safe-haven

In the context of widespread anti-government protests in Iran and the government's implementation of internet blackouts, local residents are accelerating the transfer of Bitcoin into personal wallets. Blockchain analysis company Chainalysis points out that since the protests began and during the internet outages, there has been a significant increase in BTC withdrawal transactions from local exchanges to unknown personal wallets, indicating that the public is self-custodying Bitcoin with greater frequency during times of social unrest.Chainalysis believes that this behavior is closely related to the significant devaluation of the Iranian rial. Data shows that the exchange rate of the rial against the dollar dropped from about 420,000 to over 1,050,000 in a short period, leading to a rapid loss of purchasing power. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is seen as an important tool to hedge against currency collapse and economic instability due to its decentralized, censorship-resistant, and cross-border transfer characteristics. The report also notes that this trend is consistent with other regions globally experiencing war, economic crises, or government repression. Additionally, Chainalysis revealed that addresses associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accounted for over 50% of the total crypto asset receipts in Iran in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annual on-chain processing amount exceeding $3 billion.

According to Jin Shi reports, the foreign exchange market saw increased volatility on Friday as the stock market faced sell-offs, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. The UK's budget proposal this month will not raise income tax, which has pressured the pound. Traders believe that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is much lower than expectations a few weeks ago, leading to a sell-off of highly valued U.S. stocks and government bonds, with funds flowing into the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The latest market data shows that the dollar has fallen 0.5% against the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the Japanese yen.

According to Ming Pao, Eric Trump, the son of U.S. President Donald Trump, stated in an interview with "Yahoo Finance Invest" that Bitcoin has become the strongest asset of this era, and he believes it has advantages over traditional hard assets like real estate.Eric Trump believes that Bitcoin offers advantages such as 24-hour trading and low fees, which traditional hard assets cannot match. He thinks that whether it's to hedge against inflation, combat corruption, or counter the chaos of global monetary policies, Bitcoin can serve as an important option for investors seeking safety.When asked why American Bitcoin, the Bitcoin mining company owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, can mine at such low costs, Eric Trump stated that the main reason is the decline in energy prices in the U.S. in recent years. The company operates in West Texas, taking advantage of the extremely low electricity costs to mine Bitcoin 24 hours a day, with costs being about half of the market price. He also pointed out that mining with domestic energy in the U.S. is the foundation of a company's global competitiveness.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, this week gold futures prices have once again surpassed the $3,900 per troy ounce mark. Saxo Bank analyst Hansen stated that the U.S. government shutdown has injected new safe-haven demand for precious metals. In a report, he mentioned that typically, during holiday periods in some parts of Asia, physical demand tends to ease, and there is usually a risk of price pullback, but this time it has not occurred.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the Asian spot gold has historically broken through 3,800 USD, reaching as high as 3,812 USD. Analysts believe this is mainly driven by safe-haven demand, due to reasons including Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks on Kyiv, the close attention on U.S. military generals' closed-door meetings in Virginia, and investors preparing for a potential U.S. government shutdown that could affect Friday's non-farm payroll report. In addition, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also increasing, providing potential support.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a briefing indicating that the market focus has shifted from the rate cuts themselves to the issue of Federal Reserve independence. Analysis shows that the market is pricing in a higher term premium at the long end while lowering the threshold for a dollar down cycle. Against this backdrop, even with the implementation of easing policies, the yield curve tends to steepen, the dollar weakens, and gold and Bitcoin gain support as investors seek to hedge against inflation and governance risks.After the Jackson Hole meeting, rate cuts are still seen as possible, although inflation is unlikely to quickly return to the 2% target. The market expects two rate cuts this year, but new tariffs may raise inflation expectations, which is worth noting.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data, there has been noticeable unrest in the currency markets as Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, McIntyre, and was accused of attempting to manipulate economic data. Meanwhile, the independence of the Federal Reserve is also facing ongoing attacks from the government.ANZ stated in a report that financial markets place a high value on the independence of statistical data, and the firing of McIntyre "can certainly be seen as yet another move to undermine the United States' status as a safe haven in the global economy."

