Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Micron's earnings report greatly exceeded expectations, boosting the AI sector; oil prices fell, alleviating supply concerns; Trump's housing bill signing delayed

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics The results of the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests show that all major banks passed smoothly, clearing the way for subsequent increases in stock buybacks and dividends. The tests assumed a severe recession scenario, including a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, a 30% drop in residential prices, and an unemployment rate rising to 10%. Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses, bank capital buffers remain sufficient. Market interpretation suggests this strengthens the resilience of the financial system, helping to stabilize investor confidence, but also reflects the Federal Reserve's ongoing concern about potential economic downside risks, which may influence future monetary policy paths.

International Commodities International crude oil futures fell sharply, with Brent crude oil down about 4.3% to around $73.74 per barrel, and WTI crude oil down about 3.9% to $70.34 per barrel, essentially returning to levels before the U.S.-Iran conflict. As more tankers leave the Strait of Hormuz, supply concerns have eased. Trump pressured oil companies to lower prices more quickly or face a Department of Justice investigation, further intensifying downward pressure on oil prices. In the short term, easing geopolitical tensions combined with expectations of supply recovery will continue to suppress oil prices.

Macroeconomic Policy Trump canceled the planned signing ceremony and press conference for the housing bill, stating he hopes Congress will prioritize passing the "Save America Act," emphasizing that interest rate cuts are key to addressing housing costs, and he believes that interest rate policy is more important based on his real estate experience. This move highlights a shift in policy priorities, which may delay measures to increase housing supply and have a certain impact on short-term sentiment in the real estate market.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Updates)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4003 per ounce, 24h change -0.4%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $58 per ounce, 24h change -4%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $70 per barrel, 24h change -0.5%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $73.4 per barrel, 24h change -0.5%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.6 points, 24h change +0.2%

Driving Factors Analysis: Crude oil prices continued to decline, mainly influenced by improved navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, eased supply concerns, and Trump's related statements, leading to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premium. Gold and silver, as safe-haven assets, faced synchronized pressure, while the dollar index's slight strengthening further weakened their attractiveness. Overall, on the macro level, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and easing geopolitical tensions are interconnected, with commodities facing adjustment pressure in the short term. However, if inflation data is moderate, precious metals may attract allocation funds at lower levels. Institutions generally believe that oil prices may fluctuate within the current range in the short term, focusing on subsequent OPEC+ dynamics and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $60,854, -3.17%;
• ETH: $1,619, -3.01%;
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.19 trillion, -2.4%;
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $998 million, long position liquidation $799 million;
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approximately $60,829, with balanced long and short liquidations nearby, but a large number of short liquidation leverages are concentrated in the price range of $61,500-$63,500. If prices continue to rise, it may trigger a chain of short stop-losses, forming a "short squeeze" market. The main long liquidation area is concentrated at $59,000-$60,200, with the cumulative scale significantly lower than the short liquidation pressure above, indicating that the liquidation map overall shows richer liquidity above and a short-term bias towards upward price attraction.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $17.78 million yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: The cryptocurrency market is influenced by fluctuations in the U.S. tech sector and macro risk appetite. BTC has maintained important support but faces pressure. ETF fund flows show a phase of net outflows, and leveraged liquidations have intensified volatility. The Micron earnings report mentioned in the Futu early report exceeded expectations, providing support for AI-related themes, but the overall market remains constrained by the dollar's movements and risk sentiment. In the short term, the interplay of technical and funding factors may lead to divergence between BTC and ETH, with attention on macro data's transmission to risk assets. Institutional views tend to believe that AI infrastructure demand is a long-term positive, but caution is warranted regarding the risks of excessive leverage.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Approximately 51,849 points, +0.35%
• S&P 500: Approximately 7,358 points, -0.1%
• Nasdaq: Approximately 25,477 points, -0.43%

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $199, -0.52%
• AAPL: Approximately $293, -0.41%
• MSFT: Approximately $365, -2.27%
• GOOGL: Approximately $345, -0.24%
• AMZN: Approximately $233, -0.07%
• META: Approximately $557, -0.81%
• TSLA: Approximately $375, -1.59%
• SPCX: Approximately $154, -1.01%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow relatively stable while the Nasdaq faced pressure, mainly due to a pullback in chip stocks. Micron's earnings report significantly exceeded expectations and raised guidance, leading to a surge in after-hours trading that boosted AI confidence, although some memory-related stocks still face adjustments. Jensen Huang emphasized at the shareholder meeting that AI has entered a profitable era, reinforcing long-term optimistic expectations for the "AI factory" concept. There is significant divergence among individual stocks: demand for AI infrastructure drives some companies strongly, while specific events or valuation pressures lead to differences. The overall tech sector seeks balance amid macro uncertainty, with the AI theme remaining the core narrative.

