dovi

According to Jinshi News, FXEM analyst Abdelaziz Albogdady stated that although the dollar has stabilized after falling to multi-year lows, it still faces downside risks. The weakness of the dollar is mainly due to Trump's comments signaling tolerance for currency depreciation, raising concerns that Trump may nominate a more dovish Federal Reserve chairman, which would imply looser monetary policy and decreased institutional independence. Coupled with widespread unease over domestic political risks in the United States, the dollar remains under pressure. Any dovish tendencies could exacerbate the downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

According to CoinDesk, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this Wednesday.The key focus of this meeting is the statement from Fed Chairman Powell during the post-meeting press conference, as his remarks may provide directional guidance for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The core concern for the market is whether this pause in rate cuts will be interpreted as a "hawkish pause" or a "dovish pause." If Powell emphasizes inflation risks, it could dampen rate cut expectations and put pressure on risk assets; conversely, if he suggests that the pause in rate cuts is temporary and opens the door for resuming cuts in the coming months, it could boost risk assets like Bitcoin.Additionally, if officials appointed by Trump cast dissenting votes on the decision to maintain interest rates, it could strengthen market expectations for future easing policies. Powell's explanation for the decision to maintain rates may provide support for the dollar, thereby putting pressure on Bitcoin priced in dollars. He may also be asked about the Trump administration's recent housing affordability measures (which could raise short-term inflation), the judicial investigations targeting him personally, and the bond market volatility triggered by Japan, as these statements could exacerbate market fluctuations.

According to Jinshi, the Federal Reserve has released the minutes of its last interest rate decision meeting of the year, confirming that FOMC members are willing to consider further rate cuts. The minutes show that the Fed's stance is leaning towards dovish, with most rate setters willing to explore the possibility of further rate cuts, but any policy adjustments will still depend on weak inflation data.

Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee recently stated in an interview with CNBC that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish monetary policy in 2026, which is expected to boost business confidence and drive the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index back above 50, benefiting traditional industries such as industrials, energy, and basic materials. Lee believes that the financial services industry will see a reduction in employee density and an increase in profit margins due to AI and blockchain applications, predicting that leading banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs may behave more like tech stocks, with the potential to become the next batch of "tech giants." Although the market may experience significant volatility in 2026, Lee pointed out that historical data shows that after three consecutive years of over 20% gains, there is a 50% chance of better performance in the fourth year. He warned that the main risk lies in excessive complacency, but the current cautious attitude of investors may help mitigate this issue.

According to Jin Ten, analyst Anstey stated that U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded from earlier lows, and the gains in stock index futures have also been quite limited since the CPI data was released. Investors are considering that there is still a long way to go before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28. U.S. interest rate strategist Ira Jersey mentioned that low levels of CPI year-on-year data will make it easier for the doves within the Federal Reserve to argue that further rate cuts should be implemented if the economic data in December is weak.

According to CoinDesk, during the early trading session on Wednesday in the U.S., cryptocurrency prices surged significantly, with Bitcoin prices returning to above $90,000. Factors that may be favorable for the market include:Metal prices continue to rise sharply, with silver up about 5%, reaching a new high of over $66 per ounce, while gold and copper prices have also increased by more than 1%.A leading candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, current Fed Governor Chris Waller, made dovish remarks in a public speech, suggesting that the neutral federal funds rate should be 50-100 basis points lower than the current level.He also added that the current job growth in the U.S. is close to zero, and inflation is not expected to rebound. Currently, the major U.S. stock indices are relatively unchanged in early trading, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points to 4.15%.

According to Jinshi reports, as Federal Reserve Governor Waller made dovish remarks, the decline in U.S. Treasury bonds has narrowed.

