4Alpha Research

The U.S. market faces a triple whammy in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with U.S. Treasury yields soaring to 4.47%, the dollar index falling below 100, and gold surpassing $3,200. Stagflation risks are emerging, liquidity crises and the spiral of U.S. Treasury sell-offs are intensifying, coupled with nearly $9 trillion in maturing debt pressure by 2025. The market is shifting towards defensive logic, leading to a divergence in safe-haven assets.

This week, the Trump administration launched an unexpectedly aggressive tariff policy, triggering severe fluctuations in global markets. U.S. stocks faced the worst sell-off since 2020, with the S&P 500 plummeting 10% over two days, and commodities collapsing simultaneously, with oil and copper prices dropping more than 10% in a week, showing significant differentiation in safe-haven assets. The increase in tariffs far exceeded expectations, primarily targeting Asian economies, with clear political intentions that may provoke countermeasures from China and Europe, extending the duration of the game of chess.

The risk of stagflation in the United States is rising: Q1 GDP is expected to decline by 1.8%, with unemployment rates rising in 290 out of 387 metropolitan areas, highlighting the stickiness of PCE inflation. Market risk aversion dominates, with gold rising / U.S. stocks under pressure, and credit spreads widening, exacerbating recession concerns. The decision on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may become a short-term indicator; it is recommended to allocate gold and U.S. Treasuries to hedge against volatility, and to reduce holdings in technology and crypto assets on rallies.

Introduction: The funding rate arbitrage strategy is one of the more stable profit strategies in the cryptocurrency market, favored by institutions. However, for ordinary investors, the execution of this strategy is extremely difficult, often resulting in a situation where it is "visible but unattainable." This article will delve into the basic principles of funding rate arbitrage, specific methods, and the core competitiveness of institutions in this field, helping readers to fully understand its essence and application.

【Macro Express】The Federal Reserve's "data dependence" stabilizes expectations, gold breaks through $3000! Next week, reciprocal tariffs may stir trade waves, and the market is cautiously defensive while looking for opportunities. With inflation games and improved liquidity, focus on core PCE data, and the strategy should be "both defensive and offensive."

Market adjustments continue, defensive assets become a safe haven! Gold hits a new high, BTC still holds long-term value, and the widening credit spread sounds the alarm. Next week focuses on the Federal Reserve meeting, with interest rate cut expectations and a potential pause in QT possibly becoming key turning point signals!

The US stock market has triggered systemic selling, with non-farm employment showing differentiated demand-side pressure. The Federal Reserve reiterates its inflation anchoring target, with the policy balance tilting towards interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs and economic resilience still await data verification, suggesting a flexible position to respond to CPI/PPI guidance and capture the switching window between recession and recovery trades.

Market trapped in recession expectation game: US Treasury yield curve inversion warns, funds flow into government bonds for safety, US stocks and crypto assets under pressure. Next week's non-farm payroll data may determine the strength of the "recession trade," with a focus on defense amid volatility. Long-term outlook remains optimistic on the innovation potential of the crypto sector, while short-term fluctuations do not change the upward trend!

Bybit and Infini, two major platforms, have successively suffered from hacker attacks, with the cold and hot wallet isolation mechanism and permission management vulnerabilities becoming fatal shortcomings. Although there is a panic-driven withdrawal trend in the market, $4 billion in institutional funds has entered the market against the trend, confirming the industry's resilience. Investors urgently need to build a robust system while paying attention to regulatory variables such as the EU's "Digital Asset Framework" and the FBI's anti-money laundering enforcement in the United States, in order to capture opportunities for undervalued quality assets during the period of reconstructing security standards.

The turmoil caused by the yen carry trade leading to asset declines will eventually pass, but what will happen to Japan's monetary policy and macroeconomics?