geopolitical

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs' report indicates that despite rising geopolitical risks, investor risk appetite remains high, showing that the market has adequately digested macro risks.Investor optimism is currently at around the 67th percentile, with its proprietary risk appetite index rising to the highest level since April 2021. Funds are flowing comprehensively into high-risk assets, stock allocations remain positive, and international capital is accelerating into Europe, Japan, and emerging markets.

QCP pointed out in its latest daily market analysis that global market risk appetite has significantly cooled over the past week. The impact of the Japanese bond market, combined with geopolitical tensions, has driven funds towards defensive positions. U.S. stocks briefly fell over 2%, and the global bond market faced pressure simultaneously. The report states that Japan has become the core of current market anxiety. After a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to about 2.29%, reaching a new high since 1999, exposing severe fiscal vulnerabilities.Japan's government debt has exceeded 240% of GDP, with total debt amounting to approximately 1,342 trillion yen. It is expected that by 2026, debt interest payments will account for about one-quarter of fiscal expenditures. The rising yields are triggering widespread doubts in the market about the sustainability of Japan's public finances, creating spillover effects in the global bond market. Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. and Europe have once again become tense. The Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing U.S. control over Greenland, with plans to increase it to 25% on June 1. The European Union has quickly stated that it will take countermeasures, and the bilateral trade relationship faces further escalation risks.In 2024, the bilateral goods trade volume between the U.S. and Europe is expected to be around $650 billion to $700 billion, and the impact of escalating conflicts cannot be ignored. The European Parliament is also considering suspending the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in July this year. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has continued to face pressure after falling below $90,000. Although it briefly rebounded above $97,000, the momentum has not recovered. QCP pointed out that BTC currently resembles a high-beta risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool, being highly sensitive to interest rates, geopolitical issues, and cross-market volatility. Until policy signals become clearer, the crypto market may continue to respond passively, with a shift in focus towards capital preservation rather than risk-taking.

According to Jinshi News, the panic index VIX surged by 1.9 points on Tuesday, reaching an eight-week high of 20.69 points, and closed at 20.09 points, marking the highest closing price since November 24. Jim Carroll, a senior wealth advisor in Charleston, South Carolina, stated that although the risk indicators have shown a significant reaction, it is not yet a panic response that is urgent.Alex Morris from F/m Investments pointed out that the market's reaction to geopolitical turmoil is to avoid stock risks and buy gold and cash, and the panic index VIX needs to rise to 30 to trigger a real panic.

According to Jinshi reports, gold rose slightly in the Asian early session, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions that bolstered gold's safe-haven appeal. On Tuesday, Trump told the Iranian people protesting against the government that "help is on the way," marking the latest signal that the U.S. may take action soon. Carsten Fritsch, a commodity analyst at Commerzbank's research department, stated that the large-scale protests in Iran are providing a tailwind for gold prices, increasing the likelihood of U.S. military intervention.

According to Jinshi reports, in the first full trading week of 2026, cross-asset prices rose in sync, and Wall Street's risk sentiment is thriving again. The appetite for risk among investors is evident. The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% this week, while the Russell 2000 index increased by 4.6%. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) attracted $10 billion in just a few days—an astonishing pace for a passive fund. These mark a good start for the year.On Tuesday at 21:30, the U.S. December unadjusted CPI year-on-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year;On Wednesday at 21:30, the U.S. November retail sales month-on-month, U.S. November PPI year-on-year/month-on-month, and U.S. third-quarter current account;On Thursday at 21:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, the U.S. January New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. November import price index month-on-month.In addition, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking intensively next week, and it is unlikely that rates will be cut before Powell's successor takes office, as detailed in the attached image. Strategists at Bank of America Global Research stated that Friday's data reinforced their belief that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates again before the successor to Chairman Powell takes office.Next week, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. The nationwide unrest in Iran (including the capital Tehran) triggered by anti-government protests may also impact market risk sentiment in the short term.

According to Jinshi, emerging market stocks and currencies fell for the second consecutive day, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index dropping 0.8%, marking the largest decline since mid-December last year. Currencies from Thailand, South Korea, and South Africa led the decline. Bond issuance is experiencing the strongest start on record, with Poland also joining the ranks of countries issuing bonds to take advantage of low borrowing costs. The market is focused on the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, which may provide clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Ian Simmons, a fund manager at Fiera Capital in London, stated that the dollar may continue to weaken.

