Inventory: Predictions from institutions like Standard Chartered, Citibank, and Galaxy on the bottom price of Bitcoin in this round

Author | Wu Says Blockchain

TL;DR：

Bitcoin entered a downward cycle after reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly fell to around $57,800, marking a maximum drawdown of about 54% from its historical peak; as of July 14, the price rebounded to around $62,000.

As the market enters a phase of searching for a bottom, institutions such as Standard Chartered, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have successively provided their assessments. However, the nature of the predictions varies: some institutions provide a benchmark bottom, while others only indicate key support levels or pessimistic scenarios, and some belong to technical targets after breaking specific price levels.

Based on the currently available public opinions, institutional forecasts mainly focus on two ranges: $50,000 --- $60,000 and $40,000 --- $46,000; KOL judgments are more dispersed, extending as low as below $30,000.

Standard Chartered: $59,000 may be the bottom of this cycle

On June 12, Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, stated that Bitcoin may have formed a cycle bottom at around $59,000 and believes that the current "crypto winter" has ended.

Kendrick attributed the previous market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, decreased purchasing power of digital asset treasury companies like Strategy, and the shift of investor funds towards AI-related assets. At that time, Standard Chartered still maintained its target of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026.

However, Bitcoin subsequently fell to about $57,800 on July 1, briefly breaking below the $59,000 bottom indicated by Standard Chartered. Its prediction was relatively close to the actual low, but it is still insufficient to confirm that the market has completed its final bottoming process.

10x Research: Further downgraded from $55,000 to around $50,000

On June 24, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that Bitcoin might form a low after falling to around $55,000. He believes that a strong dollar, tightening liquidity, and seasonal market factors may still exert pressure on BTC.

On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. The institution previously expected Bitcoin to complete the A wave decline at around $63,000, followed by a rebound to the $80,000 --- $90,000 range, and then decline to around $50,000 through the C wave. The latest model provides a potential price range of approximately $46,628 --- $50,732.

Thus, 10x Research's judgment has gradually been downgraded from the initial $55,000 to around $50,000, but the institution also believes that the long-term allocation value of Bitcoin will begin to emerge once it falls below $55,000.

CryptoQuant: $53,600 may constitute a valuation bottom

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out in a report released in June that Bitcoin had entered an on-chain valuation range at that time, but demand remained weak, and the market had not yet shown a complete surrender signal.

The report indicated that Bitcoin's realized price was approximately $53,600 at that time. The realized price reflects the average cost of all BTC during their last on-chain transfer and is often regarded as an important valuation bottom line during bear markets.

CryptoQuant also combined indicators such as the MVRV Z-Score, viewing the $55,000 --- $60,000 range as a potential bottoming area that requires close observation. However, the institution emphasized that only a simultaneous improvement in spot demand, ETF fund flows, and stablecoin liquidity can further confirm the cycle bottom.

Citi: $53,000 in a pessimistic scenario

On July 1, Citi lowered its 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, primarily due to continuous outflows from spot ETFs, stagnation in U.S. crypto legislation progress, and weakened investor demand.

In a pessimistic scenario of economic recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi's estimated valuation for Bitcoin is approximately $53,000.

It is important to note that $53,000 is not Citi's explicit prediction for the cycle bottom but is based on assumptions of economic recession and continuous outflows of funds in a 12-month pessimistic scenario.

NYDIG: $53,700 is the cost line, extreme drawdown scenario at $37,900

In a report released on June 5, NYDIG stated that Bitcoin was not far from the historical bear market bottom area at that time, but the market evidence remained complex and insufficient to confirm the final bottom.

The report regarded the $53,700 level of 1x MVRV as an important cost line. This position indicates that Bitcoin's market price is close to the average on-chain cost of all network holders.

NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin retraced about 70% from the $126,000 high, the price would drop to around $37,900. However, this figure is derived from historical bear market drawdown scenarios and is not NYDIG's benchmark prediction.

Galaxy Research: Benchmark bottom at $40,000 --- $46,000

Galaxy Research provided a relatively clear and lower benchmark prediction among institutions. Its June report suggested that Bitcoin might form a cycle bottom in the $40,000 --- $46,000 range between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.

Galaxy established a Bitcoin bottom monitoring framework that includes 13 indicators, covering price drawdowns, holder losses, realized prices, miner pressure, long-term holder behavior, and market timing cycles. As of the report's publication, only 4 indicators had fully triggered, indicating that while Bitcoin has entered the latter half of the bear market, the market may not have fully cleared in terms of drawdown and duration.

Therefore, Galaxy listed the $40,000 --- $46,000 range as the benchmark bottom area, while also warning that if the macro environment or digital asset treasury companies further deteriorate, the market may face deeper tail risks.

Bitfinex: $53,400 is structural support, insufficient demand may lead to $40,000

In a report on June 29, Bitfinex Alpha regarded the realized price of approximately $53,400 as an important structural support for Bitcoin.

The report suggested that if ETF outflows slow and spot buying resumes, Bitcoin may complete its bottoming process in this area; if demand remains weak, the market may further test around $40,000 in the fourth quarter.

On July 1, after Bitcoin fell to about $57,800, it quickly rebounded. Bitfinex noted in a subsequent report that this movement might be a "false breakdown," but it was still insufficient to confirm that the final bottom had been formed.

