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A Reuters survey shows that 100 surveyed economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2026, while action may be paused in October.Among them, 94 expect that by the end of 2026, the federal funds rate will rise to 4.00% - 4.25%. In contrast, in the September survey, only 29 economists held this expectation out of 76 respondents.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, it predicts significant capital movements in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $65,184.25 in a single buy for the "Federal Reserve's October Decision" event, targeting "no change." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this subject is 86%.

Last week, U.S. tech stocks experienced a significant pullback, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4% for the week. The market is digesting stronger-than-expected inflation data while reassessing the narrative that "the economy cannot be crushed." The Federal Reserve has entered its quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting on October 28, with officials absent from public statements. This week, more attention will be on the earnings reports of tech giants and economic data, with Meta and Tesla set to announce their results, and the semiconductor and storage sectors also entering their earnings disclosure window.On the geopolitical front, Trump has suspended the full sanctions and tariff enforcement against Russia and set a roughly 60-day assessment window. Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating risks in the Middle East continue to support oil price premiums. On the agenda, the Nvidia GTC Berlin conference opens on Tuesday and runs until the 22nd; on Wednesday, the U.S. will release API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending October 16. In the evening, Beijing time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech, followed by earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research after the market closes.On Thursday, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17. Before the market opens, Nokia will release its earnings report, and after the market closes, Western Digital and MaxLinear will announce their earnings. On Friday, the U.S. will release the preliminary values for the October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the final value of one-year inflation expectations. On the same day, Japan will also release its September CPI and preliminary values for the October composite, manufacturing, and services PMIs, allowing the market to observe the price situation ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision on October 30.

Michael Passalacqua, Senior Advisor to the Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Head of the Innovation Working Group, introduced that after the Clarity Act was stalled, the CFTC is advancing Reg CAM, the "Crypto Asset Market" framework, which aims to provide a voluntary path for cryptocurrency trading platforms to come under the CFTC's nationwide unified regulation.This arrangement is primarily aimed at platforms that offer leveraged, margin, or financing trading to retail customers, allowing them to escape the patchwork of state money transmission licensing regulations; pure spot trading without leverage generally remains outside this mandatory framework. Passalacqua stated that the relevant rulemaking is currently in the public comment phase, and there is still no conclusion on whether the industry finds this proposal attractive.

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 84.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 15.5%.

The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller failed to boost the dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.4% on Friday, set to record its worst weekly performance since September 4. The dollar weakened against most major currencies, with the euro rising. Waller did not comment on monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund annual meeting, and investors reduced their bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.

Barclays expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December and January, whereas the previous forecast was for a rate hike in December of this year.

Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that the Federal Reserve's Productivity and Employment Special Working Group will hold a field hearing on November 16 in the San Francisco Bay Area, focusing on topics such as the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy. Waller announced this arrangement during the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and mentioned that the special working group will conduct an in-depth study of the effects of artificial intelligence on economic activity and the labor market.In June of this year, Waller established five special working groups composed of external experts to study key areas in monetary policy formulation. He previously indicated that these working groups are expected to submit policy recommendations to the Federal Reserve by the end of this year. Waller did not comment on monetary policy or the outlook for the U.S. economy this time.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that the Federal Reserve needs to consider financial stability risks.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller: We will hold several more monetary policy meetings this year, which will be a key moment for forming clear conclusions. Policy judgments will be made at the meetings in October and December.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that we currently have structural growth and a surge in investment.

Bai Xue, Deputy Director of Research at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that U.S. inflation rebounded significantly in September, with the CPI rising 3.7% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.6% year-on-year. The rebound in inflation has strengthened the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates this year, with an increased probability of holding steady in October and raising rates by 25 basis points in December.

In September, the U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, all exceeding market expectations. Following the data release, market bets on a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October rose to about 40%, up from around 20% the previous day.The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points last month, marking its first rate hike of 2023. The next rate decision will be announced on October 28, just 6 days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and economic activity remains resilient, providing grounds for further rate hikes.Economists from institutions such as Jefferies and Nationwide believe that there is data support for rate hikes in both October and December. Some analysts also expect that the Federal Reserve may consider the timing of the elections and potential economic vulnerabilities, choosing to delay until December. Historical data shows that the Federal Reserve rarely raises rates in October or November before midterm elections, and the market will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's remarks before entering the pre-meeting blackout period.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September PPI (Producer Price Index). Current market expectations are for an overall PPI month-on-month increase of +0.5% and a core PPI month-on-month increase of +0.3%.If the data exceeds expectations, it will boost the market's pricing for continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets; if it falls below expectations, it will cool tightening expectations, benefiting the performance of risk assets. Previous CPI data has already shown inflation resilience, and this PPI will further validate the persistence of inflation.