SuperEx Report: October Asset Allocation Guide

Data Range: As of the close of U.S. stocks on October 9, 2026. The allocation ratios in this document are for scenario illustration only and do not constitute personalized investment advice.

Entering October, the market's focus has shifted from "chasing gains" to "balancing returns and risks," with a noticeable asset differentiation in global markets.

U.S. stocks continue to approach historical highs. From September 30 to October 9, the S&P 500 rose from 7,651.54 points to 7,811.54 points, an increase of approximately 2.09%; the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 1.88%; the Dow Jones rose approximately 1.47%. ++AP News September 30 data++, ++AP News October 9 data++

However, the cryptocurrency market did not strengthen in tandem. According to CoinMarketCap historical snapshots, from September 30 to October 9:

l BTC: fell from $83,553.85 to $82,546.32, a decrease of approximately 1.21%;

l ETH: fell from $2,683.68 to $2,485.54, a decrease of approximately 7.38%;

l BNB: decreased approximately 3.40%;

l SOL: decreased approximately 7.50%.

As of October 9, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was approximately $2.8 trillion, with BTC's market share at approximately 59.4% and ETH's market share at approximately 10.9%. This indicates that funds are still more concentrated in BTC rather than flowing broadly into high-volatility assets. ++CoinMarketCap September 30 snapshot++, ++October 9 snapshot++

For ordinary users, October is not suitable for simply replicating September's allocation. The rise in U.S. stocks, the weakness in crypto assets, and the sustained high long-term interest rates indicate that market risk appetite has not spread uniformly across all assets.

October Allocation Environment: High Yields and High Valuations Coexist

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The cooling job market reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates immediately, but it does not completely eliminate inflation risks. ++U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics++

Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond reached 5.24% on October 9, close to its highest level since 2002. The settlement price of Brent crude oil that day was $104.72 per barrel. High oil prices may continue to transmit to transportation, production, and consumer prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy choices. ++U.S. Treasury++, ++AP News++

This constitutes the main contradiction in October's asset allocation:

· Cooling employment is favorable for pausing interest rate hike expectations;

· Oil prices and inflation risks remain high;

· U.S. stocks are close to historical highs, making valuations more sensitive to interest rate changes;

· Outflows from crypto ETFs indicate temporarily weakened institutional demand;

· High Treasury yields increase the competitiveness of cash and fixed-income assets.

Therefore, the allocation goal for October should not merely pursue the highest returns but should enhance the portfolio's adaptability under different market scenarios.

Core Logic of Asset Allocation: Defensive Layer, Core Layer, and Offensive Layer

The October portfolio can still be divided into three layers, but the weights of each layer need to be readjusted.

· Defensive Asset Layer: stablecoins, cash, short-duration fixed-income products, gold, and conservative wealth management;

· Core Asset Layer: BTC, ETH, broad-based stock indices, and leading companies with strong profitability;

· Offensive Asset Layer: high liquidity altcoins, industry-themed stocks, and strictly limited risk short-term strategies.

Compared to September, October is more suitable for appropriately increasing the defensive layer and reducing low liquidity assets and undisciplined leveraged positions.

It is important to note that stablecoins are not equivalent to completely risk-free assets, and wealth management products are not the same as bank deposits. Users still need to verify the issuer, platform rules, redemption conditions, sources of returns, and associated risks.

Conservative Users: Increase Defensive Proportion, Avoid High Concentration Risks

If your primary goal is to protect principal or you cannot tolerate significant monthly drawdowns, you can refer to the following allocation for October:

· Stablecoins and cash assets: 35%

· Conservative wealth management or short-duration fixed income: 20%

· BTC + ETH: 25%

· Gold: 10%

· Broad-based stocks or high-quality stocks: 10%

The internal allocation of BTC and ETH can continue to lean towards BTC, for example, BTC accounting for 70%-80% of the crypto core position. The reason is not that BTC will not decline, but that BTC's current price performance and market share are stronger than ETH and most altcoins.

Idle stablecoins can be considered for products like SuperEx Earn after fully understanding the product terms, but liquidity should be reserved for reallocation after events such as CPI and FOMC, and it is not advisable to lock in all funds.

Balanced Users: Retain Core Positions, But Do Not Chase All Hotspots

Balanced users wish to participate in potential gains while controlling portfolio drawdowns and can refer to:

· BTC + ETH: 35%

· U.S. stocks or global stock assets: 25%

· Stablecoins and cash assets: 20%

· Gold or defensive assets: 10%

· High liquidity altcoins: 10%

The focus of this type of portfolio is not to hold a large number of coins simultaneously but to assign clear responsibilities to each part:

· BTC and ETH are responsible for core exposure to the crypto market;

· Stock assets provide exposure to corporate profits and long-term growth;

· Stablecoins are responsible for liquidity and replenishment capacity;

· Gold is used to hedge against geopolitical, inflation, and fiscal risks;

· Altcoin assets are responsible for providing limited yield elasticity.

If BTC remains stable, but ETH, SOL, and most altcoins continue to underperform BTC, one should not mechanically increase altcoin positions just because prices have already fallen. Relatively weak assets are only more suitable for increased allocation after improvements in capital flow, trading volume, and market structure.

