Scan to download
BTC $67,220.21 +0.62%
ETH $1,938.40 -1.57%
BNB $608.37 -0.08%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $555.96 -0.28%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%
BTC $67,220.21 +0.62%
ETH $1,938.40 -1.57%
BNB $608.37 -0.08%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $555.96 -0.28%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

bond

Rick Rieder, a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, manages BlackRock's $2.4 trillion in assets and is regarded as the person who understands the bond market best in the United States

According to Fortune, in the past two weeks, Rick Rieder's odds of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair on Polymarket have surged to nearly 50%, clearly leading over the second-ranked Kevin Warsh (29%) and the third-ranked Christopher Waller (6%). Rieder's career has been almost entirely on the front lines of the global bond market, working as a trader and asset manager, deeply involved in the market, interpreting and profiting from central bank policy signals. Simply put, no one understands the bond market better than Rick Rieder. And in Trump's policy decision-making, nothing is more important than "whether the bond market is up or down."Currently, Rieder is responsible for BlackRock's global fixed income business, managing up to $2.4 trillion, which accounts for about one-sixth of the $14 trillion in assets under management at the world's largest asset management firm. A former CEO who worked with Rieder described him as "extremely personable" and stated that Rieder "has a very good understanding of how the market operates and is able to maintain independent judgment."If Rieder takes over as Federal Reserve Chair in May, he will face extremely daunting challenges. His stance on the federal funds rate has long been clear and is more aligned with Trump's camp. In an interview with CNBC on January 12, Rieder stated, "The Fed needs to lower rates to 3% (currently 3.50%--3.75%), which I believe is closer to a balanced level." The problem is that the Fed is currently implementing two policies that could potentially raise inflation. In mid-December last year, the central bank reversed its previous quantitative tightening (QT) policy. Additionally, the Fed is also reducing the amount of reserves that banks must hold at the central bank.

Arthur Hayes: If the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet to intervene in the yen and Japanese government bonds, it will be beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an in-depth analysis in his latest article regarding the recent depreciation of the yen and the decline in Japanese government bond prices, which has caused "anomalies" in the global market. He believes this indicates that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may soon collaborate to directly intervene in the yen and Japanese government bond markets through "money printing" to inject new liquidity into the global fiat currency system.Hayes specifically outlined the possible intervention path: the New York Fed creates dollar reserves and instructs primary dealers like JPMorgan to sell dollars and buy yen in the foreign exchange market to support the exchange rate, and may invest the acquired yen in Japanese government bonds to lower their yields. This operation will lead to an expansion of the "foreign currency-denominated assets" item on the Fed's balance sheet, essentially meaning that the Fed is taking on the interest rate risk of the yen exchange rate and Japanese government bonds through money printing.He analyzed the motives and consequences of this move: aimed at stabilizing the yen and lowering Japanese government bond yields to prevent Japanese investors from massively selling U.S. Treasuries, avoiding uncontrolled increases in U.S. Treasury yields, while enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. exports.This process will increase global dollar liquidity and may simultaneously boost the euro and yuan exchange rates. Hayes pointed out that this "non-QE" style of balance sheet expansion will ultimately provide upward momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin. In terms of trading strategy, he stated that a rapid strengthening of the yen against the dollar is usually a signal for reducing risk assets. Bitcoin's decline due to the strengthening yen means he will not increase his risk exposure until it is confirmed that the Fed is intervening in the yen and Japanese government bond markets by expanding its balance sheet.He has closed positions in leveraged Bitcoin-related assets such as Strategy and Metaplanet, stating that he will re-enter if his judgment proves correct. In the meantime, his fund Maelstrom continues to increase its holdings in Zcash, while positions in other quality DeFi tokens remain unchanged. He indicated that if the Fed indeed expands its balance sheet to intervene in the currency and bond markets, he will increase his holdings in DeFi assets such as ENA, ETHFI, PENDLE, and LDO.

QCP: The Japanese bond market is fluctuating amid escalating tariff conflicts between the US and Europe, with the market shifting to a risk-averse mode, causing Bitcoin to come under pressure and decline

QCP pointed out in the latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has significantly cooled over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market, combined with geopolitical tensions, has driven funds towards defensive positions. U.S. stocks briefly fell more than 2%, and the global bond market faced pressure simultaneously.The report states that Japan has become the core of current market anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to about 2.29%, reaching a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerabilities. Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with total debt around 1,342 trillion yen. It is expected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about a quarter of fiscal expenditures. The rising yields are triggering widespread doubts about the sustainability of Japan's public finances and are having spillover effects on the global bond market.Meanwhile, U.S.-European relations have once again become tense. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing U.S. control over Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1. The European Union has quickly stated that it will take countermeasures, and the bilateral trade relationship faces further escalation risks. In 2024, the scale of U.S.-European bilateral goods trade is estimated to be around $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflicts cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July this year.Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has continued to face pressure after falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, the momentum has not recovered. QCP noted that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to respond passively, with the focus of funds shifting towards capital preservation rather than risk betting.

QCP: The Japanese bond market is volatile and the conflict over tariffs between the US and Europe is intensifying, leading the market to shift into a risk-averse mode, putting pressure on Bitcoin to decline

QCP pointed out in its latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has significantly cooled over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market, combined with geopolitical tensions, has driven funds towards defensive positions. U.S. stocks briefly fell over 2%, and the global bond market faced pressure simultaneously. The report states that Japan has become the core of current market anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to about 2.29%, reaching a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerabilities.Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with total debt amounting to approximately 1,342 trillion yen. It is expected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about one-quarter of fiscal expenditures. The rising yields are triggering widespread doubts in the market about the sustainability of Japan's public finances, creating spillover effects in the global bond market. Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. and Europe have once again become tense. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing U.S. control over Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1. The European Union has quickly stated that it will take countermeasures, and the bilateral trade relationship faces further escalation risks.In 2024, the bilateral goods trade volume between the U.S. and Europe is expected to be around $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflicts cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July this year. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has continued to face pressure after falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, the momentum has not recovered. QCP pointed out that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to respond passively, with a shift in focus towards capital preservation rather than risk-taking.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.