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Analyst: Bitcoin volatility has decreased by 56% from its quarterly peak, and the market has entered a high compression accumulation phase

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a recent report that the Bitcoin market has entered a significant volatility compression phase. The realized volatility over the past week (30-day moving average) has dropped from about 39 in early March this year to the current level of around 17, with a quarterly decline of over 56%, approaching historical low levels. Currently, the BTC price remains around $73,500, still below the approximately $79,500 200-day moving average. Historical experience shows that extremely low volatility often indicates that the market is accumulating energy, typically followed by a significant directional trend. However, volatility compression itself does not provide directional signals; it merely indicates that the market is about to make a new trend choice.Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premiums (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has been in negative territory for six consecutive months, further dropping to about -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that the growth rate of Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to lag behind the growth rate of realized market capitalization, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premium.The current market exhibits a combination of "low volatility + cooling premiums," which is not a typical overheated bull market structure but rather resembles a consolidation phase after emotional cooling. If BTC subsequently returns above the 200-day moving average, and Delta rebounds to near zero, it will indicate that the market has re-entered a risk appetite expansion cycle; conversely, if volatility releases downward and Delta continues to deteriorate, it may enter a deeper risk-averse phase.In summary, Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is at a high level, and the probability of significant directional volatility in the future is continuously increasing.

first_img Polymarket has reached an exclusive partnership with OneFootball, reaching 645 million fans before the World Cup starts

Polymarket announced on Thursday that it has signed an exclusive partnership agreement with the Berlin digital football platform OneFootball, which will connect the prediction market to OneFootball's 200 million monthly active users and 645 million fan ecosystem about two weeks before the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Polymarket will be the only prediction market partner within the OneFootball app, and competitors like Kalshi will not be allowed to enter this product.This is Polymarket's seventh major football partnership this year and the first collaboration aimed at media application distribution channels, having previously signed agreements with MLS, LaLiga, Serie A, Lazio, and DAZN.According to analysis by the Pew Research Center, since July 2024, sports have accounted for 39% of Polymarket's total trading volume. The 2026 World Cup champion market has seen a cumulative trading volume of over $1.2 billion since its launch last July, while the broader World Cup category market totals approximately $1.3 billion.OneFootball has previously launched the OFC token based on Base and Ethereum, as well as the points system BALLS. The integration with Polymarket will convert user engagement into actual transactions. OneFootball has raised over $300 million in funding, with investors including Liberty City Ventures, Animoca Brands, and Adidas.

Duan Yongping continues to increase his stake in Pop Mart, optimistic about its overseas expansion prospects and highly praising founder Wang Ning

Well-known investor Duan Yongping recently expressed his continued optimism about Pop Mart's future overseas growth potential during discussions with investors. He believes that Pop Mart has high requirements for store location selection, and since quality commercial location resources are scarce, the construction of a global store network will take a long time. With the advancement of the internationalization strategy, the company still has significant store expansion space in overseas markets over the next 5 to 10 years.Recently, Duan Yongping's increased stake in Pop Mart through H&H International Investment has attracted market attention. Public information shows that on May 25, he purchased approximately 9.8232 million shares at about HKD 150 per share, raising his shareholding ratio to 5.69%, making him the company's second-largest shareholder, with a holding market value exceeding HKD 11.7 billion.Driven by market sentiment, Pop Mart's stock price has continued to strengthen recently. Data shows that the company's stock price rose by 8.98% yesterday, and based on the size of his holdings, Duan Yongping's paper profit for the day was nearly HKD 1 billion.It is noteworthy that Duan Yongping's investment attitude towards Pop Mart has undergone a significant change. He had previously publicly stated that he "did not understand" the related business, but as the company's business model gradually matures, he has begun to significantly increase his holdings and is optimistic about the company's long-term development.After becoming the second-largest shareholder, Duan Yongping publicly praised Pop Mart's founder Wang Ning, believing that he has reached a very high level in understanding products and grasping user needs, and stated that he has become a supporter of Wang Ning. He also pointed out that Pop Mart has validated the sustainability of its business model and established strong competitive barriers, possessing long-term investment value.Public information shows that Duan Yongping has further increased his allocation ratio to Pop Mart this year and adjusted some of his holdings in traditional energy sectors to this company, expressing his optimism about its long-term growth prospects.

The U.S. Congress will advance a bipartisan cryptocurrency tax bill, which may become the next significant legislation following the CLARITY Act

Jason Smith, the chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives' fundraising committee, stated that digital asset tax legislation must receive bipartisan support; otherwise, the related bill process will not advance. Subsequently, U.S. Representatives Steven Horsford, Max Miller, Suzan DelBene, and Mike Carey jointly proposed the "Digital Asset Protection, Accountability, Regulation, Innovation, Taxation, and Revenue Act" (PARITY Act). The bill aims to update digital asset tax rules, provide a clearer regulatory framework for the market, while enhancing investor protection and preventing market manipulation.Representative Steven Horsford stated that the bill will help ordinary investors participate more safely in the digital asset market and promote wealth accumulation opportunities. Max Miller believes that the current U.S. tax laws are unable to adapt to the rapid development of digital assets and modern financial technology. Currently, the PARITY Act and the advancing CLARITY Act are seen as important components of establishing a comprehensive regulatory system for crypto assets in the United States.The U.S. Congress released a tax policy discussion draft in March this year and held a bipartisan roundtable in May to discuss the tax framework for crypto assets. The market is closely watching whether the CLARITY Act can be passed by 2026. Analysts believe that if both the CLARITY Act and the PARITY Act are ultimately legislated and combined with the subsequent rule-making of the GENIUS Act, the U.S. crypto industry will welcome a clearer regulatory environment, further promoting Web3 and DeFi into the mainstream financial system.
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