According to market news, 21Shares strategist Matt Mena stated that the recent rebound in Bitcoin indicates that escalating geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards cryptocurrencies. He noted that Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a "neutral" reserve asset, on par with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.Bitcoin fell over 6% last year, but historically, it has never experienced two consecutive years of decline, which provides a basis for this year's Bitcoin increase.

Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela reaching a boiling point early Saturday morning, Bitcoin prices remained strong, stabilizing around $90,000. BTC briefly dipped below $90,000 on Saturday but quickly rebounded above that level.Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the BTC price is currently above the 21-day moving average. If it can maintain this short-term support level, it suggests that prices may continue to rise in January. Notably, BTC's ability to remain stable amid recent geopolitical shocks is significant, as risk assets, including Bitcoin, typically experience sudden drops during geopolitical crises or macroeconomic headwinds.Jamie Cox, managing partner at HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP in Virginia, stated that the overall market reaction to the situation in Venezuela may be limited, and we might receive some news that could influence market trends during Sunday’s OPEC meeting.

According to Sentora's analysis, Bitcoin may experience multiple favorable factors in 2026, driving prices to continue rising.On December 26, Bitcoin will face the largest options expiration event in history, with a total nominal value of approximately $24 billion, which may release long-suppressed buying power and lay the foundation for a rise in early next year. At the same time, institutional funds are expected to peak in January through Bitcoin ETF allocations, further boosting demand.On the geopolitical front, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may reach a peace agreement in early 2026, reducing market risk premiums and enhancing investor confidence. Analysts expect that these combined factors could help Bitcoin break through the $150,000 mark in 2026, and investors should pay attention to the capital flows after the options expiration and related macro developments.

ChainCatcher news, the Learning Times public account hosted by the Central Party School published an article titled "The Wartime Military Functions of Digital Currency," which points out that digital currency is gradually becoming an important strategic tool in geopolitical competition. With the decentralized characteristics of blockchain technology, digital currency can provide advantages such as rapid fund mobilization, anonymous transactions, and evasion of sanctions during wartime, demonstrating military value in various geopolitical conflicts.Three main military application models of digital currency have emerged globally: "resource tokenization" in resource-rich countries (such as Venezuela's Petro), "decentralized crowdfunding" in small and medium-sized countries, and "on-chain sanctions" in developed countries. The "Defense Blockchain Internal Testing Program" mentioned in the U.S. "Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act" may become an important strategic tool for future "financial defense."Experts believe that although digital currency faces limitations such as market acceptance and regulatory policies, its militarized applications will continue to develop, potentially breaking through conventional functions in the future and transforming into a multifunctional strategic platform that integrates security assurance, combat support, and digital confrontation.

According to ChainCatcher news, citing a research report from CITIC Securities, since the end of April, gold has been in a volatile market. We believe that factors such as tariff shocks, U.S. fiscal policy, geopolitical issues, and central bank gold purchases have created a complex balance of bullish and bearish sentiments. However, changes in these factors are expected to open up an upward trend for gold.The improvement in tariff expectations may come to a temporary halt, while the impact of stagflation may just be beginning to manifest; the likelihood of a significant decrease in geopolitical risks within the year is low; the Federal Reserve may initiate an early rate cut; and the trend of global central bank gold purchases remains stable. Under a neutral hypothesis, our model predicts that gold prices are expected to exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, ING analyst Chris Turner pointed out that the euro is declining as the dollar strengthens and hopes for a short-term resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict fade. He mentioned that the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading the market to lower its bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, further boosting the dollar. If Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole prompts the market to reduce the probability of a rate cut in September, the euro may continue its downward trend, falling towards 1.15.

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Binance Research stated that BTC has historically rebounded after significant geopolitical events, with an average return of 37% over 60 days following such events since 2020.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley strategist Wilson stated that although the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have dominated the headlines, sell-offs triggered by geopolitical events typically last for a shorter duration.After the U.S. joined Israel's attack over the weekend, the market reaction was relatively mild, with Brent crude oil prices rising by as much as 5.7%, but most of the gains were given back on Monday. However, Iran may respond to the escalation by disrupting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transportation route for global oil and gas.

ChainCatcher news, according to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast today at 20:00 on the theme "Global Tremor! The Escalation of Conflict Between Iran and Israel, Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market: Safe Haven or Slaughterhouse?" Senior analysts from Canglan Community, Sanpang, and Coin Circle Assistant will be on-site to answer questions, analyze the market trends, and seize investment opportunities amid geopolitical conflicts. This event will be conducted through Huobi Live.