geopolitical

Affected by geopolitical and supply risk premiums, international oil prices have recently maintained a relatively high level of fluctuation. According to market data from the Gate platform, WTI crude oil (CLUSDT) is currently priced at $93.67, with a 24-hour increase of 2.09%. According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour contract open interest on the Gate platform for CLUSDT is $131 million, ranking among the top three in the industry; the 24-hour contract trading volume reached $79.01 million, also ranking high in trading activity within the industry.

On Thursday during the European trading session, Dow Jones index futures fell by 0.56%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.28%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by 0.44%.U.S. Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs, and high oil prices intensified inflation concerns. U.S.-Iran relations are tense, and the Strait of Hormuz is facing threats. The market is focused on speeches from Federal Reserve officials and a new batch of quarterly earnings reports.

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

According to Jinshi reports, affected by the dual impact of geopolitical conflicts and the strong El Niño disrupting global rainfall patterns, core agricultural costs such as crude oil and fertilizers are soaring, brewing a "perfect storm." A new round of global food inflation crisis may fully erupt from the end of this year to next year.

According to Jinshi reports, the CEO of Saudi Aramco warned that geopolitical crises are intensifying, and unprecedented supply shocks are occurring.

According to CoinDesk, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the significant decline in the crypto market in the first half of 2026 does not have a single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting funds to AI, and the typical four-year cycle of crypto may collectively lead to the continued decline of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 last October and has since fallen by about 50%. At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin opened near $89,000, briefly rose to just above $96,000, and then dropped to around $60,000.In the long term, the crypto industry will continue to develop, and the demand for fintech will increase as the number of transactions continues to rise, so they are not concerned about the industry itself or short-term price fluctuations. They stated that emerging industries like AI are absorbing "hot money" from the crypto sector, but in the long run, this could be a positive factor. When discussing prediction markets, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that the rapid growth of prediction markets as tools for price discovery and liquidity is a good thing for the public.Regarding regulation, Zhao Changpeng stated that separate bills like the U.S. Clarity Act are important but more tactical matters that will not determine the long-term growth of the crypto industry. He hopes the Clarity Act can pass and believes that if U.S. legislation is delayed, other countries may take the lead in advancing rule-making.Zhao Changpeng also mentioned that if the U.S. Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterm elections, there may be a review of Trump's support for the crypto industry and his pardons for crypto executives. Zhao Changpeng stated he "has nothing to hide" and is willing to cooperate if relevant parties seek information. When discussing political influence, Zhao Changpeng said he tries to stay away from U.S. politics but believes that any anti-crypto individuals may now lose a significant number of votes.

Due to the phased cooling of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have fallen. According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil (BZ) is currently priced at $109 per barrel, down 2.53% for the day. The market's long and short positions are intensifying, driving up trading activity in related contract markets.According to CoinGlass data, the current total open interest for BZ contracts across the network has reached $67.9316 million. Among centralized exchanges, Binance, Bitget, and OKX rank in the top three for open interest, with $46.9913 million, $8.3424 million, and $5.6461 million, respectively. Notably, Bitget's platform has seen a 24-hour open interest growth rate of 28.32%, leading the entire network.Currently, the Bitget panoramic exchange (UEX) ecosystem covers diversified assets such as U.S. stocks, CFDs, and cryptocurrencies, providing users with a wide range of cross-market asset allocation channels.

Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, following a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, as the market's rebound momentum from February's lows showed signs of cooling. The U.S. April non-farm payroll data added 115,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Although the overall data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty; instead, it reinforced expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the space for interest rate cuts."In terms of capital flow, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous cumulative inflow of $1.69 billion; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have escalated again, prompting the market to reprice the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in oil prices, which partially offset the support that previous risk assets received from the decline in oil prices.The derivatives market shows a more long-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in over a 50% probability of rate hikes beyond 2027, suggesting that the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028. On-chain data indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining relatively low, and funding rates maintaining a moderate level, resulting in a weak market momentum structure. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of testing the support range of $75,000 to $78,000.

QCP Group analysis indicates that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have once again broken down, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, and the overall geopolitical landscape remains static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with Trump suspected to be the target. After the Asian market opened, BTC briefly surpassed $79,000 and ETH broke through $2,400, but concerns arose following news of the Iranian foreign minister's visit to Russia for talks with Putin, leading to a rapid pullback in gains.The current key resistance level in the market is the CME gap around $82,000. The funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts continues to be negative, and if the price breaks upward, it may trigger short covering. Implied volatility continues to decline, and the risk reversal skew has narrowed, with market interest in upward exposure gradually increasing. Key focus this week: April 29 earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision; April 30 earnings report from Apple, U.S. Q1 GDP, and March PCE data.

