ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that some moderately sized tariff policies will not be passed on to consumers, but tariffs may lead to a one-time price increase, and the Federal Reserve can take a tolerant attitude towards this. The prospect of interest rate cuts depends on the slowdown of inflation and whether tariff measures remain at the lower end of the range. In addition, strong economic performance continued until April, providing the Federal Reserve with time to observe changes in the trade situation.However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the outlook for trade policy. Tariff measures will raise unemployment rates, and this impact may persist, while there are downside risks to the economy and labor market, and inflation faces upside risks. The "good news" is that there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts later this year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Standard Chartered Bank's senior investment strategist Foo Ken Yap stated that despite growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement interest rate cuts to buffer the impact on the bond market and support economic growth. The bank predicts that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury will decline from the current approximately 4.59% to 4%-4.25% within 12 months, while remaining optimistic about U.S. stocks, believing that strong corporate investment and resilient earnings expectations will continue to support the market. Standard Chartered also reiterated the value of gold as a hedge against inflation and recession risks, maintaining a target price of $3,500.

ChainCatcher news, MainSky Asset Management Chairman Eckhard Schulte stated that U.S. interest rates remain very restrictive, and he believes the Federal Reserve may not keep up with the situation. "The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates as soon as possible."He noted that although tariffs may lead to rising inflation, this will be a one-time impact. The Federal Reserve may not cut rates in June. "However, this brings a risk that due to its overreaction, it will fall behind the curve." This potential policy misstep represents the highest risk of a recession in the current U.S. economy. The current money market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, the analysis agency Tradingkey stated that the market consensus predicts a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in the overall CPI for April, which is the same as in March. However, among the four main components of the CPI, only food shows an upward momentum, but it only accounts for 13.7% of the total CPI. Therefore, we believe that inflation in April will be lower than the market consensus.This may increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting the rate cut cycle in June. Therefore, we expect the U.S. stock market to rise after the data is released, while the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields will decline.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the China International Capital Corporation research report states that if tariffs further downgrade, the Federal Reserve may be expected to cut interest rates. Current growth pressures are not reflected; April's non-farm payrolls remain strong, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also maintain resilience. Even if the Federal Reserve wants to respond preemptively, there is not enough justification, especially considering that Powell's term ends in May next year, which poses a significant risk of premature response. Therefore, in balancing the "dilemma" of inflation and growth, the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose to wait and see rather than take "preemptive" action. However, if the subsequent tariff risks can further downgrade, the Federal Reserve may have the opportunity to cut interest rates in the third or fourth quarter to alleviate the growth pressures at that time.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, as high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States reach an important consensus, a new round of rebound is triggered. The current trading situation in the U.S. stock market seems as if Trump's "Day of Liberation" shock never happened. Futures indicate that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will open nearly 4% higher, which could push the index significantly above the levels of April 2. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is expected to re-enter a bull market.Traders are also cutting back on bets regarding the extent of interest rate cuts by major central banks this year. Swap contracts linked to the Federal Reserve meeting now lean towards a 25 basis point cut in September. Last week, these contracts suggested that the Fed could make a policy change as early as July. However, some investors are concerned about the lack of details in the agreement announced on Monday and the risk of renewed conflict.Three months is not a long time to negotiate a resolution to complex trade disputes. Moreover, it is still unclear what the goals will be at the end of the cooling-off period. When asked how to avoid a further increase in tariffs after the 90-day delay period ends, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that it is possible to extend it further.

ChainCatcher message, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out in a report that their fundamental judgment on the U.S. economy still supports the core view that "short-term U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and the yield curve will eventually steepen." However, if there is a lack of solid economic data to support expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market's pricing for rate cuts may continue to weaken in the short term."If, in the current environment of high inflation and with economic data not deteriorating enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates, the market's confidence in the space for rate cuts gradually fades, then as government debt continues to accumulate, the term premium may face greater upward pressure, thereby pushing yields higher."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin Shi reports, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that Powell downplayed any speculation about the Fed seeking to ease economic weakness caused by Trump's tariffs through interest rate cuts. Powell mentioned the word "wait" 22 times during the press conference to emphasize that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. This statement reveals the monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other economies caused by Trump's trade policy, for the simple reason that other economies have not significantly raised tariffs on imported goods. The issues they face are soft demand and employment, but without the inflationary pressures that the Fed may have to deal with later this year.Moreover, since the U.S. economy has just gone through a period of high inflation, the Fed believes it cannot risk preemptively cutting interest rates to support slowing employment, lest it exacerbates price pressures in the short term. As a result, the Fed's stance differs from that of the European, Canadian, and British central banks. Powell hinted that the Fed would only cut rates if there is evidence of a significant slowdown in economic growth, and it could be a rapid rate cut.

