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VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

Analysis: Bitcoin soars to an 11-week high, possibly due to the U.S. Treasury increasing its bond buyback

According to Cointelegraph, driven by the U.S. Treasury's expansion of the national debt repurchase scale and improved market liquidity expectations, Bitcoin surged significantly after the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since June 2.Previously, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting from September 9, it would expand the scale of long-term national debt repurchase operations, increasing the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. This move is seen by the market as providing more liquidity support to the long-term bond market, pushing risk assets to rise broadly.As a result of the news, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds quickly fell, decreasing about 9 basis points from its nearly 20-year high to 5.19%. The U.S. Treasury stated that the expansion of the repurchase scale aims to meet the persistent investor demand in the long-term national debt market and enhance market liquidity.However, analysts pointed out that this repurchase does not reduce U.S. debt but rather adjusts the maturity structure of the national debt. As the U.S. government debt approaches $40 trillion, the market remains focused on fiscal pressure and the risks of rising interest expenditures.Bitfinex stated that although Bitcoin has rebounded recently, the upside potential is still limited by insufficient liquidity in stablecoins. Data shows that since May, the supply of stablecoins on exchanges has decreased by about $14 billion. Additionally, on-chain data indicates that the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR), which measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market value and the total market value of stablecoins, has been rising recently, from 9.82 on June 30 to 11.69, indicating that the market liquidity environment remains tight.Analysts believe that the improved expectations for U.S. fiscal liquidity may provide short-term support for Bitcoin and risk assets, but the lack of significant inflows of stablecoin funds means that further increases will still require more capital confirmation.

Data: The total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday was $189 million, and Hashdex DEFI announced its delisting

According to SoSoValue data, the total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is $189 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $144 million, bringing IBIT's historical total net inflow to $61.4 billion. Following that is Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a single-day net inflow of $23.92 million, and FBTC's historical total net inflow currently stands at $10.02 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was VanEck ETF HODL, with a single-day net outflow of $16.92 million, and HODL's historical total net inflow currently stands at $1.07 billion. Additionally, Hashdex's Bitcoin spot ETF DEFI has initiated a liquidation process due to factors such as asset size, trading liquidity, and operating costs, having ended trading on NYSE Arca on August 17 and will subsequently delist; the fund will begin liquidating its remaining Bitcoin holdings on August 18, with cash liquidation payments to be made to holders around August 24.Bloomberg data shows that as of July 30, DEFI's assets under management were approximately $7.28 million. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $79.3 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value relative to total Bitcoin market value) reaching 6.12%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $52.28 billion.
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