betting

Polymarket platform data shows that the market bets an 80% probability that edgeX's FDV will exceed 300 million USD on the day after its launch, a 57% probability for exceeding 400 million USD, a 36% probability for exceeding 500 million USD, and a 19% probability for exceeding 600 million USD.According to previous news, edgeX will launch its TGE tonight at 20:30, and the official Twitter account has currently closed the comments section.

According to CNN, citing multiple sources, federal prosecutors in Manhattan, New York, are investigating whether some high-yield bets in prediction markets violate insider trading and other laws.According to insiders, the head of the Securities and Commodities Fraud Unit of the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York recently met with representatives from Polymarket to discuss how existing laws might apply to potential misconduct in this rapidly evolving industry. The U.S. Department of Justice is focusing on those high-profile high-yield bets, marking an escalation in regulatory scrutiny of the industry. Over the past year, the prediction market industry has rapidly expanded with relatively limited federal oversight.

According to The Block, Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs jointly funded the newly established political action committee "Blockchain Leadership Fund," marking Anchorage Digital's first involvement in PAC financing.The fund plans to support candidates who promote digital asset and blockchain policies ahead of the midterm elections and actively engage in voter education. Currently, the U.S. Congress's cryptocurrency legislative process is stalled, with the Senate Banking Committee still at odds with the banking industry over stablecoin reward regulation issues. Meanwhile, the crypto advocacy organization Stand With Crypto has also launched a legislator digital asset position scoring system to continue building momentum for the industry ahead of the 2026 elections.

According to market news, bond traders are panicking over the possibility of further escalation in the Iran conflict and are seeking to hedge against the worst-case scenario of war consequences—namely, that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates in the coming weeks.In the options market tracking Federal Reserve policy, demand for bets linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has emerged, corresponding to scenarios of interest rate hikes as early as within two weeks. If the bond market significantly raises interest rate hike expectations before the Federal Reserve policy meeting on April 29, these trades will profit. This surge in hedging demand for emergency rate hikes marks a sharp reversal in market sentiment.Jeff Schuh, head of the rates department at Constitution Capital, stated that while the latest bets do not reflect the market's baseline scenario, they do indicate growing concerns: rapidly rising inflation will pose risks to investors who have been long on U.S. Treasuries in recent months. Currently, the interest rate swap market only accounts for a 3 basis point hike at the April 29 policy meeting, with a 12% probability of a 25 basis point increase.

According to the official announcement, the Huobi HTX "全民龙虾交易赛" will officially start on March 26 from 20:00 to 22:00. Special invited AI trading experts will compete with their exclusive AI players in a 2-hour racing showdown to validate their strategies in real trading.This competition has three major awards for the champion, runner-up, and third place. The champion will receive a reward of 1000U equivalent in $HTX, the runner-up 500U, and the third place 200U. The competition results will be evaluated based on a combination of profit amount ranking (weight 60%) and return rate ranking (weight 40%). At the same time, Huobi HTX will provide each participant with a loss reimbursement of up to 200U equivalent in $HTX and a subsidy for large model calls of up to 50U equivalent in $HTX, helping AI players to compete at full strength.Regular users can also win prizes! Log in to the Huobi HTX App and enter the event page to participate in the champion prediction. If you guess correctly, you can share a prize pool of 100U equivalent in $HTX. The entire event will be live-streamed, with real-time analysis of AI orders and opening and closing strategies. During the breaks, users can easily copy strategies by one-click following excellent traders and share in the trading benefits of experts.Follow the official Huobi HTX live broadcast room and lock in on March 26 at 8 PM to witness the peak showdown of AI competition.

The probability of Polymarket betting that the FDV of the Backpack token on its launch day will exceed $300 million has dropped to 58%, the probability of exceeding $200 million is 91%, the probability of exceeding $100 million is 99%, and the probability of breaking $500 million is about 13%.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that for the week ending March 9, Polymarket and Kalshi set all-time highs in nominal trading volume, reaching $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively. Dune data indicates that the continued growth in trading activity has driven the total nominal trading volume of all prediction markets to $14.5 billion, with the number of unique users reaching 2.8 million.Meanwhile, U.S. Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has introduced the "DEATH BETS Act," which aims to amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to explicitly prohibit federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination, and personal death. Previously, six Polymarket traders faced insider trading allegations after profiting $1 million from accurately betting on a U.S. attack on Iran.

According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, Polymarket is hiring companies including Palantir Technologies to help regulate its sports contract trading. This move is particularly noteworthy as the prediction market faces increasing scrutiny over insider trading issues.Informed sources stated that Palantir Technologies and TWG AI will assist Polymarket in identifying, preventing, and reporting suspicious activities. These individuals requested anonymity as the information has not been made public.They also mentioned that the measures include screening participants to cross-check against existing lists to confirm whether individuals who have been banned from participating in sports betting are attempting to trade on the platform.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, about an hour ago, someone created a new wallet (0xe074...10e2) and spent $25,676 betting that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz before March 31.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader named majorexploiter spent 4.53 million USDC 9 hours ago betting on Arsenal Football Club to win on March 1, 2026, and earned a profit of 2.42 million dollars.Data shows that he made 3 related bets in less than 3 days, all of which were profitable, with a total profit of approximately 3.67 million dollars.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of the market for "Khamenei will step down as Iran's Supreme Leader before March 31" has sharply risen to 93% today, an increase of 85 percentage points from before, with a total market trading volume of $30.43 million.

According to monitoring by the blockchain data analysis platform Bubblemaps, six suspected insiders placed bets hours before the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran, profiting approximately $1.2 million.Most of these wallets received funding in the past 24 hours, specifically targeting bets placed on February 28, and bought the "yes" option hours before the attack occurred.

According to Bloomberg, the UK Gambling Commission is planning to assess the feasibility of allowing gamblers to use cryptocurrencies for betting payments, a move that aligns with the UK's push for a regulatory framework for digital assets.The report states that the Financial Conduct Authority is expected to finalize regulations related to crypto assets this year, with plans for them to come into effect by the end of 2027. UK betting companies may be able to apply for crypto business licenses under the new regulatory system in the future.Tim Miller, Director of Research and Policy at the UK Gambling Commission, stated that the relevant exploration will be incorporated into the broader regulatory process for digital assets.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, many insiders have made huge profits by betting on Polymarket that ZachXBT will expose which cryptocurrency company is involved in insider trading. A total of 12 suspected insider wallet addresses have been identified, which have collectively profited $1.02 million.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, an anonymous trader used a new wallet to bet $50,700, wagering that Axiom would be charged with insider trading, with odds of only 15.1%. This sparked speculation about their potential possession of insider information.Subsequently, many traders followed suit, causing Axiom's odds to even surpass those of Meteora. After closing the position, the trader made a profit of $39,000 within a day.

According to Jinshi News, after the release of the latest economic data, U.S. short-term interest rate futures showed little change, with traders still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in June.