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BTC $74,975.86 +0.13%
ETH $2,336.26 -0.61%
BNB $628.24 +0.81%
XRP $1.44 +2.12%
SOL $88.15 +3.17%
TRX $0.3257 +0.02%
DOGE $0.0980 +1.49%
ADA $0.2557 +2.23%
BCH $449.09 +1.54%
LINK $9.44 +1.41%
HYPE $43.57 -3.86%
AAVE $113.53 +6.44%
SUI $0.9901 +1.48%
XLM $0.1664 +3.41%
ZEC $334.14 -2.57%
BTC $74,975.86 +0.13%
ETH $2,336.26 -0.61%
BNB $628.24 +0.81%
XRP $1.44 +2.12%
SOL $88.15 +3.17%
TRX $0.3257 +0.02%
DOGE $0.0980 +1.49%
ADA $0.2557 +2.23%
BCH $449.09 +1.54%
LINK $9.44 +1.41%
HYPE $43.57 -3.86%
AAVE $113.53 +6.44%
SUI $0.9901 +1.48%
XLM $0.1664 +3.41%
ZEC $334.14 -2.57%

-mak

Analysis: The average cost of BTC loss-making positions is $93,600, and a large number of high-position trapped positions have been cut and exited

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin chips has currently fallen below $100,000, now at only $93,600. This means that under the current chip structure, BTC will reach the market average breakeven point when it rises back to $93,000. During the two rapid declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-position trapped chips chose to cut losses and exit, lowering the average cost of overall floating loss chips.It is also observed that the average cost of loss-making chips has a deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current 30-day average price of BTC, while in the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has exceeded 2 at least. When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2, it indicates that the market has entered an absolute bottom range, at which point the price of BTC is less than 50% of the average cost of loss-making chips. To meet this condition, the lowest point of BTC in this round would need to drop to $46,800, but historical patterns may not always hold true. This bear market may be less painful than any previous bear market. According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the market related to whether Bitcoin will reach $60,000 or $80,000 first on Polymarket, the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.

The SEC Chairman signals the direction of cryptocurrency regulation: clarifying the investment contract framework and promoting innovation exemptions and rule-making

The official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published a speech by Chairman Paul Atkins at the ETHDenver conference, outlining the agency's direction on cryptocurrency regulation, which mainly includes:Clarifying the "investment contract" framework: The Commission will study and publish a framework that clarifies under what circumstances crypto assets constitute investment contracts, as well as their formation and termination mechanisms.Innovation exemptions: Considering the establishment of innovation exemptions that allow for pilot trading of certain tokenized securities under restricted conditions, including limited trading on new platforms such as automated market makers, to accumulate experience for a long-term regulatory framework.Advancement of rules and guidance: Plans to initiate or advance rulemaking on topics such as financing pathways for crypto assets, broker-dealer custody for non-securities crypto assets (including payment stablecoins), and modernization of transfer agent rules; and continue to provide clarity for non-registration scenarios such as wallets and user interfaces through no-action letters and exemption orders.Regulatory philosophy: Paul Atkins emphasized that regulators should not react to short-term price fluctuations. The responsibility of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to ensure adequate information disclosure and clear rules, allowing market participants to make decisions in a transparent environment, rather than "supporting prices."

Analysis: Yesterday, the BTC and ETH spot minute charts showed unusual fluctuations, possibly due to a market-making robot experiencing a liquidation

The founder of crypto market maker Wintermute, Evgeny Gaevoy, analyzed the unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets on February 8th. He indicated that it is likely due to a market-making bot experiencing a liquidation, with losses potentially reaching tens of millions of dollars. The unusual fluctuations were caused by the bot's losses rather than any malicious intent from market makers, and Wintermute was clearly not involved.Evgeny Gaevoy further expressed skepticism regarding rumors of "large institutions facing liquidation" in the market, and even if such cases do exist, they would not have a medium to long-term impact. In contrast to the past collapses of Three Arrows Capital and FTX, where liquidation news spread quickly and there were clear signs indicating the validity of the liquidations, such as institutions seeking rescue, the current market rumors mainly come from anonymous accounts and have not been confirmed by reliable sources.The leverage in this cycle primarily comes from perpetual contracts. Trading platforms no longer take risks with user assets to invest in low-liquidity assets or extend special credit as they did in the past. The tightening of credit has resulted in institutional credit sizes being less than $2 billion, which limits the impact and makes it difficult to trigger a chain liquidation like in 2022.Previous reports indicated that on February 8th, there were unusual fluctuations in the 1-minute charts of Bitcoin and ETH spot markets, with single-minute amplitudes exceeding 1% and even 3% from 00:05 to 00:17.
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