have stayed in stocks, ETFs, money market funds, crypto assets, or other tech stocks are being redirected to a new stock. More importantly, reports indicate that the subscription demand for SpaceX reached three to four times, with potential demand exceeding $250 billion, which means the market is not just "siphoning off $75 billion," but that larger-scale funds are repositioning to seize shares.

This siphoning may not immediately cause a decline in U.S. stocks, as it could also bring about a wealth effect: winners at the opening, expectations of buying from index funds, and retail investors chasing new narratives could all amplify risk appetite in the short term. However, the mid-term risk is that if SpaceX is quickly included in major indices, retirement accounts, passive ETFs, and model portfolios will passively increase their holdings, making ordinary investors' asset allocations more concentrated in the AI/tech giant narrative. The Guardian's commentary also pointed out that SpaceX and the subsequent wave of AI IPOs may bind the financial future of American investors more deeply to AI assets.

The best historical mirror here is Coinbase's listing in 2021. Coinbase went public directly on April 14, 2021, with an opening price of $381 and a fully diluted valuation of about $102 billion; on the same day, Bitcoin reached about $64,800, its then-high. However, this "crypto finance entering mainstream capital markets" highlight later became a short-term top signal: by May 19, 2021, Bitcoin had once dropped to around $30,000, nearly halving from its high. Strictly speaking, from April 14 to May 19 is about five weeks, not quite six weeks, but the direction of "falling nearly 50% about five to six weeks after listing" holds true.

So saying that SpaceX will follow in Coinbase's footsteps does not mean that Bitcoin will necessarily crash as soon as SpaceX goes public; rather, it means that when a representative company of an industry enters the public market at an extremely high valuation, it often signifies that the narrative has been maximally priced. Coinbase was the "crypto exchange listing as a rite of passage for the crypto bull market," while SpaceX is like the "rite of passage for the AI, space, and Musk ecosystem." Rites of passage are lively, but they do not guarantee that there won't be a hangover afterward.

SpaceX holding Bitcoin may be another institutional adoption milestone

The opposing view is that Bitcoin is not entirely on the side of being siphoned off this time. According to WSJ and Business Insider citing SpaceX's S-1 filing, SpaceX's balance sheet holds about 18,712 Bitcoins, with a cost of about $661 million; estimated at around $63,300, the market value is close to $1.2 billion. This lends endorsement to the Bitcoin narrative: it is no longer just an asset of exchanges, mining companies, or strategies like "crypto-native companies," but appears on the balance sheets of the world's most watched tech/aerospace giants.

However, this endorsement needs to distinguish between "symbolic value" and "financial weight." The $1.2 billion in Bitcoin, relative to SpaceX's valuation of about $1.77 trillion, only accounts for about 0.07%; it is enough to strengthen Bitcoin's image as a corporate treasury asset but not enough to become a core pillar of SpaceX's valuation. Moreover, there are also divergences in research: some studies indicate that institutional adoption and ETFs will increase the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock indices, weakening its traditional role of "diversifying risk."

According to on-chain portfolio research in 2026, crypto investment returns are more determined by the timing of entry rather than the allocation model itself. Therefore, SpaceX's IPO is a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. On one hand, the $75 billion IPO may become a siphon for risk assets, causing some funds to flow from the crypto market to more mainstream and liquid AI/space stocks; on the other hand, SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC gives Bitcoin an endorsement from an institutional balance sheet.

In conclusion, the SpaceX IPO is likely to be more about "fund competition" in the short term for the crypto market, while in the medium to long term, it leans towards "narrative endorsement" for Bitcoin. If SPCX surges significantly after the listing, the market will say that funds are leaving cryptocurrencies and turning to AI + space; but if more non-crypto companies include BTC on their balance sheets in the future, SpaceX's 18,712 Bitcoins may be reinterpreted as another milestone of institutional adoption. This is what makes it fascinating: the same IPO could be both a siphon and a certification mark.