BIT Research: Will the 2022 Annual Meeting Be Replayed? The World Cup May Become the Endpoint of the Bitcoin Bear Market

The current market is in the final stage of this Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed in early 2026 is progressing as expected: Wave A fell to the range of $60,000--$69,000, Wave B rebounded to the range of $80,000--$90,000, peaking around $83,000, and the market has now entered the C wave adjustment phase.

From the sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to historically low levels, showing a high similarity to the bottom structure of the 2022 bear market. Although we are currently closer to a "tradeable bottom," the cyclical indicators have not yet issued a final reversal signal. During this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term fluctuations to the conditions for forming a bottom and the macro catalysts that may appear in the next bull market.

The bear market enters its final stage: $50,000--$55,000 may become a key area

From a technical structure perspective, the top formation in 2025 is very similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, fell below the 21-week moving average, and then weakened again after a phase of rebound. Historical experience shows that a true bottom is often accompanied by a decrease in trading volume and a narrowing of the trading range, rather than a rapid reversal.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at a historical low, the stochastic indicator has entered a deeply oversold range, and the Bitcoin price is also approaching two standard deviations below the weekly moving average, with around $61,576 potentially providing temporary support. According to the cyclical analysis framework, the market's ultimate low has not yet appeared.

Combining with Elliott Wave Theory, since the bear market began in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C corrective structure. With Wave B rebounding to $83,000 in mid-May and ending, the current decline of Wave C is unfolding, and the target area may point to around $50,000, with the low expected to occur around the FIFA World Cup (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000--$55,000 range may become the core bottom area of this bear market.

Peak inflation may become an important catalyst for the next bull market

From a macro perspective, the current market environment shares some similarities with 2022, where inflation remains the main factor suppressing the performance of risk assets. In the previous cycle, the peak of inflation became an important turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may reappear in this cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin has achieved a price of about $54,591, which is considered an important reference for determining whether the market has entered an undervalued range. Historical experience shows that while the price may briefly fall below this level, it usually does not stay below it for long. Meanwhile, the cyclical indicators have not yet released a bottom confirmation signal, and the actual low may still need to wait for confirmation in the next 1 to 3 months.

If the price completes the bottoming process and re-establishes itself above the 21-week moving average, while the monthly cyclical indicators show a positive reversal, it is expected to confirm the start of a new rising cycle. Until then, the market will remain in the bottom-building phase.

Overall, this bear market has entered its final stage. The A-B-C corrective structure, cyclical indicators, and macro background all point in the same direction: the $50,000--$55,000 range is highly likely to correspond to the value area of this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 represents an important long-term reference level. Although the specific timing of the low still depends on inflation trends and the confirmation of cyclical indicators, historical experience suggests that a true bottom often does not present itself as an obvious buying opportunity. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cyclical signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin near the $50,000--$55,000 range.

Some of the views above are from BIT on Target, contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.