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BTC $62,667.22 -0.03%
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BNB $570.12 +0.29%
XRP $1.06 -0.76%
SOL $75.11 -1.11%
TRX $0.3245 -1.70%
DOGE $0.0719 -0.24%
ADA $0.1576 -0.90%
BCH $233.52 -1.11%
LINK $7.94 +0.08%
HYPE $63.23 -4.44%
AAVE $96.24 +1.69%
SUI $0.7248 -0.57%
XLM $0.1787 -2.47%
ZEC $505.44 -2.58%

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Article
Flash

Data: Short-term Bitcoin holders still dominate buying pressure, ETF funds have seen a return but the trend reversal cannot be confirmed

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the recently launched "Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model" shows that the buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is slightly cooling down, but buying power remains dominant. This model measures the changes in market bullish and bearish forces by comparing the realized buying pressure and selling pressure of short-term holders. During a bear market phase, this indicator can serve as a contrarian signal: when prices approach local lows, buyers are usually more active; when approaching local highs, selling pressure tends to increase. In the past 24 hours, the model has not shown any trend reversal signals. The latest hourly data shows that the buying pressure score is 28.57, slightly down from the previous day's 28.98; the selling pressure score is 22.62, a slight decrease from the previous 22.68. Currently, buyers are still leading sellers by about 5.94 percentage points.Overall, market buying pressure has cooled down, but short-term holders still maintain a buying advantage. Meanwhile, the funding situation in the Bitcoin ETF market has slightly improved. Following eight consecutive weeks of outflows, the ETF market recently recorded a net inflow of approximately $197.4 million. However, Adler pointed out that this scale is insufficient to confirm a reversal in institutional demand trends. Currently, the 30-day fund flow momentum for ETFs remains deeply negative, at about -$4.73 billion, and the cumulative fund size has fallen from a peak of about $62 billion to around $51 billion, indicating some improvement in short-term funds, but institutional buying demand has not fully recovered. Axel Adler expects that next week the market will face several important data and events, including further developments in the Middle East situation, the impact of the US-Iran conflict on energy supply, as well as earnings reports from major US banks, speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI), the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, retail sales, and real estate market data.

Analyst: Bitcoin may be entering the end of a bear market, expected to rise to $250,000 in the next two to three years

Real Vision's Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts stated that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of this bear market. Although the bear market has not ended, the downward momentum has begun to weaken. The current BTC price has fallen about 50% from the historical high of $126,100 set in October 2025. Coutts referred to the current trend as a "typical bear market" and pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous cycle, which suggests that this decline may not be as severe as the previous bear market. However, he cautioned that all current trend indicators are still clearly bearish, and the market will not mechanically replicate historical cycles.He noted that longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence, indicating that negative momentum is slowing down, but this does not mean that Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market. In addition to the tightening of global liquidity, the deterioration of on-chain demand has also been a significant reason for Bitcoin's decline. Regarding long-term price predictions, Coutts is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He prefers to predict that BTC will rise to between $200,000 and $250,000 in the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to more clearly address the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as significant protocol upgrades may take about five years.
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