Bitget UEX Daily Report｜S&P profit growth rate hits a 30-year high; Nvidia reveals SpaceX holdings become the sixth largest shareholder (August 17, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Strong earnings support the market, high interest rates pose valuation tests for AI capital expenditures

• The S&P 500's second-quarter earnings grew by 31% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Wall Street's previous expectation of 23%, marking the strongest growth rate since 1992 after excluding major recessions.
• Over 90% of constituent stocks have disclosed their earnings, with the first half of the year expected to yield the best performance since 2021.
• The market is reassessing the impact of rising long-term interest rates on high-valuation tech stocks, as AI projects have long payback periods, and higher rates will lower the present value of future cash flows.

Market Impact: The completion of earnings growth has led to a healthy valuation reset, with the price-to-earnings ratio dropping from about 26 times at the beginning of the year to below 22 times. The short-term narrative of an "earnings bull" dominates, but the sustainability of massive AI capital expenditures in a high-interest-rate environment remains a concern.

International Commodities

Unresolved risks in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices stabilize at high levels

• Brent crude oil remains steady below $89, with a cumulative increase of about 6% last week; WTI hovers around $83.
• Israel intensifies its strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked again, with US-Iran negotiations still at an impasse.
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that new restrictions on Iran may be introduced as early as this week; oil exports from Middle Eastern producers remain above market expectations.

Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums support oil prices' high-level fluctuations, and supply chain uncertainties prompt Indian refineries to lock in forward crude oil purchases early. Short-term oil price volatility remains highly dependent on US-Iran negotiations and developments in maritime navigation through the Strait.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump instructs to significantly reduce US-South Korea joint military exercises; AI data center demand spills over into power generation and storage

• Trump stated he has requested the Department of Defense to significantly reduce the scale of joint military exercises with South Korea, calling them "costly" and sending inappropriate signals to North Korea.
• The construction of AI data centers has become a new engine for US manufacturing, with Caterpillar, Cummins, Eaton, and Ford expanding their power generation, distribution, and storage layouts.
• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made a rare statement that AI needs to gain public trust through verifiable scientific breakthroughs (such as curing cancer) rather than grand narratives.

Market Impact: The reduction in military exercises signals a de-escalation towards North Korea; the spillover demand for data centers directly benefits power generation and storage equipment manufacturers, shifting the AI commercialization narrative from "investment" to "realization."

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,405/ounce, +0.75%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $65.8/ounce, +1.84%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $81.4/barrel, -0.15%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $84.1/barrel, -0.24%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 99.53, -0.10%

Driving Factors Analysis: The risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, keeping oil prices fluctuating at high levels, with Brent rising about 6% last week. Gold is caught between geopolitical risk aversion and the dollar's movements, showing relatively stable performance. The asset linkage logic is reflected as: geopolitical stalemate continues → oil prices supported → inflation concerns have not completely dissipated, while strong corporate earnings provide a buffer for risk assets. Short-term commodity volatility will still revolve around US-Iran negotiation progress and potential new restrictions on Iran this week.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,100, +0.06%
• ETH: Approximately $1,890, +0.54%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.22 trillion, -0.3%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours is $78 million, with long positions liquidated at $51 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is approximately $63,065, with a dense liquidation of long positions around $62,400--$62,700; if it falls below $62,500, it may trigger a chain liquidation of long positions. The area around $63,400--$64,000 has concentrated short liquidation pressure; if it breaks above $63,500, it may trigger a short squeeze and further push prices higher.