Sector Movement Observation The semiconductor-related sector showed divergence catalyzed by Micron's earnings report, with some stocks rebounding strongly. Representative stocks like Micron saw significant post-market increases, driven by strong AI storage demand and raised guidance. The Korean market's KOSPI surged, with SK Hynix and other related stocks leading the way, reflecting global storage industry chain linkage.

III. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Micron Technology (MU) - Earnings Report Greatly Exceeded Expectations, AI Storage Demand Validated Strong Event Overview: Micron Technology released its Q3 earnings report for fiscal year 2026, with revenue reaching $41.46 billion (far exceeding market expectations of about $35.7 billion), adjusted EPS of $25.11 (significantly higher than the expected $20.50), and a gross margin of 84.9%. The data center business set a record, increasing by 346% year-on-year, mainly driven by tight supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). CEO Sanjay Mehrotra emphasized the strategic core position of storage chips in the AI era and noted the high stability of long-term agreements with major customers. Management also raised Q4 guidance: revenue is expected to be approximately $49-51 billion (with a fluctuation of $1 billion), and adjusted EPS is expected to be around $31, also significantly higher than analyst consensus.

Market Interpretation: Institutions like Bank of America quickly raised their target price to $1500, with the market optimistic about the visibility of AI-related memory demand extending to 2027-2028. After the earnings report, the stock price surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading to around $1205, adding over $120 billion in market value in a single day, fully reflecting the market's repricing of the real demand for AI infrastructure. Strong performance and guidance validated the indispensable nature of high-end storage like HBM in AI training and inference, alleviating some previous market concerns about supply chain and demand peaks, while also highlighting the strong correlation between the storage cycle and AI capital expenditure.

Investment Insights: This unexpected performance provides a strong catalyst for the AI storage theme, with short-term stock price reactions being positive and volatile, suitable for short-term traders to seize emotion-driven opportunities; in the medium to long term, the resilience of AI demand has been validated, and attention should be paid to subsequent quarterly increases in HBM market share, sustainability of gross margins, and overall industry inventory health. If the semiconductor sector experiences a pullback, it could be seen as a configuration window for high certainty growth tracks, but caution is needed regarding potential disruptions to capital expenditure rhythms from macro interest rates and geopolitical factors.

2. TSLA - Analysts Raise Delivery Expectations, Volatility Remains High Event Overview: Baird analysts raised Tesla's Q2 delivery expectations to approximately 392,900 units and maintained a total delivery forecast of 1.68 million units for 2026, while reiterating an "outperform" rating and a target price of $522. The market is also focused on potential strategic merger discussions between Tesla and SpaceX (expected to occur within 12-18 months).

Market Interpretation: As a high market capitalization (over $1.4 trillion) growth stock, Tesla's stock price is highly sensitive to delivery data, Robotaxi progress, and developments related to Musk's associated companies, with recent volatility significantly amplified. Analysts' optimistic expectations and potential merger narratives provide support, but intensified competition in the electric vehicle market, the macro interest rate environment, and changes in overall sector risk appetite still lead to significant intraday and overnight volatility.

Investment Insights: Suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance, focusing on delivery data and FSD/Robotaxi catalysts; high volatility presents both opportunities and risks, and it is recommended to participate in conjunction with technical analysis and position management.

3. NVDA / Semiconductor Sector Representative - Industry Chain Rumors Trigger High Volatility Event Overview: Leading semiconductor companies like Nvidia experienced noticeable pullbacks due to rumors regarding storage chip production (SK Hynix's HBM expansion slowdown), with significant increases in daily volatility for stocks within the sector, and high market capitalization leaders (such as NVDA with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion) becoming focal points for capital speculation.