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, recent academic research has explored the relationship between Bitcoin and gold as stores of value. The study found that although Bitcoin is referred to as "digital gold," it currently lacks the historical record, stability, and resilience in crises that gold possesses.Bitcoin's volatility is significantly higher than that of gold, and its correlation with traditional assets is unstable. Nevertheless, as the Bitcoin market matures and volatility decreases, its role as a portfolio diversification tool may strengthen.

ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform today, stating that the current market weakness is only a temporary phenomenon. As central banks around the world continue to expand the scale of money printing under the guise of "national interests," the value of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset will become increasingly evident, and its status will ultimately be widely recognized by the market.

ChainCatcher news, Deutsche Bank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen pointed out in a report that the recent appreciation of the dollar due to the Israel-Iran conflict may primarily stem from the rebound in oil prices rather than its safe-haven currency role. The dollar benefits from rising oil prices, as this improves the ratio of export to import prices, i.e., the U.S. trade conditions. Thanks to technological breakthroughs from the shale oil revolution, the U.S. has now become one of the largest crude oil producers in the world.It is worth noting that the dollar did not show a broad strengthening trend last Friday; instead, it recorded declines against the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, which are more dependent on oil economies. Analysts emphasized that this phenomenon precisely explains why, as oil prices retraced some of last Friday's gains, the dollar index also experienced a pullback.

ChainCatcher news, on Monday's Asian morning, gold prices rose slightly due to geopolitical tensions that may stimulate safe-haven demand. Israel and Iran intensified airstrikes over the weekend, while U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. "could possibly" get involved in the conflict.Market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that gold has been rising under the influence of safe-haven funds. Razaqzada added, "Given the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the outlook for gold is undoubtedly still positive."

ChainCatcher news, according to a report by Wall Street Watch, "new bond king" Gundlach stated on Wednesday that the U.S. debt burden and interest expenses have become unsustainable, which means that long-term U.S. Treasuries are no longer considered truly risk-free investments. He compared the current market environment to the situation before the bursting of the internet bubble in 1999 and before the global financial crisis in 2006 to 2007.He suggested that investors should consider increasing their allocation to non-dollar assets and revealed that his managed company is beginning to incorporate foreign currencies into its funds.

ChainCatcher news, the Chief Economist of Bank of Singapore, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, stated in a research report that the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating last Friday has widespread implications for its economic outlook.First, the deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. reinforces the view that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise over time. The bank continues to predict that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 5.00% in the next 12 months. Second, the threat to the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries highlights the bank's belief that the dollar has already peaked. Finally, the massive U.S. deficit and inflation may force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi Data reports, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist of the Bank of Singapore, stated in a research report that the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating last Friday has widespread implications for its economic outlook. First, the deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. reinforces our view that long-term U.S. Treasury yields will rise over time. The bank continues to predict that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 5.00% in the next 12 months. Second, the threat to the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries highlights the bank's belief that the dollar has already peaked. Finally, the massive U.S. deficit and inflation may force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

ChainCatcher news, according to Decrypt, JPMorgan's latest report indicates that the safe-haven narrative of Bitcoin has not reached its mythical status. Amid recent market fluctuations caused by President Trump's global trade war, investors are more inclined to put their funds into gold. Analysts at the investment bank stated in a report on Thursday that as speculators seek safer investments, gold ETFs and futures are attracting most of the investment. This week, gold prices even hit a historic high of $3,660 per ounce. In contrast, Bitcoin has fallen over 20% since reaching a record of $109,000 on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration, and is currently hovering around $85,000.The report released on Thursday noted: "Bitcoin has failed to benefit from the influx of safe-haven funds in recent months like gold has. While investors are pouring into gold ETFs, speculators are cashing out from new U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs." However, geopolitical uncertainty, President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, and concerns about an economic recession are prompting investors to turn to the ultimate safe-haven asset: gold.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, there are market rumors that European financial regulators are questioning the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasury bonds.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts at JPMorgan have stated that safe-haven demand is driving up gold prices, while Bitcoin has failed to benefit from this.In a report released on Wednesday, a team of analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, investors seeking safe havens are driving funds into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the futures market.In contrast, Bitcoin has been left behind. Analysts noted that speculative interest in the Bitcoin futures market is waning, and ETFs have seen consecutive outflows.