ChainCatcher News, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: President Trump’s request for interest rate cuts will not affect the work of the Federal Reserve.

ChainCatcher message, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: In some cases, it is appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and in some cases, it is not appropriate to cut interest rates. I cannot confidently say that I know the appropriate path for interest rates.

ChainCatcher news, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this time is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 71.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 27.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.6%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Swiss private bank economist David Kohl stated that the U.S. economy shows almost no signs of weakness. After the release of the non-farm payroll report in April, he said: "The unstable and restrictive economic policies in the U.S., including the introduction of high tariffs, have not yet had the expected negative impact on labor market data." The economist pointed out that better-than-expected job growth and low unemployment rates have driven sustained strong growth in private consumption.Kohl added that the data is very solid, and the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut interest rates this week. Kohl said that the Fed might ignore negative data from survey indicators and wait until economic data shows weakness before taking action.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, U.S. consumer and business surveys show an anxious economic sentiment, but the underlying data has not indicated a severe economic slowdown. Goldman Sachs economists wrote that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease policy based solely on "soft data," especially since in the recent past, soft data has incorrectly predicted an impending recession, such as during the Fed's fight against inflation in 2022.Goldman Sachs' team wrote that the Fed "also wants to see evidence from the labor market and other hard data before cutting rates." This investment bank, like other Wall Street institutions, believes that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in Wednesday's rate decision.

ChainCatcher news reports that, according to 4E monitoring, Federal Reserve officials have consecutively expressed support for an earlier rate cut, boosting market sentiment. The U.S. stock market continues its upward momentum, with all three major indices closing higher. The Nasdaq performed particularly strongly, rising by 2.74%, marking the first time since May 2001 that it has recorded three consecutive days of gains exceeding 2%. The S&P 500 rose by 2.03%, while the Dow Jones, affected by some blue-chip earnings reports, had a relatively modest increase of 1.23%. The technology sector led the gains, with the "seven sisters" of technology averaging an increase of about 3%.The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatile consolidation, with Bitcoin hovering above $93,000. Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive days, indicating a noticeable rebound in investor confidence towards risk assets. Ethereum has retreated from $1,800, with spot ETFs showing net outflows again. Other major altcoins have generally fluctuated slightly, with the layer 2 sector leading the gains. The continuous rise over several days has kept market sentiment soaring, re-entering the "greed" zone.The forex and commodity markets are showing a mixed performance. Under pressure from rate cut expectations, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.47%; the weakness of the dollar boosted oil prices, with crude oil fluctuating upward, and WTI rising over 0.83%; gold prices rebounded, returning to above $3,300, with spot gold rising by 1.77%, reported at $3,346.As several Federal Reserve officials publicly hinted at a possible rate cut in June, the impact of Trump’s tariffs has temporarily faded, leading to a general market rise. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for May 6 to 7. According to CME Group's FedWatch data, investors generally believe that there will be no change in May, with the probability of a rate cut in June rising to 58%.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that as the unemployment rate rises, interest rate cuts may begin.

ChainCatcher news, Noah Weiss, Senior Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global Investments, stated that the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three to four times in 2025 and five to six times by July 2026 is reasonable. "Not because this is our expectation, but because it strikes a delicate balance between two distinctly different yet very plausible scenarios."In the first scenario, inflation remains high while the economy avoids recession, which means the Fed will cut rates at a slower pace than the market currently anticipates. The other scenario involves an economic downturn and declining inflation, potentially leading to five to six rate cuts by the end of 2025 and possibly eight or more cuts by July 2026, depending on the severity of the recession.

ChainCatcher news, Federal Reserve's Harker stated that if growth slows and inflation eases, there may be interest rate cuts, potentially even rapid cuts. The current restrictive monetary policy is necessary to reduce inflation, financial conditions have tightened, and responding correctly is better than acting too early; high inflation and slow growth will pose challenges to Federal Reserve policy. (Jin Ten)

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, an institutional survey shows that inflation in the Eurozone will be lower than previously predicted due to the increase in tariffs by the United States. This survey supports the rationale for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this week. Analysts expect the average increase in consumer prices for 2026 and 2027 to be 1.9% and 2%, respectively, both of which have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. They also anticipate that this year's economic growth rate will be 0.8%, slightly lower than previously expected, after which economic growth momentum is expected to pick up.In another survey, economists predict that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates two more times in April and June. JPMorgan economist Greg Fuzesi stated, "Even if the U.S. suspends tariffs, a rate cut in April still makes sense." He added, "The rate cut in June may also not cause much controversy," but the subsequent path will depend on how trade negotiations with the United States develop.