bit

Binance Research released a chart analysis this week indicating that four on-chain signals point to the same conclusion: supply is tightening, and selling pressure has been exhausted.Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of BTC supply has not moved for over a year, significantly higher than 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024 and has since remained close to historical highs.SLRV indicator: The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory, indicating a lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate the supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio entering the current region.Exchange balances: Since peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, exchange balances have dropped to 15%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges, and seller supply has fallen to a six-year low.STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the BTC short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, this ratio has rebounded to 1, and short-term holders are beginning to reaccumulate unrealized gains. As profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately; historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

According to CryptoBriefing, Iran has launched the state-supported digital maritime insurance platform Hormuz Safe, which provides maritime insurance for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, settling in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The Iranian government believes that if the platform can capture a significant share of the Persian Gulf shipping insurance market, it could generate over $10 billion in revenue.Hormuz Safe aims to bypass the SWIFT network and Western intermediaries, reducing Iran's reliance on traditional financial infrastructure. The biggest obstacle the platform faces is the issue of international recognition; if shipowners, trading companies, or port authorities interact with the platform, it may trigger secondary sanctions risks.

Market analyst Ali posted on platform X that Bitcoin is currently showing signs of "overheating." Data indicates that the average realized profit margin for traders has risen to 17%, which means a large number of investors are in a significantly profitable position, and potential profit-taking pressure is increasing.The last time a similar situation occurred was in March 2022, when Bitcoin was testing the resistance level of the 200-day moving average, and the average profit margin also reached 17%. Subsequently, the market formed a temporary top and re-entered a downtrend. This historical signal has appeared again, warranting high vigilance from the market.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has recently attempted to break through the $82,000 level three times, but each time it faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking profits during the uptrend rather than continuing to hold.Currently, $82,000 is not only a key resistance level from a technical perspective but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong selling pressure area.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, BIT-related whales increased their long positions in ETH during the market downturn, currently holding 120,000 ETH, worth $254 million, with an unrealized loss of $17.5 million.

According to Bits.media, the U.S. Department of Justice has announced the initiation of a compensation program for victims of the cryptocurrency mining scam AirBit Club. Founded in 2015, AirBit Club operated a financial pyramid scheme under the guise of cryptocurrency mining and virtual currency trading platforms. U.S. authorities have seized over $400 million in assets for compensation. Victims who previously provided information to the FBI or prosecutors will be contacted by RCB Fund Services. Prosecutors stated that there are no fees for the compensation process.The founder of AirBit Club was charged with money laundering and fraud by the Southern District of New York in August 2020, and the trial concluded in September 2023, with the court ordering the forfeiture of all fraud proceeds, including over 16,000 bitcoins.

According to Darkforst statistics, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 13,000 BTC last week, marking the worst week since early February. Among them, Ark Invest experienced the largest outflow, withdrawing over 4,000 BTC on its own.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that currently close to 15% of Bitcoin's supply is concentrated around the 200-day moving average, which is in the range of approximately $83,000 to $85,000.He believes that if Bitcoin breaks through $85,000, it could quickly rise to $95,000. Additionally, the true market mean (TMM) and the cost basis of short-term holders are still forming key support around approximately $78,000.

On-chain analyst Darkfost stated that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) continues to increase, currently rising to 15.26 million BTC, the highest level since August 2025.In the past 30 days, the LTH supply has increased by approximately 316,000 BTC, in stark contrast to a net decrease of 650,000 BTC over the 30 days at the end of November last year, when a large amount of Bitcoin flowed out of long-term holders' wallets.Darkfost indicated that this suggests that some investors who accumulated Bitcoin about six months ago are still continuing to hold.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin Strategy, has once again released information related to Bitcoin Tracker, stating: "₿ig Dot Energy".According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform that Bitcoin was rejected again at $82,000, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still not managed to stay above 1, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rebound. Currently, crude oil is close to $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped by 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining high for a long time.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin recently fell below $79,000 after facing significant selling pressure around $82,000. Market analysis suggests that the current BTC trend is highly correlated with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that it is still viewed by the market as a "risk asset" rather than a safe-haven tool. Analysts point out that the escalating situation in Iran, rising oil prices, and concerns about a global economic recession are continuously suppressing market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has recently turned negative, indicating a significant lack of demand for leveraged long positions, and traders remain cautious about short-term increases. However, the report suggests that in the medium term, large-scale capital outflows from the fixed income market may actually be beneficial for BTC.As global government bond yields rise to decades-high levels, investors are gradually withdrawing from the bond market, and some liquidity may flow back into risk assets, including Bitcoin. Currently, the yields on 10-year U.S. and European government bonds have both reached multi-year highs, while Brent crude oil prices have also surpassed $100, exacerbating market concerns about inflation and economic pressure.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Will Bitcoin exceed ___ on May 17?" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "yes" option in the sub-market "78,000" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 57.85% an hour ago to the current 74.55% (a fluctuation of 16.7%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for 11 consecutive days, currently reported at -0.0545%, as purchasing power in the U.S. market continues to remain sluggish. Previously, it had been in positive premium for 19 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the global market average price. A negative premium typically reflects significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decrease in investor risk appetite, an increase in market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala has increased its IBIT holdings to nearly $660 million worth of Bitcoin ETF shares.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement is highly synchronized with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors are the main driving force behind this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, has a higher capital cost and is more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks. Multiple attempts to breach $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence. Macro pressures have been piling up: the outcome of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market, with no specific tariff agreements reached aside from a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years; meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Additionally, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a significant contraction in overall market risk appetite. However, the massive sell-off in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on the Eurozone's 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to recession risks, central banks may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may ultimately seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from this.