Market Interpretation: Although the long-term logic of AI demand is solid, short-term uncertainties in supply chain and demand rhythms have led to profit-taking and leveraged volatility in high market capitalization semiconductor stocks, with the sector beta being high, making it susceptible to amplifying changes in market sentiment.

Investment Insights: High market capitalization tech growth stocks exhibit significant volatility driven by earnings season and industry chain news, suitable for swing trading or as satellite allocations in core holdings, and it is recommended to layout based on sector rotation opportunities verified by earnings reports like Micron's.

IV. Project & Market Dynamics

1. According to The Block, Bitcoin miner revenue continues to decline, with the 7-day moving average dropping to about $30 million per day, down from over $50 million last summer. Transaction fees contribute negligibly, totaling less than $250,000 daily. The current trading price of BTC is approximately $62,500, far below JPMorgan's estimated production cost of about $78,000, a gap that has persisted for five months, marking the longest duration in this cycle. Production costs have historically been viewed as a soft price floor, and currently, about 20% of miners are operating at a loss.
   Network-level pressures are beginning to show. Over the past six months, the beta value of mining difficulty to BTC price has risen to 0.62, with high-cost miners switching off their machines based on price fluctuations rather than continuing to operate at a loss. In the second week of June, difficulty decreased by 10%, marking the second similar magnitude adjustment this year. Publicly listed mining companies have already sold over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter to cover operating costs rather than further reduce production capacity.
2. On June 24 local time, Micron Technology announced its Q3 results for fiscal year 2026, ending May 28, with revenue of $41.46 billion, up from $23.86 billion in the previous quarter and $9.3 billion in the same period last year; under GAAP, net profit was $28.24 billion, with diluted EPS of $24.67; operating cash flow was $25.39 billion, up from $11.9 billion in the previous quarter and $4.61 billion in the same period last year. The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $49 billion and $51 billion, with adjusted EPS of $30-32.
3. U.S. President Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill that included a four-year ban on U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), temporarily canceling the planned signing ceremony and demanding that Congress first pass his proposed SAVE AMERICA ACT election bill. The CBDC clause in the housing bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar before the end of 2030, which was previously seen as an important development by the cryptocurrency industry.
4. Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of the decentralized lending protocol Aave, giving a target price of $3,500 for the AAVE token by the end of 2030, which is about 50 times the current price of around $70. The report states that Aave's revenue is linearly related to deposit size, and after the KelpDAO attack, Aave's deposits fell from $44 billion to $23 billion, and loans from $18 billion to $9.5 billion, currently viewed as a "bottom." The bank predicts that the total active assets in DeFi will increase to approximately $2.7 trillion by 2030, 37 times the current level, mainly driven by stablecoins and RWA on-chain, and is optimistic about Aave Horizon's licensed RWA lending market and the long-term growth brought by all GHO stablecoin fees going to the protocol.
5. OpenAI and Broadcom jointly released the first AI chip optimized for large language models (LLM), named Jalapeño. Broadcom's CEO stated that the chip could reduce model operating costs by about 50% and is expected to achieve large-scale deployment faster than market expectations. Meanwhile, Broadcom expects to start construction of gigawatt-level data centers in 2026 in collaboration with Microsoft and partners to support the next generation of AI computing power needs. Following the announcement, Broadcom's pre-market stock price rose by about 3%.

V. Market Calendar

June 25 (Thursday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: May PCE Price Index (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month); Q1 GDP final value (expected to remain at 1.6%); durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, etc. (data-intensive day). ★★★★
2. U.S. Stock Earnings: Blackberry (BB) earnings pre-market

June 26 (Friday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value; speeches from Federal Reserve officials (Williams, Kashkari, etc.).

Institutional Views: Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that Micron's unexpected performance injects confidence into the semiconductor and AI sectors, with strong storage demand supporting the performance of related companies. The decline in oil prices reflects easing geopolitical tensions, and short-term oil prices may maintain low-level fluctuations. Although the cryptocurrency market faces adjustments, the AI theme and institutional long-term layouts provide support. The overall market is fluctuating under the intertwining of macro policies and geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to focus on data validation and risk management. The major Wall Street banks' successful stress tests also boost the stability of the financial sector.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations, please refer to real-time market data.