risk

Goldman Sachs continues to predict that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and believes there are net upside risks. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if demand from central banks remains strong and ETF investor inflows recover, gold prices could far exceed the forecast. Additionally, if expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. regulators released a statement on Friday announcing a proposed guideline on third-party risk management for banks. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the National Credit Union Administration stated that the proposal aims to help banks and credit unions "better align and customize their third-party risk management practices to match the risks of various third-party relationships."Federal Reserve staff indicated in a memorandum that as this plan is introduced, banks are increasingly outsourcing certain functions and relying on third-party relationships to improve efficiency and reduce costs. The plan will be open for public comment, is non-binding, and aims to focus institutions' regulatory attention on a principles-based approach to such risks. Federal Reserve Governor Barr opposed the proposal, citing concerns about the standards for "significant financial risks."

Chevron's CEO stated that the early buffer in the oil market has disappeared, and the price risks brought by the Iran war are now higher.

SaxoBank pointed out that the supply risks in the Middle East continue to escalate, the US PPI is supported by a surge in diesel prices, European and American bond yields have risen significantly, and gold, copper, and the stock market are all under pressure.The market is concerned whether the energy shock will rewrite the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations.

The blockchain project Quantus announced the launch of its PoW mainnet using post-quantum cryptography, which incorporates the ML-DSA-65 and ML-DSA-87 digital signature mechanisms. The total supply limit of the native token QTC is 21 million, and PoW mining has been open since the launch.

The Danish central bank, Danmarks Nationalbank, stated that the current usage rate of stablecoins in Denmark is very low and does not pose an immediate threat to domestic financial stability. However, the rapid growth of dollar-pegged stablecoins globally may expose Denmark to indirect financial market volatility and liquidity risks. Currently, there are no stablecoins denominated in Danish kroner in circulation, and the use of stablecoins by consumers and businesses is quite limited.As commercial banks, financial institutions, and payment applications connect to stablecoin infrastructure, the scale of related usage may change. USDT and USDC dominate the global stablecoin market, and turmoil in the overseas stablecoin market could transmit to Denmark through global liquidity channels and the U.S. financial system. Danmarks Nationalbank is collaborating with the European Central Bank (ECB) to ensure that central bank money continues to serve as the primary settlement asset for interbank transactions.

This week's upcoming release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has become a key point for judging whether inflation is re-accelerating. Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang pointed out in a live broadcast that, against the backdrop of 162,000 new non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the demand side in the U.S. remains resilient. If core PPI and service prices continue to stay high, companies may pass costs onto consumers, driving up subsequent CPI and prompting the market to reprice the Federal Reserve's policy path of "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period."Lewis Huang further analyzed two scenarios: if PPI exceeds expectations but CPI remains moderate, it indicates that companies lack pricing power and can only compress profit margins to absorb costs; if both PPI and CPI exceed expectations, it signifies that the inflation transmission chain has reopened, potentially serving as a catalyst for a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. From a trading perspective, if PPI exceeds expectations and drives the dollar up, gold and high-valuation tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if PPI falls short of expectations and the dollar retreats, it would support a rebound in gold and growth stock indices.Lewis Huang reminded traders that they should not only focus on the first wave of market movements following the data release but also observe whether PPI is confirmed by CPI, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields. If the rise in PPI is merely a short-term cost shock, the market impact will be limited; if costs continue to be transmitted to consumers, the market narrative may shift back to "recurring inflation and the continuation of high interest rates."

Garrett Jin stated in the latest weekly report that Bitcoin failed to break through the key resistance of $82,500 after reaching a high of $82,300 last week, and has returned to the consolidation range, indicating that the current consolidation is not yet over, and the market may not have completed half of the entire adjustment process.In the short term, spot demand has weakened, and supply remains heavy above $82,000. The risk-reward ratio for chasing prices higher or shorting on a pullback within the current range is poor.