According to Khaosod English, Thai authorities raided a location suspected of illegal Bitcoin mining. Due to abnormally high electricity consumption causing the surrounding building's cables to overheat and melt, law enforcement conducted a surprise search of a four-story commercial building. The investigation revealed that the location was suspected of illegally connecting to the main power grid to supply electricity to multiple Bitcoin mining machines on the fourth floor, resulting in an estimated power loss of over $80,000, while its registered monthly electricity bill was only about $11. Currently, the police have seized relevant mining equipment and are conducting further investigations into the individuals involved.

According to The Block, sovereign wealth funds, universities, and banks have recently disclosed their 13F holdings reports for the first quarter of 2026. On the sovereign wealth fund side, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increased its holdings in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ticker IBIT), raising its share count from 12,702,323 to 14,721,917, adding over $90 million in holdings, with a total holding value of nearly $660 million. Mubadala's Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC) maintained its IBIT holdings unchanged, holding 8,218,712 shares valued at $315.8 million.Several university endowments reported that their cryptocurrency ETF holdings remained largely stable. Harvard University's endowment reported holding 3,044,612 shares of IBIT, valued at approximately $117 million. This is a 43% decrease from the 5.35 million shares held at the end of 2025, after Harvard had already reduced its holdings by 21% in the fourth quarter. IBIT is no longer its largest holding (overtaken by TSMC, Alphabet, Microsoft, and SPDR Gold Trust). Harvard also completely liquidated its previously established position in BlackRock's Ethereum spot ETF valued at $86.8 million from the previous quarter.Dartmouth College reported holding 201,531 shares of IBIT, valued slightly above $9 million, unchanged from the previous quarter. The college transferred its Ethereum ETF holdings from Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust to Grayscale's Ethereum Staking ETF, keeping its 178,148 shares unchanged. Dartmouth also disclosed a new holding in Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, holding 304,803 shares, currently valued at nearly $3.67 million. This is the first time an institutional endowment fund has expressed interest in expanding its investment scope beyond Bitcoin or Ethereum into other cryptocurrencies.Meanwhile, Brown University maintained its holdings of 212,500 shares of IBIT, while Emory University simplified its Bitcoin fund holdings from two to one. The school liquidated its 4,450 shares of IBIT while increasing its holdings in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust from slightly over 1 million shares to 1,354,148 shares.Traditional financial institutions are also actively rebalancing positions and hedging. Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) increased its direct holdings in IBIT and enhanced the use of put and call options for hedging. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) increased its holdings by 214,370 shares of IBIT after liquidating its previously held Trump-related U.S. Bitcoin stocks. Barclays also disclosed its IBIT positions, including approximately 4.46 million shares of spot stock and a significant number of put and call option positions related to the ETF. Hong Kong-based Laurore has reduced its IBIT holdings from 8,786,279 shares to 6,846,279 shares.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, despite the market decline, the BIT-associated whale that previously made a profit of about 59 million USD is still continuously increasing its long positions in ETH.Currently, this whale holds a total of 114,160 ETH long positions across 4 wallets, with a position value of approximately 248.65 million USD, and a current unrealized loss of about 10.3 million USD.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?", the "yes" option for the sub-market "78,000" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 59.65% an hour ago to the current 42.25% (a fluctuation of 17.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.