betting

According to Cointelegraph, a recent poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos shows that a majority of American respondents oppose betting on U.S. elections and other government actions through prediction markets. The survey indicates that 69% of Democratic respondents and 61% of Republican respondents oppose using prediction markets to bet on election outcomes. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 5, covering 4,506 adults nationwide.Aside from elections, even regarding betting on professional sports events, 43% of respondents expressed opposition, while only 29% indicated support. The prediction market industry is currently dominated by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to bet on U.S. elections, government policy trends, and sports events, and has sparked multiple lawsuits regarding regulatory authority.The Trump administration is pushing for federal regulation of the industry through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while several states have expressed opposition to this. Previously, on October 8, Cointelegraph reported that 39 states and the District of Columbia submitted an amicus brief, indicating that the conflict between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market issues has created a "national turf war" that cannot be resolved without a Supreme Court ruling.

According to Philippine crypto media BitPinas, in response to CoinDesk's previous report regarding Coinsph facing the risk of license revocation due to alleged involvement in offshore betting transactions, the Philippine crypto trading platform Coinsph stated that its virtual asset service provider (VASP) license under Betur Inc. and the electronic money issuance (EMI) license of DCPay Philippines are currently both valid, and it denies providing services to non-compliant offshore betting operators.Coinsph stated that the restrictions imposed by the Philippine central bank only involve fiat currency top-ups to DCPay through InstaPay and PESONet, while cryptocurrency trading, withdrawals, and other payment services are still operating normally. The company also acknowledged that the central bank has requested it to improve its internal control measures and is currently cooperating with regulatory requirements. The Philippine central bank declined to comment on specific regulatory matters.

According to Bloomberg, the New Taipei District Court in Taiwan has authorized Taiwan's communication regulatory agency and internet registration agency to block domestic access to Coinbase and the prediction market platform Kalshi, due to allegations of providing election betting services.This blockage occurs a few weeks before the local elections in Taiwan, which will test the public support for President Lai Ching-te's government. Some Coinbase users in Taiwan have reported that they have been unable to access the platform normally since Wednesday.

According to on-chain investigator vxdb, the cryptocurrency exchange platform Gamdom is suspected to have been hacked, involving a total asset value of approximately 4.208 million USD.In terms of losses by chain, EVM networks such as Ethereum, BNB Chain, Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism account for about 2.2 million USD, Solana approximately 965,000 USD, TRON around 375,000 USD, and Bitcoin about 668,000 USD.On-chain tracking shows that some of the stolen funds have been transferred to platforms such as Hyperliquid and THORChain through cross-chain bridges and token exchanges.

According to Bitcoin.com analysis, the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi saw a single-day nominal trading volume of up to $3.9 billion over the weekend, with combo bets contributing about 70% of the weekend's nominal trading volume.The analysis also pointed out that nominal trading volume measures the face value scale of contracts and does not equate to the actual cash invested by buyers, nor does it represent the number of new users on the platform. Therefore, this metric cannot directly reflect Kalshi's actual capital inflow or user growth situation.

Palantir's Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar stated in an interview on CBS News' "Face the Nation" that many AI researchers have started smoking to demonstrate their confidence in AI to other researchers. He quoted the attitude of such researchers saying, "I truly believe in AI; it will cure cancer, so I’m showing you that I’m all in." Sankar did not name any specific researcher nor cite survey data; this statement was made in passing when host Margaret Brennan pressed him on why he was so focused on the topic.In the interview, Sankar referred to effective altruism as a "millennial-style doomsday cult" and mentioned FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried as the most well-known representative of the movement. He also cited Pascal's idea that everyone has a "God-shaped hole" in their heart, claiming that some researchers are trying to fill this hole with a machine god called AGI.Medical data contrasts with this claim. The U.S. CDC states that smoking causes about one-third of cancer deaths in the U.S., and cigarette smoke contains at least 69 known carcinogenic chemicals, with smokers being about 25 times more likely to develop lung cancer than non-smokers. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei stated in August that the promise of AI curing cancer is "more of a cliché than inspiring," and that only a true cure for cancer can win public trust. CBS polling shows that 50% of Americans believe the problems created by AI outweigh the problems it solves, and 45% want the government to limit the use and development of AI.

