hedging

Bitwise's latest report shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to a six-year high. Bitwise's Head of Research for Europe, André Dragosch, stated that the last time the correlation reached this level was in 2020, during the period of multiple fiscal and monetary stimulus following the COVID-19 pandemic; meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market has dropped to a one-year low, suggesting a decoupling between hard assets and the stock market.The report believes that the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and gold is due to the "substantial intervention in the macro picture" by the U.S. government. Last month, the U.S. Treasury announced it would more than double the scale of government debt buybacks, leading to a weakening of the dollar, and investors flocked back to gold and Bitcoin; in the same week, U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, further undermining market confidence in the dollar. Bitwise stated that investors are no longer entangled in whether to hedge against currency depreciation with gold or Bitcoin, but are holding both simultaneously, and pointed out that "Bitcoin has been priced as a risk asset for its first fifteen years, and if this correlation trend continues, the next fifteen years could be very different."Driven by this, Bitcoin rose again this week, increasing nearly 6% within 24 hours, with the price briefly approaching $81,438.

According to BeInCrypto, "big short" investor Michael Burry increased his short position before Nvidia announced its earnings, while also buying Nvidia call options expiring in December this year with a strike price in the mid-$200 range as a hedge. Michael Burry stated that this option is not a bet on the stock price rising, and its cost can be covered by existing short and put option positions.Michael Burry believes that Nvidia's low price-to-earnings ratio may mask the valuation risks associated with its short-term monopoly position, and his own estimated theoretical value is significantly lower than the current market price; at the same time, he is concerned that the company will continue to expand capital expenditures, which may face earnings downgrade pressure after the peak of the AI investment cycle. In addition to Nvidia, Michael Burry has also newly established or increased short positions in Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, and Caterpillar, with his stock short positions accounting for over 21% of his portfolio (excluding put options).

Bitcoin Magazine cites a report from FOX Business stating that Bitcoin could become a tool to hedge against the weakening dollar. Related comments point out that we just need to wait for it to start rising; once it kicks off and re-enters mainstream discussion, the market demand for it will increase.The report also mentions that Bitcoin has risen by 20%. This viewpoint links Bitcoin's performance with the dollar's trend and mainstream market attention.

Bond traders adjust strategies, while the options market bets on hedging against the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut risk in 2027. Despite rising long-term bond yields, options traders are focusing on signs of a weakening U.S. economy, believing it could trigger a market reversal.July inflation and slowing consumer demand have cooled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, prompting the options market to adjust positions and reduce the magnitude of rate hikes in the coming months.

Founder of Formula News, Vida, stated that he has hedged through the BTC/USD1 perpetual contract when Bitcoin was around $63,000, exiting about one-third of his BTC position, while still retaining two-thirds of his spot holdings.He indicated that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, but the current BTC narrative has been significantly overshadowed by AI, and he expects that a new core narrative will be difficult to emerge in the next 1 to 2 years. He believes that the next bull market for Bitcoin may need to be driven by issues with U.S. Treasuries or the dollar, or rising concerns about fiat currency devaluation, and that prior to this, global assets may first experience repricing.Based on this judgment, he anticipates the opportunity to buy back the positions he exited in the range of $45,000 to $55,000 over the next 1 to 3 years, while retaining two-thirds of his BTC spot as a long-term base.

After the Coldcard hardware wallet firmware vulnerability was exploited, approximately 2,100 bitcoins were stolen, resulting in a loss of nearly $130 million. On-chain data shows that long-term holders transferred about 233,000 bitcoins from their wallets in the days before and after the incident, worth approximately $15 billion.Casa CEO Nick Neuman stated that some of the transferred funds came from Coldcard users migrating to multi-signature wallets, and Ledger and Trezor users also took similar measures after the incident. During the same period, about 22,000 bitcoins were transferred to exchanges. Coinkite has requested that users who generated recovery phrases using firmware versions 4.1 to 4.1.9 consider the related wallets compromised and immediately migrate to new recovery phrases. The aforementioned versions cover from March 2021 to July 2026.

DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev published a response to recent market speculation regarding DEXE trading, stating that the relevant transactions can be verified through centralized exchanges. Grachev indicated that the DWF Labs DEXE trading process is as follows: a large purchase of DEXE in 2024, partial selling for profit in 2025, another large purchase of DEXE around October 10, hedging profits in the first half of 2026, and when the funding rate turned negative, being forced to close short positions and increasing cash reserves by selling part of the DEXE spot.Grachev stated that all buying and selling operations were completed through centralized exchanges, where the trading platform holds relevant account information, and criticized some paid KOLs for spreading "misleading information."

According to Jinshi reports, Capital Economics strategist Thomas Mathews stated in a report that gold still holds value as a hedge against a sharp decline in the stock market. Recently, gold's performance has resembled that of a "risk" asset, with its price volatility comparable to that of the benchmark S&P 500 index.Although gold performed poorly during the Middle East conflict, its connection with real bond yields remains intact, and a decline in real yields is expected to boost gold.

According to Jinshi, Paul Ciana, the head of technical research at Bank of America, stated that investors should hedge against further rebounds in the S&P 500 index and prepare for a potential "three-wave correction" in the coming months. Ciana pointed out that the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 17% since the March low, but after reaching a recent peak on June 2, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue and could drop to 6,850 points, about 7.6% lower than current levels. He emphasized that as the risk of a correction accumulates, the price trend is "overstretched," and momentum is deteriorating, suggesting a "defensive stance" from July to September.

The second round of the World Cup group stage schedule is halfway through, with some teams having already secured or are close to securing qualification, while several teams still need to determine their fate in the third round. In today's matches, Spain defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0, Belgium drew 0-0 with Iran, Uruguay drew 2-2 with Cape Verde, and New Zealand lost 1-3 to Egypt. As the group stage enters a critical phase, situations where the pre-match high probability directions do not materialize are still frequently occurring, further amplifying the risk of unilateral positions for prediction market users.Base's native leverage prediction market OmenX officially launched the World Cup Hedge to Earn airdrop event today, currently distributing hedge positions to all Polymarket users with positions. After users connect their Polymarket wallets, OmenX will identify their eligible positions; if there are relevant events on the platform, corresponding hedge positions will be issued; if there are no matching relevant events, recommended position airdrops will be provided to help users experience hedging and position management.OmenX stated that Hedge to Earn aims to help prediction market users transition from "unilateral prediction" to "position management." For high-volatility events like the World Cup, users can obtain hedging rewards through OmenX, adding a layer of risk buffer to their existing Polymarket positions.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin and gold fell simultaneously as the market bets on rising interest rates pressuring non-yielding assets. Bitcoin dropped about 7% this week, while gold fell below $4,200 per ounce.The rebound was mainly driven by short covering, with over $500 million in bearish bets liquidated in the past week, while spot demand has not yet returned significantly. Traders are focusing on Wednesday's U.S. inflation data and the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. If inflation remains high, it could prompt interest rates to stay elevated, further pressuring risk assets. The rare simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold undermines their rationale as macro hedging tools.

According to CoinDesk, Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot stated that $60,000 is a key structural threshold for Bitcoin. Over the past year, a large amount of institutional funds (including ETF buyers, large holders, and short-term speculators) have bought Bitcoin in the $60,000 to $67,000 range. If the price continues to decline, unrealized losses will increase, and holding costs will rise, especially against the backdrop of rising AI stocks, which may prompt panic selling among investors. The open interest of put options with a strike price of $60,000 on Deribit has a notional value of over $1.2 billion.As Bitcoin approaches $60,000, market makers face Gamma risk from shorting put options and will be forced to sell spot or futures to balance their books, accelerating the decline. In addition, there is still excessive leveraged long positions in the system, and a drop below $60,000 could trigger more liquidations, creating a chain reaction.

Bitget announced the launch of the Delta Neutral Mode in its unified account. This feature will apply a differentiated automatic deleveraging (ADL) sorting mechanism to eligible hedging positions when the account meets preset Delta neutral conditions, thereby reducing the likelihood of reasonable hedging strategies being forcibly deleveraged in extreme market environments.The Delta Neutral Mode supports users in combining spot, full-margin leverage, and full-margin contract trading within the unified account framework, with the system synchronously assessing directional exposure at the account and asset level. This feature is suitable for funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies, among others.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast event titled "NACHO vs TACO: New Market Logic Under the Hormuz Stalemate" today at 8 PM. At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sister Mao, OxPink, the Sincere Little Taoist, and Mo Ran will be invited to attend and discuss popular topics such as the changes in global risk asset pricing logic against the backdrop of the ongoing Hormuz Strait stalemate, the linkage effects between commodities and the crypto market, as well as the future trends of BTC and the evolution of market risk aversion sentiment.

