GLM-5.3 listed on Amazon, Zhipu surged 14% in two days

Introduction: A week ago, Zhiyu was still trapped in the pressure of dilution from share placements, with a drop of over 46% in September alone; a week later, its model appeared simultaneously on Amazon's cloud shelves, in the default list of overseas programming tools, and on a "buy" list from an international investment bank. The quality of this rebound and how far it can go depends on three things that are currently happening.

1. What Happened: The Overseas "Triple Strike" of GLM-5.3

On October 6, Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced the integration of Zhiyu's GLM-5.3 into its model service platform, Amazon Bedrock, with AWS sharing revenue based on model usage. According to public reports, in addition to AWS, Zhiyu has recently established similar revenue-sharing models with several overseas cloud providers.

This is not Zhiyu's first overseas deployment, but the third in the past week:

• The AI programming tool Cursor has launched GLM-5.3 and GLM-5.3-Flash, revealing that GLM-5.3 achieved the highest score (42.6%) in its proprietary programming evaluation, CursorBench 4.0—this evaluation task comes from real Cursor usage scenarios, covering multi-file processing, code editing, refactoring, and problem investigation;

• The German sovereign AI company Aleph Alpha, when releasing its new model Kolibri, showed in its technical report that GLM-5.2 and GLM-5.3 were used for supervised fine-tuning data production;

• Cybersecurity certification: The evaluation results from the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) under CAISI were cited in an overseas AI security research report released on September 29, listing GLM-5.3 as the strongest open-weight model in terms of cybersecurity capabilities at the time of evaluation.

From being used to being certified by third parties, GLM-5.3 is transitioning from a "Chinese open-source model" to one of the more widely used options in the global developer toolchain.

2. Why International Investment Banks Upgraded Ratings at This Time

Around October 5, a leading international investment bank upgraded Zhiyu's rating from "neutral" to "buy," giving a 12-month target price of HKD 1,560 based on DCF (neutral interpretation). The three reasons provided by the bank are worth breaking down:

1. The commercialization path has become clearer. The bank raised Zhiyu's ARR forecast for the end of 2026 from USD 2.7 billion to USD 3.2 billion, based on the growth in Token demand and the company's new commercial cooperation terms with major cloud providers in China and globally starting in October; it also raised the revenue forecast for 2026 to 2028 by 3% to 12%.

2. Expansion of computing power and improvement of the balance sheet. Zhiyu completed approximately USD 4 billion and USD 5 billion in refinancing in July and September, respectively, and the supply of computing power may no longer be the main constraint on revenue growth in the short term.

3. Improvement in cost efficiency. Management disclosed in the September conference call that, thanks to the cost-effectiveness of GLM-5.3, the theoretical gross margin for inference could reach as high as 80%.

It is noteworthy that while the rating was upgraded, the target price was slightly adjusted down from HKD 1,610 to HKD 1,560, and the net loss forecast also saw some increases and decreases (adjusted to RMB 5.1 billion, 5 billion, and 500 million for 2026 to 2028). This seems more like a re-evaluation by the market of the clarity of the commercialization path rather than a simple "earnings upgrade"—the bank is optimistic about the clarity of the commercialization path, not about raising overall profit expectations.

3. Revenue Sharing with Cloud Providers: Open-source Models Transitioning from Cost Items to Revenue Items

The integration of GLM-5.3 into Amazon Bedrock may have significance beyond just a single news item when viewed in the context of Zhiyu's commercialization path.

Previously, the mainstream concern in the market regarding Zhiyu was that open-source equates to free, and regardless of the model's capabilities, its monetization potential was in doubt. The revenue-sharing model with cloud providers could change this equation—GLM series open-source models are no longer just ecological investments but products on cloud platform shelves; third-party cloud platforms have shifted from potential substitutes to distribution channels. Domestically, Zhiyu has signed similar revenue-sharing agreements with leading cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud's Bailian platform, and Huawei Cloud has listed GLM-5.3 and reached intentions for similar cooperation.

Some market views reference the paths of leading overseas AI companies: the combination of models and cloud platforms has validated the capability for large-scale distribution, with related companies seeing significant growth in usage-based revenue over more than a year. Zhiyu's management stated in the conference call that after starting revenue sharing with cloud service providers, the company can reduce some of the computing pressure on its business and accelerate global expansion—partners provide inference infrastructure and sales channels, while the company earns revenue from usage sharing, decoupling related revenue growth from its own capital expenditures on computing power. However, whether this path can be replicated and to what extent remains uncertain.

4. A Set of Numbers That Need to Be Viewed Together: Increased Southbound Investment, Significant Stock Price Drop

In September, Zhiyu received a net purchase of HKD 7.884 billion from southbound funds, ranking among the top in net purchases of Hong Kong Stock Connect active stocks; the total trading volume of Hong Kong Stock Connect in September reached HKD 93.376 billion, the highest among all Hong Kong Stock Connect targets; the latest shareholding amount is 37.2901 million shares, an increase of over 460% compared to early July.