According to The Block, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is conducting an early review of the online sports betting industry, focusing on allegations of false or misleading advertising by betting companies such as FanDuel and DraftKings. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to be outside the scope of the review.

According to Politico, citing three informed sources, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, related to his trading on the prediction market platform Kalshi. The relevant trades occurred between December 2024 and January 2025, completed through a Kalshi account associated with Kinzinger. He confirmed to the media that he had placed bets on contracts regarding whether he would receive a presidential pardon, while also betting on another contract about whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.In the final moments before Biden left office in January 2025, he issued preemptive pardons to Kinzinger and other members of the House Select Committee investigating the Capitol riot. Screenshots provided by Kinzinger show that he made a profit of $823 from approximately 25 trades, most of which were losses. He denied any wrongdoing, stating that he had been out of office for two years at the time of the bets, was neither a congressman nor a candidate, and had "no insider information." He also stated that he had read Kalshi's rules in advance and understood that they prohibit users from trading contracts directly related to their own interests. Kalshi prohibits users from betting on contracts in which they are direct participants, and the CFTC also prohibits the use of significant non-public information in its regulated markets.Kalshi had previously handled similar cases, suspending three congressional candidates in April for betting on their own campaigns, and freezing former Congressman George Santos's account, which was referred to the CFTC and the Department of Justice, leading to a lifetime ban at the end of August.

The stablecoin giant Tether's Tether AI Research today released QVAC Genesis III, a synthetic training dataset aimed at the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, with a scale of 19.143 billion tokens, covering 159.6 million documents.It is reported that Tether hopes to enhance the reasoning and teaching capabilities of small AI models, allowing more AI assistants to run directly on laptops, mobile phones, and local servers, reducing the ongoing reliance on large cloud models.Genesis III continues the data lineage of Genesis I and Genesis II, covering 19 curriculum-related fields including biology, chemistry, physics, mathematics, computer science, medicine, electrical engineering, and machine learning, aimed at high school, university, and professional applications. Tether states that the dataset will focus on training models to explain problem-solving paths, identify erroneous reasoning, and provide corrections, rather than just outputting final answers.According to Tether's disclosed test results, a 1.7 billion parameter model trained with Genesis III option-level data achieved an effective answer rate of 99.45% in relevant benchmark tests. Compared to the Cosmopedia-v2 training model of similar token scale, Genesis III improved scores on the ARC-Easy, ARC-Challenge, and MMLU STEM benchmarks by 28.57, 21.35, and 15.03 percentage points, respectively.

According to The Information, citing informed sources, DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng listed training large models with domestic chips such as those from Huawei as one of the company's biggest bets at the latest closed-door investor meeting, stating that this must succeed. DeepSeek expects to receive a new batch of Huawei chips for training as early as the fourth quarter of this year, although the specific models and quantities have not been disclosed.Liang Wenfeng believes that Huawei chips are expected to catch up with Nvidia in just a few years and hopes that DeepSeek will adapt to hardware beyond Nvidia in advance. DeepSeek is still using Nvidia chips to train models. In May of this year, Liang Wenfeng estimated that training the top-tier large models would require about 50,000 Nvidia GB300 chips, while switching to Huawei Ascend 950 would require about 200,000 chips, with the biggest issue at that time being insufficient supply from Huawei.

Cryptocurrency trader Bonk Guy stated that a few days ago he posted to explain his shift towards a positive outlook on the Solana ecosystem, as he observed relevant leaders making cultural changes that he believes are beneficial for the long-term development of the ecosystem. Therefore, he bought the first Solana ecosystem token in a long time, and his next significant bet is on EMBER and its ecosystem.

