eurozone

According to Jinshi News, Chris Turner from ING stated in a report that the prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike are increasingly strengthening, which is expected to support the dollar. Even with news of specific progress in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the dollar should not have much room for decline.He pointed out that Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned in a recent speech that if oil prices remain high, the possibility of an interest rate hike cannot be ruled out. At the same time, due to economic fragility, investors have lowered their expectations for interest rate hikes in the Eurozone and the UK.

According to sources, Eurozone finance ministers will discuss the issuance of euro-denominated stablecoins and ways to enhance the euro's monetary status through more joint EU debt.

ChainCatcher live report, Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes delivered a keynote speech at this year's Token 2049 conference in Singapore, warning that France is facing a serious capital flight crisis. Data from the European Central Bank's target balance system shows that since 2021, France has had the largest capital outflow in the Eurozone, with the French public transferring funds to countries like Germany.The core issue is that France's net investment position is -38% of GDP, but unlike the United States, it does not have a reserve currency status and must rely on financing from surplus countries like Germany and Japan. However, Trump's "America First" policy has prompted a return of funds to Germany and Japan, cutting off the funding supply to France.Hayes pointed out that the European Central Bank is in a dilemma: if it does not print money to support France, it will lead to a Brexit crisis; if it prints money, it will lose fiscal control over member states. He estimates that once France implements capital controls, the European Central Bank may need to print 5 trillion euros to bail out the banking system. Hayes advises investors to withdraw from European assets and turn to Bitcoin and gold, as the Eurozone will inevitably face large-scale money printing.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, today's key economic data and events to focus on include: 14:00 Germany's July PPI month-on-month, UK's July CPI month-on-month and retail price index month-on-month, 15:10 ECB President Lagarde attending a meeting, 17:00 Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year and month-on-month final values, 22:30 US EIA crude oil inventories and Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending August 15, 23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaking at a blockchain seminar, and at 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, European Central Bank advisor Jürgen Schaaf stated that the widespread use of dollar stablecoins in the EU could undermine the central bank's ability to conduct monetary policy, similar to the challenges faced by dollarized economies. He pointed out that USDT and USDC currently account for over 80% of the stablecoin market, and the market size could reach $2 trillion after the implementation of the U.S. Stablecoin Act.To address this trend, Schaaf suggested supporting the development of euro stablecoins and emphasized the importance of a digital euro in maintaining European monetary sovereignty. Data shows that the total market value of global stablecoins reached $271.8 billion after the signing of the U.S. bill on July 19.

ChainCatcher news, according to the Financial Times, the European Central Bank warns that the rise of stablecoins could undermine the eurozone's monetary policy.The European Central Bank stated that the early dominance of the dollar in stablecoins gives the U.S. an advantage, potentially raising borrowing costs in Europe, weakening the autonomy of the European Central Bank, and increasing dependence on the U.S.

ChainCatcher news, Angel Talavera from the Oxford Economic Institute said that imposing a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU to the US could push the Eurozone to the brink of recession.Trump threatened that if the two sides cannot reach a trade agreement, he would raise the tariffs on EU goods from 10% to 30% starting August 1.Talavera stated that this could be Trump's negotiation strategy, but according to the agency's calculations, if high tariffs are implemented, the collective growth rate of the Eurozone could decline by 0.3 percentage points over the next two years. In this scenario, the Eurozone economy would stagnate in the coming quarters and be close to a prolonged recession. He added, "The risk of tariffs exceeding our baseline assumption of 10% has now significantly increased."

ChainCatcher news, Barclays Bank stated in a report released on Thursday evening that the likelihood of the U.S. economy falling into recession this year has significantly decreased due to signs of easing tensions in U.S.-China trade. As a result, the bank has raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth.Barclays now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 0.5% this year and 1.6% in 2026, both higher than the previous forecasts of -0.3% and 1.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, as uncertainty decreases and the overall economic environment improves, Barclays has also raised its growth expectations for the Eurozone.The Eurozone is now expected to achieve zero growth this year, better than the previous forecast of a contraction of 0.2%. However, the Eurozone may still experience a technical recession in the second half of this year, although the extent of the recession is expected to be smaller than previously anticipated. "Overall, we remain cautious about the growth outlook for the Eurozone, as current uncertainty remains high, negotiations between the U.S. and Europe regarding reciprocal tariffs are still at a technical level, and there are no signs of progress."

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, an institutional survey shows that inflation in the Eurozone will be lower than previously predicted due to the increase in tariffs by the United States. This survey supports the rationale for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this week. Analysts expect the average increase in consumer prices for 2026 and 2027 to be 1.9% and 2%, respectively, both of which have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. They also anticipate that this year's economic growth rate will be 0.8%, slightly lower than previously expected, after which economic growth momentum is expected to pick up.In another survey, economists predict that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates two more times in April and June. JPMorgan economist Greg Fuzesi stated, "Even if the U.S. suspends tariffs, a rate cut in April still makes sense." He added, "The rate cut in June may also not cause much controversy," but the subsequent path will depend on how trade negotiations with the United States develop.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, ECB Governing Council member Villeroy stated that the 25% increase in U.S. tariffs in the second quarter has a limited impact on European inflation, but it may lead to a 0.3 percentage point decline in the eurozone's GDP for the entire year.Villeroy mentioned that, in the short term, President Trump's "lose-lose" strategy is harming the United States, as evidenced by the Federal Reserve's downward revision of its forecasts. Trump is undermining the multilateral system, increasing long-term risks to financial order and climate.

ChainCatcher news, according to Reuters, Germany will elect a new parliament on February 23, which could have far-reaching implications for the financial sector of Europe's largest economy.Among them, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ranks second in the polls, but Germany's mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with it in any government, meaning its proposals may never be realized. Nevertheless, their financial policy plans are the most specific and radical.The AfD calls for Germany to exit the Eurozone, supports "extensive deregulation" of Bitcoin, wallets, and trading, and opposes the digital euro, among other things.

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank Asset Management analyst Johannes Müller stated in a webinar that the decline in inflation in the Eurozone next year should enable the European Central Bank to further cut interest rates.The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Asset Management mentioned that the company expects the European Central Bank to cut rates five more times, once in December, and then four more times before the third quarter of 2025. Deutsche Bank Asset Management predicts that the inflation rate will drop to 2.0% in 2025, down from 2.3% in 2024. However, due to strong wage growth and inflation in service prices, core inflation may still remain elevated.

ChainCatcher news, ABN Amro analysts stated in a report that Trump's victory in the election could pose challenges to economic growth in the Eurozone. Tariffs on imported goods may lead to a decline in Eurozone exports, affecting its growth prospects. ABN Amro stated, "A 10% universal tariff would lead to a significant decline in Eurozone exports and have a 1.5 percentage point impact on Eurozone growth over the next few years."

ChainCatcher news, ECB board member and Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel stated to reporters during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting in Washington, "We believe it is possible to reach the 2% inflation target earlier than we had anticipated, potentially in 2025."The European Central Bank has cut interest rates three times since June, and markets and economists expect further cuts in the future. Nagel warned against speculating on the next steps, stating, "We should not consider further rate cuts too hastily."