According to GlobeNewswire, IREN announced plans to issue $2 billion of convertible senior notes due in 2033, and grant initial purchasers an additional option to purchase up to $300 million. The notes are unsecured senior debt, expected to mature in December 2033, with proceeds partially used for capped call hedging transactions and the remainder for general corporate purposes and working capital.At the same time, IREN also plans to simultaneously unwind part of the capped call hedging positions related to the convertible bonds maturing in 2029 and 2030. The company stated that hedging institutions may engage in derivative and spot trading around IREN stock, which could affect the stock price and the initial conversion price of the new notes.Previously, IREN has become one of the most aggressive companies in the U.S. stock market in expanding AI data center and Bitcoin mining infrastructure, and this large-scale financing may further enhance its capital expenditure and expansion capabilities.

Glassnode pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through resistance and entered the $82,000-$83,000 range, market volatility has significantly rebounded. Options data shows that the implied volatility (IV) has rebounded sharply from the low in October 2025, with 1-week IV rising by 6 points, indicating a recovery in short-term options demand. The 25D skew continues to compress towards neutrality, with bearish hedge demand weakening.The volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive, and the future volatility priced in options is now higher than the realized volatility in the spot market. Additionally, there is a short-term gamma short cluster of nearly $2 billion around the $82,000 mark, and traders' hedging behavior may amplify the current price volatility.In the past 24 hours, selling call options accounted for 81% of trading flow, indicating that some traders are starting to cash in on gains, with overall positions leaning towards consolidation rather than panic hedging.

According to Decrypt, as the price of Bitcoin rises to around $81,000, its perpetual contract 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 66 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest duration this decade. Data shows that in a negative funding rate environment, shorts need to pay fees to longs, with the current annualized cost around 12%. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's price increased by about 12% in April, while open interest (OI) grew by about 12%, indicating that the market has not experienced typical panic short-selling.Analysts point out that this phenomenon mainly stems from institutional hedging behavior rather than pure bearish sentiment, including hedge funds shorting futures during redemption cycles, basis trading strategies (going long on related stocks while shorting Bitcoin), and mining companies hedging their Bitcoin assets as they shift to AI computing business.Historical data indicates that buying Bitcoin during similar negative funding rate phases has a probability of achieving positive returns within a 90-day period ranging from 83% to 96%. The market generally believes that if the price effectively breaks through the key resistance level of around $82,000, it may trigger a short covering rally, pushing the price further up; conversely, it may retreat to oscillate in the range of $70,000 to $75,000.

According to The Block, despite the renewed tensions between the United States and Iran disrupting expectations in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to fluctuations in the oil, stock, and cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin stabilized around $75,200 on Monday.Analysts stated that the net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week was $996.4 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, with institutional demand providing support for the market. However, the current market remains in a "fragile balance," with stablecoin balances continuing to grow, indicating that liquidity in the crypto market is more rotating internally rather than flowing out.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article that his fund Maelstrom is currently in a "No Trade Zone," and aside from a slight increase in long positions in Hyperliquid, trading operations have basically ceased in the first quarter.Hayes believes the current market faces two key variables: first, the large-scale proliferation of AI agents will destroy the flexible labor market in the West, leading to a wave of unemployment among knowledge workers and a deflationary financial collapse; second, the war against Iran led by the Trump administration has been ongoing for seven weeks, posing a serious threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to QCP Group, the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend, and oil prices returned above $100, with the market overall shifting towards safe-haven assets. BTC faced resistance at $74,000, while ETH fell from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports, and Iran retaliated with threats regarding the Strait of Mandeb, further widening the risk exposure.China is at the core of the situation due to its large imports of Iranian crude oil. If a blockade is implemented, the risk of US-China confrontation will significantly increase, and the market has not yet fully priced this in. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has shown strong resilience—implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have both fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating a decline in panic sentiment.BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $612.1 million in the past week, with institutional buying remaining active. The market's current focus has shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as Trump announced that the blockade will begin at 10 AM Eastern Time, and after multiple delays, the credibility of the policy itself has become one of the trading variables.