Aggressive Users: Offensive Positions Must Adhere to Risk Budgets

Users who can tolerate higher volatility can refer to the following allocation:

· BTC + ETH: 35%

· High liquidity altcoins: 20%

· Stocks and industry-themed assets: 20%

· Stablecoins and cash assets: 15%

· Short-term or contract strategy funds: No more than 10%

The 10% here is specifically allocated as risk capital and does not represent an unlimited increase in contract nominal positions based on this foundation. Even if SuperEx supports up to 150 times leverage, the maximum available leverage does not equate to suitable leverage for use.

The CPI on October 14, PPI on the 15th, the FOMC meeting from the 27th to the 28th, and the GDP and PCE data on the 29th may form multiple concentrated volatility windows. Aggressive users should lower positions before events rather than interpreting high volatility as an opportunity to increase leverage. ++BLS October schedule++, ++Federal Reserve schedule++, ++BEA release schedule++

October Key Asset Observations

BTC: Still the Core Anchor of Crypto Allocation

From October 1 to 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of approximately $386.3 million, but BTC only fell about 1.21% during the same period. This indicates that other demand in the market temporarily absorbed some of the ETF selling pressure.

This does not mean that outflows can be ignored in the long term. If ETF outflows continue and are accompanied by a weakening price structure, BTC's defensive capacity may also decline. It is suitable to adopt a phased allocation rather than chasing gains or losses based on daily price fluctuations. ++Farside Investors++

ETH: Lower Valuation Does Not Mean Lower Risk

During the same period, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of approximately $635 million, with ETH's price falling about 7.38% compared to the end of September, significantly weaker than BTC.

ETH still holds an important ecological position, but data from early October indicates that institutional funds and price strength have not yet formed a positive resonance. Before increasing ETH allocation, one should observe whether ETF outflows narrow and whether the ETH/BTC relative trend stabilizes. ++Farside Investors++

U.S. Stocks: Trend Remains Strong, But Valuation Is Increasingly Dependent on Earnings Realization

U.S. stocks continued to rise at the beginning of the month, but the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond reached 5.24%, indicating that corporate future cash flows need to be valued at a higher discount rate.

As we enter the third-quarter earnings season in mid to late October, attention should focus on actual corporate earnings, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and future guidance, rather than chasing prices solely based on AI or technology concepts.

Bonds and Cash: Yields Increase, But Duration Risk Remains

Higher Treasury yields have increased the allocation value of fixed-income assets, but long-duration bonds may continue to fluctuate due to inflation and fiscal risks.

For ordinary users, the main value of cash, stablecoins, and short-duration assets is not just yield, but reducing portfolio volatility and retaining the ability for reallocation after market corrections.

Gold: Can Hedge, But Should Not Be Treated as a One-Way Up Asset

Data from the World Gold Council shows that gold closed at approximately $4,176 per ounce in September, down 8.5% for the month; as of early October, it remained roughly above $4,100. While gold prices fell in September, global gold ETFs still recorded a net inflow of approximately $10 billion, indicating a divergence between physical and ETF demand, futures positions, and prices. ++World Gold Council++

Gold is suitable as a portfolio hedging tool, but it may also decline in a high-yield and strong dollar environment, so it is better to maintain a moderate proportion rather than chasing highs after geopolitical news.

SuperEx October Allocation Perspective

SuperEx believes that the keyword for October is not a full offensive nor a complete exit, but rather improving portfolio quality.

More pragmatic principles include:

· Core crypto positions continue to focus on BTC and ETH, with a slight bias towards relatively strong BTC;

· Maintain a sufficient proportion of stablecoins, cash, and short-duration assets;

• Stock allocation emphasizes profitability and cash flow, not blindly chasing high valuation themes;

• Only select counterfeit assets with relatively sufficient liquidity and market depth;

• Gold serves as a hedge, not a short-term speculation tool;

• Reduce leverage before the release of macro data, and adjust based on price and capital flow after the data is released.

If CPI and PPI cool down, government bond yields decline, and ETF outflows narrow, risk assets may regain broader funding support. Conversely, if oil prices continue to drive inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, and long-term yields continue to rise, the defensive layer ratio should be increased.

Final Thoughts

Asset allocation is not about finding a ratio that won't make mistakes for an entire month, but rather ensuring that the portfolio can survive even when judgments are wrong.

In October, the market simultaneously faces high U.S. stock prices, differentiation in crypto assets, high government bond yields, rising oil prices, and policy uncertainty. For most users, a more reasonable approach is to maintain core positions, increase defensive assets, reduce low liquidity exposure, and adjust in batches around key events.

Stablecoins are not about "missing out on opportunities," and reducing leverage is not about "giving up returns." In months with high uncertainty, retaining optionality is an asset in itself.

Disclaimer

This article is for market information sharing and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, legal, tax, or financial advice. The allocation ratios mentioned are general scenario examples and do not consider any user's income, liabilities, investment horizon, or risk tolerance. Digital assets, stocks, bonds, gold, stablecoins, and financial products all carry varying degrees of principal loss, liquidity, market, custody, and issuer risks. Users should conduct independent research and verify the latest data before making decisions, fully understanding the product rules. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

About SuperEx

As the world's first Web3-driven cryptocurrency exchange, SuperEx is committed to promoting the construction of the Web3 ecosystem and has launched products and services such as SuperEx DAO, SuperEx Web3 Wallet, Super Start, SuperEx P2P, SuperEx Stock Markets, SuperEx Copy Trading, SuperEx Earn, and SuperEx DAO Academy.

Currently, SuperEx serves over 10 million users, with a community covering 166 countries and regions worldwide, and supports spot and contract trading of over 1,000 crypto assets.