The cryptocurrency risk data analysis company Bitrace released the "2026 Annual Cryptocurrency Crime Report," which shows that in 2025, the illegal funds received by blockchain addresses marked as high risk across the network reached $50.21 billion. Organized crime networks in Southeast Asia were severely impacted, as the United States and the United Kingdom jointly sanctioned the Cambodian Prince Group, seizing or freezing billions of dollars in cryptocurrency assets, and Huibang Group was forced to temporarily halt its Huibang Payment operations.The report states that in 2025, high-risk addresses for online gambling received $14.53 billion, down from $21.78 billion in 2024; it is predicted that platform funds transferred or bet will reach $6.64 billion. High-risk addresses for money laundering received a total of $6.98 billion, with USDT-related money laundering amounting to $5.7 billion on Ethereum and $60.2 billion on Tron. High-risk addresses for black and gray market transactions received $186.9 billion, almost all occurring on the Tron network, with Huibang Payment receiving $52.4 billion in USDT that year.In 2025, the number of addresses frozen reached 4,059, exceeding the total of 3,199 from the past four years, with 3,406 on Tron. Tether froze over $1.1 billion in USDT, and Circle froze over $23 million in USDC. From 2021 to 2025, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Israel, and France collectively imposed sanctions on at least 1,683 blockchain addresses.

According to Decrypt, Google has fixed a high-severity vulnerability CVE-2026-85046 in the Chrome browser that was exploited by hackers. This vulnerability exists in the V8 engine, which is used to run JavaScript and WebAssembly.Google confirmed that the vulnerability has been exploited in the wild but did not disclose the identity of the attackers, the targets, or the specific method of exploitation. The patch has been included in Chrome versions 152.7977.82/83 and will be pushed out in the coming days or weeks.The vulnerability was reported by security researcher Salvatore Gulizia on August 4, and Google awarded him a $1,000 bug bounty. This update includes a total of 12 security fixes, of which 9 are high-severity and 2 are medium-severity. Google has not yet linked this vulnerability to cryptocurrency asset theft incidents, but browser wallets, exchange accounts, and trading extensions have previously been targeted in other ways.

Gate Research Institute released the August 2026 cryptocurrency and TradFi quantitative report. BTC and ETH rose approximately 25.1% and 32.6% respectively during the month. Gate contract data shows that the open interest amount for BTC increased from about $4.02 billion to $4.38 billion, while ETH rose from about $2.46 billion to $2.75 billion, with increases of approximately 9% and 12.1% respectively.The funding rates for both remained moderately positive most of the time, with long positions dominating the number of accounts, but the active trading long-short ratio was below 1. The TradFi market also rose in sync, with NAS100 increasing about 4.2% during the month, outperforming US500 and US30, while large tech stocks showed a divergence in trends.The report compared four models: moving average trends, trend momentum, Donchian breakout, and RSI mean reversion. Backtesting results showed that the 100-day moving average and 20-day price momentum strategies achieved positive cumulative returns on BTC, ETH, US500, and NAS100, with a median Sharpe ratio of 0.64 and a median maximum drawdown of 8.71%. The report includes Gate TradFi's US500 and NAS100 in cross-asset observations and evaluates market heat by combining Gate contract long-short ratios, funding rates, and open interest data. The execution over the next one to three months will focus on trend confirmation, volatility rebalancing, leverage limits, and cooling off abnormal liquidations.

On September 2, Curve DAO approved proposal 1492, appointing yRisk as the risk provider for crvUSD and Llamalend, concluding the selection process that began in July. The proposal passed with 621 million veCRV votes in favor, with only 5.33 votes against, and was executed 87 minutes after the voting ended. yRisk will receive a one-year revocable grant, including a principal of 125,000 frxUSD (held in sfrxUSD) and 568,000 CRV, while their previously requested annual funding amount was $250,000.yRisk consists of two members, who claim to be the main developers of Resupply, as well as core developers for Yearn and Resupply. Resupply is a stablecoin and lending protocol built on crvUSD and CurveLend, which lost $9.6 million in June 2025 due to a donation attack vulnerability, although this incident was not mentioned in the proposal. The reviewer, Swiss Stake, confirmed yRisk's experience with Curve but expressed concerns about their limited two-member team and the workload required to cover multiple Llamalend market monitoring scopes.LlamaRisk, which previously held the position, announced the early termination of its cooperation with Curve on May 29, ceased related work on June 30, and returned approximately 270,000 crvUSD of unallocated funds to the treasury. Curve founder Michael Egorov initiated a proposal solicitation on July 7.