However, in the same month, Zhiyu's stock price fell by a cumulative 46.36%.

The continuous increase in southbound funds and the decline in stock price—one important background for this divergence is the announcement of approximately USD 5 billion in financing on September 13: including USD 2 billion in share placements and USD 3 billion in zero-interest convertible bonds, with the placement price of HKD 714 representing a discount of about 9.96% from the previous closing price; if the convertible bonds are fully converted, it will add about 5.3% to the share capital. The market generally views share dilution from placements as one of the important factors for the decline in September, while southbound funds choosing to continue buying during the decline may reflect that some domestic funds' pricing anchors are not on short-term stock prices but on the realization rhythm of the commercialization path—this interpretation still carries uncertainty. Whether the decline in September has partially reflected the impact of share dilution remains to be observed; the overseas deployment of GLM-5.3 in October and the opening of revenue-sharing channels with cloud providers provide a new observation anchor.

5. From "Selling Models" to "Collecting Rent"

Some market views summarize the core logic of Zhiyu's recent rise in one sentence: the business model is shifting from "selling models" to "collecting rent."

"Selling models" involves project-based, privatized deployment, one-time revenue, high gross margins but clear scale limits; "collecting rent" involves revenue sharing based on usage from cloud platforms, continuous Token billing revenue, relatively lower gross margins but much higher scale ceilings. According to the company's mid-term report, Zhiyu's revenue from open platforms and APIs in the first half of 2026 was RMB 825 million, a year-on-year increase of about 27 times, accounting for 86.5% of total revenue; the gross margin of the API business improved from -0.4% to 24.6%. The overall gross margin decreased from 50% to 26.4%, which may not necessarily indicate deterioration but rather reflect structural changes during the transition of revenue structure from high-margin privatized deployments to scaled APIs—however, the trend in profit quality still needs to be continuously monitored. If the revenue-sharing model works well on overseas cloud platforms, the slope of this revenue curve may become significantly steeper, which awaits data validation.

The bank ranked Zhiyu's ARR operating rate first among its Chinese peers (neutral interpretation)—based on this judgment, Zhiyu may be one of the leading Chinese large model companies at the forefront of combining "open-source ecology" with "commercial monetization," and the competitive landscape is still changing.

6. Focus on Three Signals

1. The actual confirmation rhythm of revenue from cloud provider sharing. Management stated that revenue sharing with cloud service providers will be confirmed starting in October. If the revenue data for October and November can validate the scale potential of the sharing model, it may become an important observation point for the market to reprice its valuation logic.

2. The digestion progress of share dilution. Whether the approximately 46% drop in September has sufficiently priced in the dilution effects of the placements and convertible bonds depends on the subsequent rhythm of southbound fund inflows and changes in institutional holdings. The combination of increased southbound investment and low stock prices has historically shown similar situations, but past performance does not guarantee future results, and this combination itself does not constitute a reliable pattern.

3. The actual usage volume of GLM-5.3 in overseas developer communities. The integration of Cursor and Amazon Bedrock is "shelf placement," but the real test is "the usage volume after placement." If GLM-5.3 forms stable usage habits in overseas programming scenarios, the growth rhythm of overseas revenue-sharing curves may outpace that of domestic ones.

Data Explanation:

• Market: On October 5, closed at HKD 665 (+6.15%); on October 6, reached a peak of HKD 720 during trading (+8.3%), as of 10:08 reported at HKD 703 (+5.7%), with a total market value of approximately HKD 313.4 billion; MINIMAX-WP, Alibaba-W, Baidu Group-SW increased around 10:08 during trading. Public market data.

• Rating: A leading international investment bank upgraded the rating from "neutral" to "buy," target price HKD 1,560 (adjusted from HKD 1,610), ARR forecast raised from USD 2.7 billion to USD 3.2 billion, revenue forecast for 2026-28 increased by 3% to 12%. October 2-5, 2026—media cited research reports.

• Overseas Deployment: Cursor launched GLM-5.3 (CursorBench 4.0 score 42.6%); Amazon Bedrock integration and revenue sharing based on usage; Aleph Alpha Kolibri technical report; overseas AI security research report citing NIST/CAISI evaluation. September-October 2026—company announcements and public reports.

• Financials: Revenue for the first half of 2026 was RMB 954 million (+399.7%), API revenue was RMB 825 million (accounting for 86.5%), adjusted net loss was RMB 1.964 billion; ARR approximately USD 1.8 billion, year-end guidance USD 3 billion. August-September 2026—company mid-term report and conference call.

• Southbound Funds: Net purchase of HKD 7.884 billion in September, total trading volume of HKD 93.376 billion ranked first, shareholding increased by over 460% compared to early July. October 2026, public data (Wind caliber).

• Financing: Approximately USD 5 billion (USD 2 billion placement + USD 3 billion zero-interest convertible bonds), placement price HKD 714, discount of about 9.96%. September 13, 2026—company announcement.

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