According to Decrypt, Judge Rosemarie Aquilina of the Ingham County Circuit Court in Michigan has issued a preliminary injunction against the prediction market platform Kalshi, requiring it to stop offering sports betting-related contracts to Michigan residents. The court found that Kalshi's related business is essentially "sports betting disguised as investment opportunities."Under the order, Kalshi must block in-state users through a third-party geolocation service licensed by the Michigan betting regulatory agency, or face a daily fine of $500,000. The injunction also prohibits it from allowing account registration, deposits, advertising, and similar sports betting product features for Michigan residents until a final judgment is made in the case.

Tom Lee stated during his appearance on CNBC: "I believe that there are actually very few people who truly hold cryptocurrencies. Because of this, I think Bitcoin can easily break through six figures (like over $100,000), but it may also be affected by interest rate hikes. As for how cryptocurrencies will perform, I think this will be a good test, but we have already seen long-term yields (interest rates) rising. So, if we see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates while long-term yields actually decline, that would essentially mean monetary easing. Therefore, the key may be how long-term yields respond to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes."He also added: "I think this is just the first wave of the rise because this round of cryptocurrency market has caught many people off guard. Well, I believe institutional investors are buying stocks related to cryptocurrencies, and this is very obvious—trading volume has surged significantly, which signals that they are betting on a big market in the fourth quarter. I think $150,000 is still possible, well, it's actually not that far from now."

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to over $77,000 last week, liquidating approximately $3 billion in leveraged short positions, major crypto market makers such as Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute quietly established short positions in perpetual contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid.Lookonchain data shows that the three institutions collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million); meanwhile, Abraxas Capital withdrew 73,872 ETH (approximately $173 million) from Binance in the past four days.This strategy is known as cash arbitrage or basis trading: traders hold spot positions while shorting an equivalent amount of assets through perpetual contracts to hedge against price volatility risks, primarily earning the funding rates paid by longs to shorts. In previous months, funding rates were long suppressed or even turned negative, but this month's rebound has quickly turned funding rates positive, reopening the arbitrage window. Aegis data shows that the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on August 24 reached an annualized 6.7%, with a 7-day average of 8.7%; 21shares capital markets noted that basis trading for mainstream assets like Solana is also becoming lucrative.This trading has extended to regulated markets: Glassnode data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen from about 87,000 BTC to 122,000 BTC.

According to The Block, the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the prediction market platform Kalshi failed to prove that federal regulations take precedence over Nevada's regulatory authority over sports betting, and Kalshi is not entitled to an injunction.Previously, the Nevada Gaming Control Board had issued a cease and desist order to Kalshi, requiring it to stop conducting contract trading related to elections and sporting events in the state, threatening to initiate criminal or civil proceedings. Subsequently, Kalshi sued the Gaming Control Board and the state, seeking a preliminary injunction to prevent Nevada from regulating its trading of sports and election event contracts. The district court initially granted the injunction but later revoked it following a ruling against Crypto.com. However, the appellate court stated on Friday: "We find that Kalshi has failed to demonstrate that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) likely takes precedence over state gaming regulations when applied to its sports event contracts, and we also find that the district court's decision to revoke the injunction did not abuse its discretion." The panel of judges stated: "The en banc court finds that the Commodity Exchange Act likely does not take precedence over Nevada's gaming regulations when applied to Kalshi's sports event contracts."

RockawayX manages approximately $2 billion in assets and is seeking to raise $150 million for a new liquidity opportunity fund. RockawayX previously acquired the crypto hedge fund Relayer Capital. Relayer Capital founder and former CoinFund partner Austin Barack will continue to serve at RockawayX and will be responsible for managing the fund.The fund will focus on investing in undervalued tokens and crypto-related stocks. Recently, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have all seen increases of over 20% in the past week. Meanwhile, crypto venture capital firms such as Paradigm and Framework Ventures are incorporating fields like AI and robotics into their investment strategies.