Driving Factors Analysis: Weekend trading was light, with the cryptocurrency market overall maintaining narrow fluctuations. BTC held above $62,000, while ETH remained relatively stable. The scale of leveraged liquidations has significantly decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment. On the macro level, strong earnings and high interest rates pose a valuation test for AI, creating a hedge; short-term cryptocurrencies may continue to consolidate within a range, with attention on the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and regulatory dynamics.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,732.41 points (-0.20%), slightly lower
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,785.76 points (-0.17%), retreated from highs
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,729.16 points (-0.28%), tech under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $225.16 (-0.06%)
• AAPL: $305.93 (+0.22%)
• MSFT: $495.40 (-0.30%)
• GOOGL: $345.90 (-0.13%)
• AMZN: $262.65 (-0.94%)
• META: $589.85 (-0.86%)
• TSLA: $342.27 (+0.68%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Last Friday, US stocks closed slightly lower, with all three major indices retreating. Most tech giants weakened, with Amazon and Meta showing relatively significant declines, while Tesla and Apple performed relatively well. The market is weighing strong earnings support against the valuation tests of AI capital expenditures in a high-interest-rate environment. The storage and optical communication sectors performed actively, with SanDisk rising over 35% last week, indicating continued capital rotation within the AI infrastructure chain.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept

• Representative stocks: SanDisk (+7.39%, cumulative increase of 35.38% for the week), Seagate (+5.65%), Western Digital (+4.41%), Micron (+2.3%)
• Driving Factors: Continued demand for high-bandwidth storage from AI data centers, coupled with expectations of price increases and performance realization driving capital inflow.

Optical Communication

• Representative stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (+15.53%), Lumentum (+5.19%), Corning (+4.7%)
• Driving Factors: High-speed optical module demand from data centers spills over, with 800G/1.6T-related stocks favored by capital.

Semiconductor Equipment

• Representative stocks: Applied Materials (-5.12%), Broadcom (-5.94%)
• Driving Factors: Concerns over performance or financing triggered profit-taking, with high-valuation stocks sensitive to discrepancies in expectations.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. S&P 500 Overall - Earnings Growth Hits 30-Year High

Event Overview: The S&P 500's second-quarter earnings grew by 31% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the previous expectation of 23%, marking the strongest growth rate since 1992 after excluding major recessions. Over 90% of constituent stocks have disclosed their earnings, with the first half of the year expected to yield the best performance since 2021. AI's accelerated penetration is compressing costs and raising profit margins, while the US economy shows unexpected resilience. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that earnings growth has completed a healthy valuation reset, with the price-to-earnings ratio dropping from about 26 times at the beginning of the year to below 22 times. "Earnings are doing the heavy lifting" rather than valuation expansion, with the proportion of small and mid-cap stocks exceeding expectations nearing post-pandemic highs, indicating that growth is spreading from tech giants to broader sectors. Investment Insight: The earnings bull narrative dominates in the short term, but continuous verification is needed to see if AI investments can truly translate into sustainable profits.

2. Nvidia (NVDA) - First Disclosure of SpaceX Holdings

Event Overview: Nvidia disclosed for the first time that it holds shares in SpaceX, becoming the latter's sixth-largest shareholder. The stock price fell slightly by about 0.06% last Friday. Market Interpretation: This move further strengthens Nvidia's position in the AI infrastructure ecosystem. SpaceX, as a satellite internet and potential AI computing power-related entity, is viewed by the market as an extension of Nvidia's strategic layout. The stock price is limited in its short-term impact by overall tech sentiment. Investment Insight: The long-term logic of AI computing power and ecosystem synergy is reinforced, with attention needed on future changes in holdings and SpaceX's business progress.

3. SanDisk (SNDK) - Cumulative Increase of Over 35%, Leading Storage Sector

Event Overview: SanDisk rose 7.39% last Friday, with a cumulative increase of 35.38% this week, becoming the leader in the storage sector. Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron also strengthened. Market Interpretation: Continued demand for high-bandwidth storage from AI data centers, combined with valuation recovery after previous adjustments, has led to a resurgence of capital inflow into the storage chain. The sector is highly sensitive to performance and supply-demand data, with notable short-term elasticity. Investment Insight: The long-term demand logic for AI storage remains, but caution is needed regarding profit-taking and guidance verification after significant increases.

