fed

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket. A large whale sold $61,635.82 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 49%.

Former President Trump stated: The recently released employment data is fantastic, breaking all expectations (except mine!), with an increase reaching two to three times the forecast, and you haven't seen the full picture yet!American employers added 162,000 jobs in August. Lower the interest rates, because the credit situation in the U.S. is much stronger than it was not long ago! A strong country means lower interest rates because its credit situation is better... it's that simple!We should have the lowest interest rates in the world, just like in the "good old days." If the U.S. does not agree to allow these countries to enjoy huge trade surpluses, and we can stop that immediately, then they should no longer be considered financial "elite" countries! Lower the interest rates, or I will stop trading with those countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. The U.S. Supreme Court has already clearly recognized in that ridiculous and costly tariff ruling that the "President" has the absolute right to do so. This is better than tariffs!The Federal Reserve Board, under the leadership of this outstanding new leader, must become wise, think from a different perspective, and act like patriots. High interest rates put the U.S. at an extremely unfair disadvantage, and I will never allow this to happen!

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the US Dollar Index DXY rose sharply by 34 points, reaching 99.36 points. The market increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $52,267.36 in a single buy for the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 59.11%.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if the inflation data in August performs strongly, he will consider supporting an interest rate hike in September. Communication regarding the reaction function helps the public plan, and a significant acceleration in inflation may not be necessary to support a tighter policy stance.

Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate today at 20:00 titled "The Federal Reserve Cuts Forward Guidance: Regaining Independence or Triggering Market Panic?"The affirmative side representatives Li Qian, Guobao, Wanqu, and yuli will engage in dialogue with the negative side representatives Mr. Mis, Zizi, 0xmeg, and Qingfeng, focusing on the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve's weakening of forward guidance on policy transparency, market expectations, and asset pricing changes, as well as discussing how U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets will be repriced.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that the Fed should be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not decline.He warned that the inflation rate has remained above target for more than 5 years, and there is a risk of entrenched price pressures. Barr indicated that if upcoming data shows inflation is cooling, policymakers can afford to be patient.In a speech at an event in Washington on Tuesday, Barr said, "If the data trends give me confidence that inflation is easing and moving toward the 2% target, then I think we can take a little more time to assess the policy stance. But if inflation does not appear to be cooling sufficiently, then I think we should take decisive action to raise interest rates."

Bitfinex published an analysis stating that despite tightening macro conditions, Bitcoin remains steady above $77,100. Last week, after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole, BTC fell from above $81,000, but the rise in August was primarily driven by spot buying rather than excessive leverage—open interest gradually increased, the basis remained relatively restrained, and last week, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approached $1 billion, while Ethereum investment products saw a net inflow of $815.7 million for 10 consecutive days.On the macro front, U.S. PCE inflation is at 3.7%, core inflation at 3.3%, annualized private demand growth in Q2 is 4.2%, and the deficit for the first 10 months of this fiscal year reached $1.8 trillion. Warsh confirmed that the 2% inflation target is a hard constraint, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. Bitfinex believes that the continued support from ETF and stablecoin liquidity is sustaining prices, but expectations of interest rate hikes limit the upside potential. If crypto inflows remain resilient, it will prove that underlying demand is still solid.

This Friday, the United States will release non-farm payroll data, which will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Prior to this, CME's "FedWatch" shows that traders are betting on a probability of over 50% for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $80,000 mark, with BTC/USD dropping to $78,442 on the Bitstamp platform, a decline of about 1% for the day, after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh delivered a cautiously toned speech in Jackson Hole. In his speech, Walsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target and downplayed the significance of the recent decline in CPI and PCE data.Walsh stated that although these broad inflation indicators have significantly retreated from their highs a few years ago, the progress over the past two years has been relatively modest. The better-than-expected PCE and CPI readings this summer do not indicate that the underlying trend has materially improved. He also noted that the forward guidance, a conventional practice introduced during the financial crisis, "is now outdated" and will not return in the future. U.S. stocks were not weighed down by his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both rising by about 0.5%.On-chain data shows that there is a dense resistance zone between the current spot price and $86,000, which suppresses upward momentum. QCP Capital analysis pointed out that even if the price breaks through, the derivatives market needs to support it by controlling funding rates and the growth rate of open interest. The key is whether the subsequent market movement is driven by spot participation or leveraged positions. As of the time of writing, BTC/USD has risen 26.35% this month, marking the best August performance since 2017.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Waller emphasized in a highly anticipated speech that the Fed needs to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating some market concerns about its ability to combat inflation.During Waller's speech, short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, while long-term Treasuries rose. The yield on the two-year Treasury increased by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 5.19%. These changes indicate that the market expects the Fed may need to raise short-term rates. Since Waller held his first press conference in June, bond traders have had doubts about his policy stance. At that time, Waller emphasized the need to lower inflation and showed a hawkish stance.Since the global economy reopened from the pandemic in 2021, U.S. inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target. However, in July, the Fed again kept rates unchanged, and Waller did not indicate whether a rate hike might occur this year. Subsequently, long-term Treasury yields surged as traders demanded higher returns to compensate for the risks posed by rising inflation.Waller warned on Friday that inflation has not shown meaningful signs of slowing and stated that policymakers must be confident that inflation is improving; otherwise, the central bank "has work to do." He also reiterated that policymakers will bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target and emphasized that this goal is clear and fixed.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Federal Reserve September Decision" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the sub-market "No Change" option's winning probability has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 69.5% an hour ago to the current 54.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Gate market data, since Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech, spot gold and silver have significantly retreated in the short term. Gold rebounded slightly after falling about 100 dollars from its high, reaching a low of 4530 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 4560 dollars/ounce; silver plummeted over 1 dollar during the day, hitting a low of 68.1 dollars/ounce and currently reported at 69.0 dollars/ounce.