22V Research: Breaking below $60,000 may point to a technical target of $40,000

22V Research technical strategist John Roque stated that Bitcoin is testing the first downward target of $60,000. If the price effectively breaks below this level, it may further test $40,000.

Thus, $40,000 is a conditional target after breaking a key technical level, rather than an unconditional prediction of the bottom by 22V Research.

Other institutions: $31,000 --- $40,000 mainly belongs to deep bear market scenarios

John Blank, chief stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, stated in February that if the current crypto winter lasts 12 to 18 months, Bitcoin may fall to around $40,000 in the next 6 to 8 months. He based his judgment on technical patterns, declining liquidity, and historical bear market cycles.

Stifel previously provided a potential target of around $38,000; Ned Davis Research believes that if the market enters a complete "crypto winter," Bitcoin may drop to around $31,000. These figures are more aligned with long-term bear market or deep pressure scenarios and do not represent a unified benchmark judgment from various institutions.

Strategy and Metaplanet: No clear bottom prediction, but long-term treasury strategies continue

Strategy and Metaplanet did not provide a clear bottom price for Bitcoin, but their treasury behaviors are important variables when institutions assess market demand.

Michael Saylor stated that there has been an outflow of about $4 billion from Bitcoin ETFs recently, reflecting a rotation of capital towards the AI sector rather than damage to Bitcoin itself; in his view, volatility can still create opportunities.

However, Strategy has begun to manage its balance sheet more flexibly. The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, cashing out approximately $216 million, primarily to pay preferred stock distributions. In the latest week, the company did not continue buying or selling BTC but raised about $467 million by selling common stock, increasing its dollar reserves to about $3 billion. As of the disclosure, Strategy held 843,775 BTC.

Metaplanet continues to maintain its long-term direction of expanding BTC reserves, aiming to hold 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The positions of both companies are more suitable for long-term treasury allocations rather than short-term bottom predictions.

KOL predictions: From $57,000 to below $30,000

In addition to institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry insiders have also provided different judgments on this round of bottoming.

Michael Terpin stated in April that Bitcoin has not yet reached its final bottom and expects the price may drop to around $57,000 before October. The low of $57,800 that appeared on July 1 is already close to his prediction, but whether it constitutes the final bottom remains to be confirmed.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated in June that $59,000 is the first support to watch; if it breaks, the next important area is between $48,000 --- $52,000. Based on this, Biteye summarized its bottom judgment to around $50,000.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo placed the potential bottom range at $46,000 --- $54,000 in March based on traditional on-chain models like CVDD. At that time, the CVDD bottom line was about $45,500 and would gradually rise over time. He also reminded that these models have only experienced four complete bear markets, and if the macro environment significantly deteriorates, actual prices may also drop deeper.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, expects Bitcoin may fall to between $42,000 --- $44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. He based his judgment on the ratio of Strategy's market value to Bitcoin's net asset value, combined with the four-year cycle and the characteristic of Bitcoin's volatility decreasing in rounds.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes Bitcoin may drop to around $40,000 in the next six months. He has hedged downward through options structures but still considers himself a long-term net bullish on Bitcoin. Therefore, $40,000 is part of his mid-term risk judgment rather than a long-term bearish target.

KOL WolfyXBT stated that he is still waiting for Bitcoin at $35,000, representing a more pessimistic judgment from some traders regarding this round of retracement.

According to Biteye's compilation, crypto investor Tony Ling expects Bitcoin may enter the $30,000 --- $40,000 range in the fourth quarter of 2026 and believes the market may also be affected by a long-term bear market in Nasdaq and the bursting of the AI bubble. Since the complete original post has not been found, this view should retain the source limitation of "according to Biteye's compilation."

Technical analyst Tony Severino maintains a long-term target of about $34,500, corresponding to a 72% retracement from Bitcoin's historical high. He expects the cycle low may appear around October.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone provided the most pessimistic judgment. He believes that if Bitcoin cannot regain $75,000, the price may still drop to $10,000 in extreme cases. It should be emphasized that this is McGlone's personal analytical view and not Bloomberg's official institutional prediction, nor does it belong to the current mainstream expectations in the market.

No unified consensus on $44,000 --- $46,000

Based on various opinions, it cannot be concluded that "institutions generally believe the bottom of this round is at $44,000 --- $46,000."

Standard Chartered believes that $59,000 may have already constituted the cycle bottom; CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi, and 10x Research's key areas mainly focus on $50,000 --- $55,000; Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place a deeper risk range at $40,000 --- $46,000. Predictions below $30,000 --- $40,000 are mostly based on assumptions of deep bear markets, macro recessions, or continued deterioration of technical structures.

The core of the prediction divergence lies not only in the different models used by various parties but also in their differing assumptions about the future macro environment. Whether spot ETFs can resume inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies like Strategy continue to sell BTC, the Federal Reserve's policies and the dollar's trends, and whether investor funds continue to shift towards AI assets may all impact the final bottom.

Therefore, the $40,000 --- $46,000 range can be viewed as a second layer of support that is currently receiving attention and as a benchmark bottom range for some institutions, but it cannot be described as a unified consensus that the market has formed.