4. Applied Materials (AMAT) - Fell Over 5%, Equipment Under Pressure

Event Overview: Applied Materials' stock price fell by 5.12%, despite decent performance, it failed to meet the market's overly high expectations. Market Interpretation: The high valuation of semiconductor equipment is extremely sensitive to discrepancies in expectations. The market is repricing between the AI capital expenditure return cycle and the interest rate environment, with equipment manufacturers being the first to feel the pressure. Investment Insight: Attention should be paid to the visibility of orders for wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging, as short-term volatility may continue.

5. Caterpillar (CAT) and Other Power Generation & Storage - Benefiting from Data Center Demand Spillover

Event Overview: The construction of AI data centers has driven demand for power generation and storage equipment, with Caterpillar planning to invest $725 million to expand generator capacity, with orders already booked until 2030; Cummins, Eaton, and Ford are also increasing their related layouts. Market Interpretation: AI infrastructure is spilling over from chips and optical communication to power and storage segments, providing traditional industrial and energy equipment manufacturers with new growth curves. The market is beginning to price in the "AI + power" synergy logic. Investment Insight: The power bottleneck for data centers has become a new mainline, with improved visibility of long-term demand for related equipment, but caution is needed regarding the risk of supply surplus due to technological iterations.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The S&P 500's second-quarter earnings grew by 31% year-on-year, marking the strongest growth rate in 30 years after excluding major recessions, driven by AI penetration and economic resilience.
2. Nvidia disclosed its holdings in SpaceX for the first time, becoming the sixth-largest shareholder, strengthening its AI ecosystem layout.
3. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stated that AI needs to gain public trust through verifiable scientific breakthroughs (such as curing cancer) rather than remaining in grand narratives.
4. Swiss banking giant UBS increased its exposure to bullish options on BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) from 80,000 contracts in the first quarter to 1.95 million contracts in the second quarter, an increase of over 24 times; direct holdings of IBIT shares increased by about 12% to 407,890 shares, valued at approximately $13.6 million; bearish options exposure decreased by about 53% to 143,300 contracts.
5. Data: Tokens such as ZRO and KAITO will see significant unlocking next week, with ZRO unlocking valued at approximately $19.9 million.
6. El Salvador has added a total of 8 Bitcoins over the past 7 days and 31 Bitcoins over the past 30 days, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 7,745.37 Bitcoins, valued at $448 million.
7. Trader Killa tweeted that Bitcoin has returned above the Meyer multiple of 0.8, after previously dipping below that level. BTC also briefly fell below this level in 2022, before stabilizing again. The key confirmation signal is a price breakout above the 200-day moving average, marking the start of a bull market. Currently, BTC's 200-day moving average is approximately $69,500. Next, we just need to wait for Bitcoin's price to break above and stabilize above the 200-day moving average; once this happens, the market will officially enter a bull market.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|----------------|-------| | This Week | US | Relevant economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Focus | Global | Developments related to the Strait of Hormuz and Iran | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Earnings Verification: Attention to subsequent tech and industrial earnings reports for further verification of AI capital expenditure returns.
• Geopolitical Developments: US-Iran negotiations and potential new restrictions remain core variables for oil prices.
• Federal Reserve Dynamics: Attention to officials' latest statements on inflation and interest rate paths.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that the S&P 500's earnings growth hitting a 30-year high shows that AI penetration and economic resilience are translating into actual profits, with the "earnings bull" narrative dominating in the short term. AI infrastructure investments are beginning to spill over from chips to power generation, storage, and other segments, providing new growth curves for related equipment manufacturers. Nvidia's disclosure of its SpaceX holdings further strengthens its ecosystem layout. However, the valuation test of massive AI capital expenditures in a high-interest-rate environment remains, and the market needs to continuously verify investment returns. The overall consensus is that earnings realization has become the current mainline, with geopolitics and interest rates remaining major disruptive factors.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.