OKX founder Star posted a reminder that depositing from high-risk addresses to OKX may trigger stricter anti-money laundering and risk reviews. Depending on the specific situation, the review may last for 15 days or even longer, and some account functions and funds may be restricted; for accounts confirmed to be involved in high-risk or illegal activities, OKX may terminate services.

According to Bitcoin.com, Fidelity Digital Assets has released an analysis report indicating that future quantum computers may derive Bitcoin private keys from exposed public keys, threatening asset security. Existing Bitcoin transactions rely on elliptic curve digital signature algorithms or Schnorr signatures, and sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor's algorithm could break this cryptographic assumption.The report evaluates the SHRINCS post-quantum signature scheme as a potential upgrade path—providing a compact 48-byte public key, with state signature sizes ranging from 548 to 4,619 bytes, and a 5,777-byte stateless fallback path to address state loss. However, quantum-resistant signatures will significantly increase transaction data size, consume more block space, reduce network throughput, and drive up transaction fees during congestion. Implementing such upgrades will require new consensus rules (possibly through a soft fork) and broad support from wallets, miners, exchanges, and custodians. In July of this year, Fidelity co-funded a $15 million Bitcoin security program with eight other institutions, covering anti-quantum research.

According to Euronews, Taiwan's stock market surged by 59% in the first half of this year due to a spike in demand for AI hardware, with chip giants like TSMC being the main drivers. Driven by high return expectations, a large number of ordinary people borrowed money to enter the market through bank loans and mortgage properties, with the scale of margin trading increasing by nearly 20% compared to the first half of the year.Some investors have made substantial profits, such as Mr. Chen, a real estate practitioner, who borrowed 5 million New Taiwan dollars and quadrupled his assets within six months; however, others have suffered significant losses, with one anonymous user claiming to have invested over 10 million New Taiwan dollars (including 6 million in mortgage loans) and lost nearly half, even experiencing mental health issues.Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission stated that the overall credit risk remains within a controllable range and has released videos on social media to warn young investors about the risks of loan defaults.

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.

The Solana core client development team Anza announced that it is gradually removing floating-point operations from the Solana core protocol. The first layer, SIMD-0391, was activated in epoch 1026 of the mainnet Beta, replacing floating-point operations in the Stake Program and validator client’s warm-up and cool-down logic with fixed-point operations.The second layer, SIMD-0607, has been proposed and is under review, targeting the runtime itself to remove floating-point operations in the inflation rewards and rent calculation paths. Anza stated that floating-point operations can produce different rounding results on different hardware, validator clients, and compilers, which may lead to consensus divergence and network activity risks. These two improvements eliminate that risk by standardizing fixed-point operations. Further work will continue to address floating-point operations in other paths.

In response to the recent warning from Pablo Hernández de Cos, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), regarding the risks that stablecoins may pose to financial stability, Tether CEO Paolo Ardonio took to the X platform to criticize the BIS.He stated that there is a fundamental difference in the underlying risk structure between stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits. Stablecoins are essentially tools that are 100% backed by high-liquidity assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds); in contrast, tokenized bank deposits still belong to the deposit system of banks, which typically use a fractional reserve model, with only a portion backed by high-liquidity assets.

According to South Korean media Daum, an analysis of the five major Korean won exchanges Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX, as well as the public API of CoinGecko, found that after excluding duplicate assets, the five exchanges collectively support approximately 606 types of crypto assets. Among them, 164 types (27.1%) are only available for trading on one exchange, and another 324 types (53.5%) are traded on two or fewer exchanges.Among the assets supported by a single exchange, Coinone has the most, with 55 types; Bithumb has 54 types, GOPAX has 25 types, Upbit has 16 types, and Korbit has 14 types. In terms of liquidity, the median trading volume of these 164 assets in nearly 24 hours is only about 1.37 million won, with 79 types having a trading volume of less than 1 million won, and 38 types even having zero transactions.The analysis suggests that listing on a single exchange does not inherently mean that the asset carries risk. If the relevant assets are actively traded on overseas exchanges or support smooth withdrawals, investors still have other exit channels. However, for assets with low overseas trading volume and restricted deposit and withdrawal networks, once support is terminated, investors may face difficulties in both selling and transferring.