According to The Block, despite the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran disrupting expectations in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fluctuations in the oil, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday.Analysts stated that the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week was $996.4 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, with institutional demand providing support for the market. However, the current market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances continuing to grow, indicating that liquidity in the crypto market is more rotating internally rather than flowing out.

QCP's latest market view states that as controversies surrounding the Iran-related ceasefire agreement resurface, the market's pricing for a de-escalation of the situation has quickly reversed. U.S. crude oil rebounded 8% after a drop last Friday, while crypto assets weakened in tandem, with BTC falling to $74,000 and ETH dipping to around $2,300.QCP pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the U.S. is reportedly preparing to engage in a second round of negotiations with Iran in Pakistan, but it remains uncertain whether Iran will participate. Despite the pullback in spot prices, implied volatility is still close to this year's lows, indicating that the market is more inclined to price the duration of the conflict rather than its intensity. The market is also paying attention to Kevin Warsh, who will testify tomorrow on interest rates and the economic outlook before the Senate Banking Committee.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index reached a record high during Wednesday's trading session, marking the first new high since the outbreak of the Iran war. The market's expectations for a de-escalation of the war situation and strong earnings forecasts have attracted investors back to risk assets. Despite the ongoing geopolitical crisis, there has been a shift in market risk pricing, with traders more willing to factor in lower escalation risks in the short term. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 index had fallen as much as 9%, but did not meet the criteria for confirming a "technical adjustment."

According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed the overnight rebound of risk assets, rising to the mid-range of $74,000, triggered by the news of a preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran. However, long-term yields remained almost unchanged, gold maintained high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a relief from headline risks rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.The core contradiction lies in the uranium enrichment issue—Iran is currently enriching at 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. Iran has yet to signal any compromise, and this issue has been unresolved since 2015. In terms of market structure, BTC spot is slowly rising against a backdrop of negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that shorts are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has failed to confirm a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still lower than three-month volatility, with demand for downside protection still stronger than the willingness to chase upside.On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's net rate cut space for this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market activity is essentially a geopolitical-driven relief rebound rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market needs to be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.

Bitwise Asset Management points out that the recent strength of Bitcoin is not contrary to a risk-averse environment, but is directly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Since the escalation of the situation in the Middle East at the end of February, BTC has risen by about 12%, while the S&P 500 index has fallen by about 1% and gold has dropped by about 10%, showing a clear divergence in performance.Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and research director Ryan Rasmussen state that Bitcoin is simultaneously embodying two logics: "store of value asset" and "potential international settlement currency." As the financial system becomes "weaponized" and the global payment system fractures, the appeal of non-sovereign neutral assets continues to rise. The report suggests that geopolitical fragmentation is prompting some countries to explore alternative paths to bypass the traditional financial system, such as attempting to introduce Bitcoin settlements in trade. This trend enhances BTC's potential position in the global monetary system. Based on the aforementioned changes, Bitwise indicates that the Bitcoin valuation framework is being reshaped; if it captures both store of value and transaction settlement demand, long-term price expectations may be underestimated, and $1 million could shift from a target ceiling to a "benchmark level."

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.

According to Jinshi reports, due to Trump's order to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have surged, U.S. stock index futures have fallen, and the dollar has strengthened. This escalation of the situation occurred after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement in negotiations in Pakistan, which may leave investors feeling disappointed. Elias Haddad, the global market strategy director at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated that this move is bound to rekindle risk aversion this week. Investors are focused on the upcoming first-quarter earnings season, anticipating insights from corporate leadership on the increasing risks.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

The "contract whale" (@Jason60704294) posted on social media that it is currently a good time to position in technology assets and cryptocurrency spot assets. He believes that in the context of geopolitical disturbances, high-quality assets often provide a low-entry window, rather than waiting to chase high prices after risks have dissipated.His core judgment is that the probability of further escalation of geopolitical conflicts is limited, so he has been gradually building positions over the past month and has set key risk levels around $67,500. He emphasized that investment should focus on trends and cycles, and there is no need to pursue an absolute bottom; it is sufficient to complete positioning at relatively low levels within the cycle. With limited time and understanding, one should grasp a few key decisions.