According to Jinshi Data, Investinglive analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made more dovish comments than expected at the FOMC press conference, providing support for gold prices. He downplayed inflation risks and emphasized the weakness in the labor market, suggesting that the Fed's tolerance for higher inflation is greater than its tolerance for a weak labor market.This week's focus is on the U.S. non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Currently, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 57 basis points by the end of 2026. If U.S. economic data is strong, particularly in the labor market, we may see a hawkish adjustment in market rate expectations, leading to a decline in gold prices.On the other hand, weak data should further support precious metal prices, as the market will bet on rate cuts in advance. From a more macro perspective, due to the Fed's dovish reaction mechanism, real yields may continue to decline, so gold prices should maintain an upward trend. However, in the short term, further hawkish adjustments in rate expectations may put pressure on the market.

According to Jin Ten, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed concerns about the labor market yesterday, Wall Street is increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates two times or more in 2026.Scott Helfstein of Global X stated that a dovish Federal Reserve should overall benefit risk assets, especially growth stocks and cyclical stocks. He pointed out that as borrowing rates decline, industries related to the corporate investment cycle may also be in a favorable position.

According to Jin Ten, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that the 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, as the rate cut has long been anticipated, and the economic forecast remains optimistic. He believes this statement reflects a dovish yet cautious stance, noting that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach and is still waiting for more economic data to emerge, especially observing the evolution of the labor market, while inflation levels remain high.

According to Jinshi reports, the dollar remained steady ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement and Chairman Powell's speech. The market expects a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and anticipates two more rate cuts next year. Tickmill's Joseph Dahrieh stated that if Powell signals any inclination towards a more dovish policy path, it could put downward pressure on the dollar and long-term yields.

According to Jin Ten, Bank of America strategists warn that if the Federal Reserve takes an overly cautious stance on the economic outlook, it could jeopardize the year-end stock market rally. The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, and investors are hoping for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve alongside a decline in inflation. However, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett points out that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance in next week's meeting, this optimism will be tested, potentially indicating that the degree of economic slowdown is greater than expected.

According to Jinshi News, Murphy & Sylvest market strategist Paul Nolte stated that at the last Federal Reserve meeting, Powell mentioned that due to a lack of economic data, the Fed would remain cautious at the next meeting. Subsequently, comments from several Fed officials shifted the stance from "no action in December" to "we need to cut rates in December due to severe weakness in the labor market." Nolte added that the next Fed chair may lean dovish, which has led the market to feel optimistic about a downward trend in interest rates by 2026.

QCP's briefing indicates that after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials Williams and Miran on Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown initial signs of recovery. The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has significantly risen from 30-40% last Thursday to 75%. Although BTC has recently dropped over 30% and broken through several key support levels, the technical outlook remains weak, but the derivatives market shows that traders are betting on both sides: hedging against further declines while keeping exposure for a potential year-end rebound.The maximum pain point price for year-end contracts in the options market is 104K, with open interest reaching an all-time high. In the perpetual contract market, leveraged long positions have largely been cleared, and the funding rate has turned negative, which may alleviate further overselling risks. This week during Thanksgiving will test whether BTC's rebound is sustainable, and the market is also closely watching whether ETF fund flows will begin to reverse after several weeks of record outflows.

According to Jin Ten, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that current data supports interest rate cuts, which should make the Federal Reserve more dovish, not the other way around.

According to Jin Shi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Mester stated that the data since September indicates that the Federal Reserve's stance should be more dovish than in September.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Mester stated that it is reasonable to gradually shift to a more dovish stance.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve officials will collectively speak next week. Additionally, if the U.S. government shuts down on October 1, the employment report will not be released on time, which could directly affect the CPI and the Federal Reserve's October meeting. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time):Monday 20:00: 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a policy panel discussion;Tuesday 01:30: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams, and 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak;Tuesday 06:00: 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will have a dialogue with Delta Airlines CEO on topics including the Atlanta economy;Tuesday 18:00: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak;Wednesday 01:00: 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak;Wednesday 07:10: 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan will speak;Wednesday 08:30: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak;Thursday 22:30: 2026 FOMC voter, Dallas Fed President Logan will speak;Friday 18:05: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams will speak at the farewell seminar for Dutch central bank President Knot;Friday 20:30: U.S. September non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.